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Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and.

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Presentation on theme: "Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and."— Presentation transcript:

1 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 1 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and lessons for the Belgium Survey Jozef Pacolet & Sigrid Merckx HIVA Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven SUBLEC International workshop on A survey instrument for revealing social and Fiscal Fraud Brussels, 25 February 2008, Federal Public Service Social Security HIVA Catholic University of Leuven - CREPP University of Liège - Centre de sociologie du Travail, de l’Emploi et de la formation, University of Brussels Federal Public Service Social Security and Federal Science Policy

2 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 2 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 # Some overview of 24 recent studies using surveys # Conclusions on design and results # Some Belgian experience # Relevance for measuring undeclared work, underground economy # Conclusions for planned research in Belgium 1.Content

3 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 3 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Overview and title YearCountryTitleAuthors Denmark Mogensen V./Pedersen S NorwaySurvey on the hidden labour market in Norway Isachsen and Str ø m Sweden Laurin Sweden Wahlund BelgiumEnquete sur les activités effectuées en dehors du travail Pestieau Germany Wolff Spain Ministery of Economic Affairs The Netherlan ds ‘Working in the Netherlands’Koopmans BelgiumAttitude towards the policy of the government, the government’s spending and paying of taxes Geeroms H Norway Goldstein Germany Lamnek S., Olbrich G. & Schäfer W.J /1998Sweden Pedersen S Sweden Riksskatteverket

4 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 4 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Overview and title BelgiumPerception of the behaviour of the government and the justice of the unemployment benefit Tratsaert K. & De Witte H Czech and Slovak Republic Hanousek J. & Palda F Great Britain Pedersen S Denmark Pedersen S Germany Pedersen S /2002Norway Pedersen S EstoniaWorking Life Barometer in the Baltic Countries 2002: Antila J. and Ylöstalo P: LatviaWorking Life Barometer in the Baltic Countries 2002 Antila J. and Ylöstalo P: LithuaniaWorking Life Barometer in the Baltic Countries 2002 Antila J. and Ylöstalo P: Swedish Tax Agency BelgiumEurobarometer: Undeclared work in the European Union Europese Commissie

5 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 5 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Definition # Broad definitions: undeclared work, underground economy, social and fiscal fraud, illegal activities, evasion # Multidimensional phenomena, # Many institutions involved (social security, employment, fiscal) # Need for exhaustiveness remains # Need for a balanced policy making and policy debate for fair and efficient taxation and fight against fraud

6 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 6 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 #Reason: research interest, policy making interest, controllers interest #Describing and understanding forms and causes of undeclared activities #Measuring size and structure #Targeting audits and improve fight against undeclared work #Modelling fraud detection and data mining #Opinion and value research …is of relevance for policy making and rising awareness of the fight against undeclared work #Could be organised as action research (again marketing campaigns - might be the role of information and clearing house on undeclared work - cfr. Policies on drugs and alcohol misuse) #Relevance of comparability with administrative and macro- economic information 4.Aim, Use and usability

7 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 7 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 # On informal economy # Undeclared work (main interest of Eurobarometer?) # Benefit fraud # Fiscal fraud : undeclared income and or high/false tax deductions # Labour income, other income, VAT, estate taxes, transfer taxes # Some include also avoidance (distinction between evasion and avoidance sometimes difficult, sometime substitutes) # Detailed or not: some surveys included categories of fraud, non respect of certain types of regulation (make them sector, country specific) 5.1Topics

8 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 8 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Dimensions/ determinants of fraud Tax morale, culture Benefit:tax and contributions Level; red tape Cost: audit probability, Punishment, penalty rate

9 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 9 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Target group # Households # Firms # Benefit earners # Sampling: self selected, random, proportional, over weighting categories at risk

10 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 10 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Part of undeclared work with population based survey Type undeclared work Individual demand Firm Demand Individual (supplier) Covered from demand and supply side Covered from demand size Firm (supplier)Covered from demand size Not covered Source: A. Riedmann, Eurobarometer pilot survey,13 December 2007

11 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 11 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Target group # Trade off between same as Eurobarometer and larger sample # Versus broadened scope: looking for exhaustiveness # Limit to supply and or demand # Overweigting certain categories, industries

12 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 12 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 # Focus groups # Qualitative opinion research and on facts and figures # Random route method # Population based 6.Methodologies

13 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 13 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 # Experimental # Face to face # Post # Telephone # Internet low cost # Mixed mode (internet, post, telephone) # Using randomized response techniques # Direct or indirect, open or covert: clear difference in self reported fraud 7.Mode

14 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 14 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 # Research institutes and universities # Statistical offices # Marketing institutes # Included in omnibus or other ongoing regular surveys 8.Who is doing the survey

15 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 15 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 # Problems of non-participation, item-non respons, underreporting and underestimation, socially desirable answers # Share of population using or supplying undeclared work: # Volume in hours, additional information on black wages # Translated in volume of undeclared work as share of GDP: lower bound estimates 9.Results: rensponse, size, explanation, problems

16 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 16 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Some illustration of the difference in definition and the need of reconciliation

17 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 17 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Some illustration of the difference in definition and the need of reconciliation

18 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 18 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Some illustration of the difference in definition and the need of reconciliation

19 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 19 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Some illustration of the difference in definition and the need of reconciliation

20 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 20 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Some illustration of the difference in definition and the need of reconciliation

21 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 21 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Some illustration of the difference in definition and the need of reconciliation

22 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 22 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Some illustration of the difference in definition and the need of reconciliation

23 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 23 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 # Long tradition of scientific interest in social and fiscal fraud # Mixed use during this period of as well administrative information, national accounts, macro-economic estimates and surveys # Remarkable persistence of methods and estimates (or accepted estimate of undeclared work) 11.1Belgium

24 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 24 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February 2008 # - Pestieau on informal activities, announced as ‘activities others than (formal) work’ # -Geeroms (1984) on tax evasion and avoidance, announce as survey on government, government spending and paying taxes # -Ver Heyen, Tratsaert, Van Gyes, De Witte (2002) on benefit fraud in unemployment insurance, announced as survey on role of government and justice # -Pacolet, Baeyens, 2007, business survey on social fraud announced as study on unfair competition # -Perelman used household budget survey to estimate possible undeclared work for self-employed: so Belgium : five examples of (using) surveys

25 Jozef Pacolet, Sigrid Merckx Higher Institute of Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven Surveys on social and fiscal fraud: state of the art and relevance for Belgium 25 SUBLEC International Workshop on a survey instrument for revealing social and fiscal fraud Brussels 25 February Some conclusions # Several target groups thinkable: how to be as exhaustive as possible # Social and fiscal fraud taken together, even avoidance, and benefit fraud # Leave out other criminal activities as well as informal work for own use # Should include tax morale, cost and benefits of fraud # Why not label it as a research on the cost and benefits of paying taxes and the welfare state # Household, household and independent worker or firm oriented # Contradiction between explicit commissioned surveys on fraud and the need to make it covert, disguised # Now concentrated on households including independent workers, free professions # Implicitly benefit earners included # Need to include other groups at risk (as illegal migrants) # Potential for other business surveys and surveys within the inspectorates # Additional source of information beyond macro-economic, national accountants and administrative information


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