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STATE OF THE LABOR FORCE Kyle Hurst, U Denver.

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Presentation on theme: "STATE OF THE LABOR FORCE Kyle Hurst, U Denver."— Presentation transcript:

1 STATE OF THE LABOR FORCE Kyle Hurst, U Denver

2 TODAY’S TALK ● Current state of the labor force ○ Delineated by: ■ Education level ■ Age range ■ Retirement ● Issues faced by the labor force

3 ISSUES FACED BY CURRENT LABOR FORCE ● Retirement becoming less of a possibility ● Working through retirement ● Health care uncertainty from implementation of the ACA ● Block grant funding moving in two directions ○ Less overall being appropriated ○ More being earmarked for specific programs (medicare, medicaid, schip)

4 CURRENT LABOR MARKET ● UE rate ● Poverty ● Inflation rate vs. Wage increases (impact on purchasing power) or real wage increases

5 UNEMPLOYMENT PICTURE ❖ A very mixed picture ➢ Discouraged workers seem to be slowly declining ➢ Overall decline in participation in the labor force by males in general ➢ UE down year over year (Aug ‘13 - Aug ‘14) in all but 5 states (up in AL, AK, WV, flat in VA, WY) ➢ Non-farm payrolls increased in 49 states and DC, decreased in only 1 state (AK) from Aug ‘13 -Aug ‘14 ➢ UE by education level ➢ JOLTS Report

6 DISCOURAGED WORKERS As people are displaced from the economy during an economic downturn, some become frustrated by the lack of jobs and choose to exit the labor force. As the economy recovers, they re-enter the labor force thereby “raising” the unemployment rate.

7 MALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION There has been a steady decline in participation in the labor force by males, 16 yrs or older (BLS data). ● 1992: 75.8% ● 2002: 74.1% ● 2012: 70.2% ● 2022 (proj): 67.6%

8 LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION IS A MIXED BAG AS WELL There has been a steady increase in participation in the labor force by males, 65 yrs or older (BLS data). ● 1992: 16.1% ● 2002: 17.9% ● 2012: 23.6% ● 2022 (proj): 27.2%

9 IMPACT ON MARKET Older workers are “choosing” not to retire at “traditional age.” Limits opportunity for those entering traditional working age Also limits promotional opportunity

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11 UE BY STATE National rate 5.9% (Sep ‘14) DC, NV, RI, MS, GA all above 7.5% AZ, KY, OR, CA, MI, TN all between % UT, SD, NE, ND all below 3.7% IA, NH, MN, HI, VT all between 4.1% - 4.5% Nearly all states (except AL,AK,WV) have been seeing improvements in their labor markets.

12 UE BY EDUCATION (SEP ‘13 - ‘14) Less than a HS diploma: 10.4% => 8.4% HS grad: 7.5% => 5.3% Some college/associates degree: 6.1% => 5.4% Bachelor’s degree or higher: 3.7% => 2.9%

13 JOLTS (JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER SURVEY)  QUITS Rate – leaving a job voluntarily  Has remained low  Safety being highly valued over higher pay at a new job  Low bargaining power with employer  Perceived competition in the job market is keeping people locked into their jobs

14 DIFFERENT PROBLEMS FOR DIFFERENT LEVELS HS grad/less than HS face unemployment as well as working poverty: EITC Food stamps/SNAP Housing Subsidies TANF/Job Training Minimum wage Child care issues

15 EARNED INCOME TAX CREDIT Monies dedicated to the “working poor” that can only be claimed by filing a tax return Average benefit is $2, million claims Overall roughly 21% of people who qualify don’t claim their benefit

16 SNAP USAGE 15.1% of the population claimed SNAP benefits in June ‘14 (46.5 million) 1 year (June ‘13-’14) =>2.65% decline in usage ● 9 states increased, 41 + DC declined 5 years (June ‘09-’14) =>32.4% increase in usage ● 48 states + DC increased, 2 states declined

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19 TANF NUMBERS Decline in claimants Oct ‘13 - March ‘ mil average # of family claims (Oct ‘13) mil average # of family claims (Mar ‘14)

20 MARRIAGE PICTURE Pew research released in September paints a picture of the changing face of marriage for today and into the near future

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25 REAL WAGE Change in prices of consumer goods vs the change in nominal wages and average workweek CPI increase -.3% (Aug ‘14) Real wage change: +.6% Average workweek change: +.0% Average weekly earnings change: +.3%

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