1 Today’s Talk Current state of the labor force Delineated by: Education levelAge rangeRetirementIssues faced by the labor force
2 Issues faced by current labor force Retirement becoming less of a possibilityWorking through retirementHealth care uncertainty from implementation of the ACABlock grant funding moving in two directionsLess overall being appropriatedMore being earmarked for specific programs (medicare, medicaid, schip)
3 Current Labor Market UE rate Poverty Inflation rate vs. Wage increases (impact on purchasing power) or real wage increases
4 Unemployment picture A very mixed picture Discouraged workers seem to be slowly decliningOverall decline in participation in the labor force by males in generalUE down year over year (Aug ‘13 - Aug ‘14) in all but 5 states (up in AL, AK, WV, flat in VA, WY)Non-farm payrolls increased in 49 states and DC, decreased in only 1 state (AK) from Aug ‘13 -Aug ‘14UE by education levelJOLTS Report
5 Discouraged workersAs people are displaced from the economy during an economic downturn, some become frustrated by the lack of jobs and choose to exit the labor force. As the economy recovers, they re-enter the labor force thereby “raising” the unemployment rate.
6 Male labor force participation There has been a steady decline in participation in the labor force by males, 16 yrs or older (BLS data).1992: 75.8%2002: 74.1%2012: 70.2%2022 (proj): 67.6%
7 Labor force participation is a mixed bag as well There has been a steady increase in participation in the labor force by males, 65 yrs or older (BLS data).1992: 16.1%2002: 17.9%2012: 23.6%2022 (proj): 27.2%
8 Impact on marketOlder workers are “choosing” not to retire at “traditional age.”Limits opportunity for those entering traditional working ageAlso limits promotional opportunity
10 UE by state National rate 5.9% (Sep ‘14) DC, NV, RI, MS, GA all above 7.5%AZ, KY, OR, CA, MI, TN all between %UT, SD, NE, ND all below 3.7%IA, NH, MN, HI, VT all between 4.1% - 4.5%Nearly all states (except AL,AK,WV) have been seeing improvements in their labor markets.
11 UE by education (Sep ‘13 - ‘14) Less than a HS diploma: 10.4% => 8.4%HS grad: 7.5% => 5.3%Some college/associates degree: 6.1% => 5.4%Bachelor’s degree or higher: 3.7% => 2.9%Seasonally adjusted
12 JOLTS (Job Openings and labor turnover survey) QUITS Rate – leaving a job voluntarilyHas remained lowSafety being highly valued over higher pay at a new jobLow bargaining power with employerPerceived competition in the job market is keeping people locked into their jobs
13 Different problems for different levels HS grad/less than HS face unemployment as well as working poverty:EITCFood stamps/SNAPHousing SubsidiesTANF/Job TrainingMinimum wageChild care issues
14 Earned Income Tax Credit Monies dedicated to the “working poor” that can only be claimed by filing a tax returnAverage benefit is $2,33527 million claimsOverall roughly 21% of people who qualify don’t claim their benefit
15 SNAP usage15.1% of the population claimed SNAP benefits in June ‘14 (46.5 million)1 year (June ‘13-’14) =>2.65% decline in usage9 states increased, 41 + DC declined5 years (June ‘09-’14) =>32.4% increase in usage48 states + DC increased, 2 states declined
24 Real wageChange in prices of consumer goods vs the change in nominal wages and average workweekCPI increase -.3% (Aug ‘14)Real wage change: +.6%Average workweek change: +.0%Average weekly earnings change: +.3%