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ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS Ref: J2446 | April 2011 OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS WS (Bill) Cummings.

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Presentation on theme: "ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS Ref: J2446 | April 2011 OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS WS (Bill) Cummings."— Presentation transcript:

1 ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS Ref: J2446 | April 2011 OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS WS (Bill) Cummings

2 Cummings Economics / March RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS

3 DWELLING APPROVALS Far North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Number 3 Cummings Economics / March 2011

4 VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS Far North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. $M 4 Cummings Economics / March 2011

5 5 WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS SSD-URP Growth Growth Agriculture, forestry & fishing-15.38%-27.04% Mining-23.96%74.35% Manufacturing5.16%0.02% Electricity, gas, water & waste services53.28%21.68% Construction-14.66%71.93% Construction affected Wholesale trade-6.14%-8.48% Retail trade15.23%10.94% Accommodation & food services1.83%-2.44% Transport, postal & warehousing3.34%15.32% Information media & telecommunications-12.11%-3.94% Financial & insurance services-13.77%12.50% Construction affected Rental, hiring & real estate services-6.58%26.06% Construction affected Professional, scientific & technical services0.56%21.68% Administrative & support services4.06%3.65% Public administration & safety9.21%38.48% Education & training19.52%11.93% Health care & social assistance15.14%26.57% Arts & recreation services-6.14%2.40% Other services-12.81%12.45% Total1.21%16.35%

6 6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND & AUSTRALIA Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / March 2011

7 7 Workforce Far North Queensland Statistical Division (1) Average Employed (‘000) Average Unemployed (‘000) Total Workforce (‘000) Average Unemployment Rate % st half % 2 nd half % st half % 2 nd half % st half % 2 nd half % Growth 2 nd half 2010 on 1 st half 2008 No Percent+5.5%+63.8%+8.4% (1) Note: Cairns city and its servicing region. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / March 2011

8 8 ESTIMATED INCOME OF ‘BASE INDUSTRIES’ EARNING INCOME FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION (1) Estimated 2008/09 Income Tourism$2.5 bn Primary industries$1.7 bn Mining$0.7 bn Other (manufacturing, service industries, regional trade, etc) $1.0 bn Total$5.9 bn (1) Note: ie. approximate regional exports overseas and to the rest of Australia. Cummings Economics / March 2011

9 YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. % 9 Cummings Economics / March 2011 PILOTS DISPUTE ASIAN CRISIS ANSETT COLLAPSE

10 GROSS VALUE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (LONG TERM GROWTH 1982/83 TO 2008/09) Cummings Economics / March 2011

11 VALUE OF MINING FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. $M 11 Cummings Economics / March 2011

12 12 WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS Cummings Economics / March 2011 Growth Growth Agriculture, forestry & fishing-15.38%-27.04% A AGRICULTURE Mining-23.96%74.35% M MINING Manufacturing5.16%0.02% Electricity, gas, water & waste services53.28%21.68% Construction-14.66%71.93% Wholesale trade-6.14%-8.48% Retail trade15.23%10.94% Accommodation & food services1.83%-2.44% T TOURISM RELATED Transport, postal & warehousing3.34%15.32% Information media & telecommunications-12.11%-3.94% Financial & insurance services-13.77%12.50% Rental, hiring & real estate services-6.58%26.06% Professional, scientific & technical services0.56%21.68% Administrative & support services4.06%3.65% Public administration & safety9.21%38.48% G Education & training19.52%11.93% G GOVERNMENT SERVICES Health care & social assistance15.14%26.57% G Arts & recreation services-6.14%2.40% T TOURISM RELATED Other services-12.81%12.45% Total1.21%16.35%

13 13 Cummings Economics / March 2011

14 14 Cummings Economics / March 2011

15 15 LATE 2008 & 2009 Cummings Economics / March 2011

16 16 Monthly Passenger Movements Cairns Airport Percent Increase on Same Month Previous Year 2010 International Terminal Domestic Terminal Total Jan(-4.1%)(-11.8%)(-10.7%) Feb+27.1%*+6.3%+9.5% March+5.2%(-2.3%)(-1.1%) April+34.9%(-2.9%)+1.5% May+22.2%(-0.7%)+2.6% June+31.9%+8.7%+12.1% July+20.1%+4.2%+6.6% Aug+31.0%+4.1%+8.2% Sep+30.7%+8.0%+11.3% Oct+29.7%+6.9%+10.1% Nov+39.1%+5.7%+10.3% Dec+27.2%+15.0%+17.0% 2011 Jan+30.9%+0.8%+14.0% * Note: Affected by timing and Chinese New Year. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / March 2011

17 17 Cummings Economics / March 2011

18 18 FUTURE Cummings Economics / March 2011

19 19 FUTURE Cummings Economics / March 2011

20 20 RENTAL VACANCY RATES Cummings Economics / March 2011

21 21 Cummings Economics / March 2011

22 22 TURNAROUND FORCES Cummings Economics / March 2011 NATIONAL SETTINGS AUD / INTEREST RATES LOCAL CONDITIONS POPULATION GROWTH AT STANDSTILL NOT SPENDING / SAVING TOURISM DIRECT CHINESE FLIGHTS CONFERENCE, SPORT, EDUCATION PNG IMPROVED FLYIN SERVICES TRANSPORT LINKS MINING FLY IN CENTRAL QLD / OTHER HINTERLAND MINING COPPERSTRIKE, KAGARA, CONSOLIDATED TIN WEPIA EXPANSION GOVERNMENT CATCHUP UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL (TERTIARY) CULTRAL MARITIME NAVY, CARGO SUPERYACHT AGRICULTURE MAREEBA SUGAR EXPANSION BIOFUELS

23 The Cairns Economy Cummings Economics 38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870 Ph: | | Fax: Ref: J2239 | 31 July


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