We think you have liked this presentation. If you wish to download it, please recommend it to your friends in any social system. Share buttons are a little bit lower. Thank you!
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byDeclan Woolf
Modified about 1 year ago
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY © OECD/IEA Our Global Energy Future Looking beyond the economic crisis Ministry of Economy Warsaw 12 May 2009 Mr. Nobuo Tanaka Executive Director International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA Weakening economy drives oil demand revisions Two year demand contraction in 08/09 first since early-1980s OECD hit hard, but clear signs that non-OECD is slowing now too Latest GDP estimates suggest -1.4% for 2009, with consensus of gradual recovery in 2010 Prices bottoming-out in the face of OPEC supply cuts, and a degree of post- G20 ‘bounce’ IEA April 2008 Oil Market Report
© OECD/IEA Evaluating oil supply-side impacts 3 Supply also affected, on weak demand, low prices, credit crunch & investment slippage 、 2009 forecast already down by 1.7 mb/d since July 2008, excluding 2008 baseline changes Canada & Russia taking a hit in terms of investment & likely output $50/bbl oil unlikely to see extensive shut-ins of current output per se But impact of lower spend on new projects and prevailing decline rates at mature fields
© OECD/IEA World Oil Production by Source IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 Business as Usual Scenario Around 65 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth and offset decline 20 mb/d 45 mb/d IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
© OECD/IEA Long-term oil-supply cost curve (with $50 per tonne of CO 2 ) A carbon price of $50 per tonne of CO 2 would increase the cost of producing non-conventional oil the most – by as much as $30 per barrel – due to its higher energy intensity
© OECD/IEA European Responses to January 2009 Gas Supply Disruption Interconnector UK-BE reversed BBL NL-UK reduced Yamal increase Blue Stream increase Increase Germany -Croatia Increasing Croatian production share off- take Reverse flow Czech to Slovakia Hungary increase to Serbia & Bosnia Reverse flow from Greece to Bulgaria Additional spot LNG to Greece & Turkey 7 Jan (immediate) 10 Jan. 16 Jan. 18 Jan. Timeline of Actions
© OECD/IEA Cumulative energy supply investment in Business as Usual, Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch once the economy recovers Power generation 50% Transmission & distribution 50% Mining 91% Shipping & ports 9% Exploration and development 80% Refining 16% Shipping 4% Exploration & development 61% LNG chain 8% Transmission & distribution 31% Power 52% $13.6 trillion Oil 24% $6.3 trillion Gas 21% $5.5 trillion Coal 3% $0.7 trillion Biofuels <1% $0.2 trillion
© OECD/IEA Energy-related CO 2 emissions Business as Usual Scenario 97% of the projected increase in emissions between 2006 & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries – three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone Gigatonnes International marine bunkers and aviation OECD - gas OECD - oil OECD - coal Non-OECD - gas Non-OECD - oil Non-OECD - coal
© OECD/IEA Energy-related CO 2 emissions 450 Policy Scenario In the 450 Policy Scenario emissions peak around 2020,and then decline by more than 1/3 to reach 26 Gt in 2030 International marine bunkers and aviation OECD - gas OECD - oil OECD - coal Non-OECD - gas Non-OECD - oil Non-OECD - coal Gigatonnes
© OECD/IEA Reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions in the 450 Policy Scenario Gigatonnes OECD+ Non-OECD Reference Scenario 450 Policy Scenario CCS - 21% Renewables & biofuels - 18% Nuclear - 14% Energy efficiency - 47% CCS - 10% Renewables & biofuels - 25% Nuclear - 6% Energy efficiency - 59% 35% (5.2 Gt reduction) 65% (9.5 Gt reduction) Energy Efficiency 54% CCS 14% Nuclear 9% Renewables & biofuels 23% World total OECD and non-OECD countries must both work towards reducing CO2 emissions Energy efficiency plays a key role for both OECD and non-OECD countries To inform the international climate negotiations, the IEA will release an early excerpt of the WEO 2009 climate change analysis, to coincide with post-Kyoto negotiations this September
© OECD/IEA Total power generation capacity today and in 2030 by scenario In the 450 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change – with CCS, renewables and nuclear each playing a crucial role Other renewables Wind Hydro Nuclear Coal and gas with CCS Gas Coal GW 1.2 x today 1.5 x today 13.5 x today 2.1 x today 1.8 x today 12.5 x today 15% of today’s coal & gas capacity Today Reference Scenario Policy Scenario 2030
© OECD/IEA Roadmaps can accelerate deployment of key clean energy technologies Supply side CCS power generation Coal – IGCC Coal – USCSC Nuclear III + IV Solar – PV Solar – CSP Wind Biomass – IGCC & co- combustion Electricity networks 2nd generation biofuels Demand side Energy efficiency in buildings Energy efficient motor systems Efficient ICEs Heat pumps Plug-ins and electric vehicles Fuel cell vehicles Industrial CCS Solar heating Efficient industry processes (starting with Cement) Work has already begun on technologies shown in green, and these roadmaps will be launched later in 2009.
© OECD/IEA Global electricity generation (450 ppm Scenario) Renewables and nuclear power will increase 41% 18% 2% 6% 22% 20% 5% 9% ( 1% ) 21% 16% 1% 4% 18% 40% 15% 18%
© OECD/IEA Nuclear power needs to play a larger role in 2050 Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2008 shows that significant increase of nuclear generation in both OECD countries and non-OECD countries is essential to halve the current level of energy related CO2 emission by 2050.
© OECD/IEA IEA 25 energy efficiency policy recommendations across 7 priority areas 1. Across sectors 1.1Measures for increasing investment in energy efficiency; 1.2National energy efficiency strategies and goals; 1.3Compliance, monitoring, enforcement and evaluation of energy efficiency measures; 1.4Energy efficiency indicators; 1.5Monitoring and reporting progress with the IEA energy efficiency recommendations themselves. 2. Buildings 2.1Building codes for new buildings; 2.2Passive Energy Houses and Zero Energy Buildings; 2.3Policy packages to promote energy efficiency in existing buildings; 2.4Building certification schemes; 2.5Energy efficiency improvements in glazed areas. 3. Appliances 3.1Mandatory energy performance requirements or labels; 3.2Low-power modes, including standby power, for electronic and networked equipment; 3.3Televisions and “set-top” boxes; 3.4Energy performance test standards and measurement protocols. 4. Lighting 4.1 Best practice lighting and the phase- out of incandescent bulbs; 4.2 Ensuring least-cost lighting in non- residential buildings and the phase-out of inefficient fuel-based lighting. 5. Transport 5.1 Fuel-efficient tyres; 5.2 Mandatory fuel efficiency standards for light-duty vehicles; 5.3 Fuel economy of heavy-duty vehicles; 5.4 Eco-driving. 6. Industry 6.1Collection of high quality energy efficiency data for industry; 6.2Energy performance of electric motors; 6.3Assistance in developing energy management capability; 6.4Policy packages to promote energy efficiency in small and medium-sized enterprises. 7. Utilities 7.1Utility end-use energy efficiency schemes USD 128 Billion in energy efficiency stimulus from IEA Countries USD 128 Billion in energy efficiency stimulus from IEA Countries
© OECD/IEA Impact of financial crisis on global investment in renewable energy Renewable energy investment has collapsed due to the financial crisis – which has dried up sources of project finance – and lower fossil-fuel prices …. Source: NEF, IEA analysis Geothermal Marine & small-hydro Biomass Solar Wind Billion dollars -38% … IEA G-8 paper estimates spending in 2009 will drop by 38% relative to 2008
© OECD/IEA adapted from VGB 2007; efficiency – HHV,net Average worldwide ~28.4% ~1110 gCO2/kWh ~36% ~880 gCO2/kWh EU average ~42% ~740 gCO2/kWh State-of-the art PC/IGCC CCS <2020 ~48% ~665 gCO2/kWh Advanced R&D but deep cuts only by Carbon Capture and Storage – energy efficiency alone is not enough gCO2/kWh
© OECD/IEA Carbon Capture and Storage - only 4 full-scale projects exist today G8 goal: 20 full-scale demonstrations announced by 2010
© OECD/IEA CO 2 Storage Prospectivity Source: Bradshaw, J. and Dance, T. (2004): “Mapping geological storage prospectivity of CO2 for the world’s sedimentary basins and regional source to sink matching,” in (E.S. Rubin, D.W. Keith and C.F. Gilboy eds.), GHGT-7, Proc. Seventh International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, Vancouver, B.C., Canada, September 5-9, 2004.
© OECD/IEA Shifting to the 450 ppm scenario requires significant investment Huge investment in power plants and energy efficiency is required to shift the world onto a 450 ppm trajectory Power plantsEnergy efficiency Billion dollars (2007) 450 Policy Scenario (additional to 550) 550 Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA Total oil production in 2030 by scenario Curbing CO2 emissions would improve energy security by cutting demand for fossil fuels, but even in the 450 Policy Scenario, OPEC production increases by 12 mb/d from now to Reference Scenario Policy Scenario Policy Scenario 2030 Non-OPEC OPEC mb/d 12 mb/d 9 mb/d 16 mb/d
© OECD/IEA Summary For energy security need to diversify oil and gas sources must ensure continued supply-side investment to meet oil demand and address production decline in mature fields and investment throughout the gas supply chain For energy security and climate change mitigation must invest in low carbon technologies: CCS, renewables, nuclear and energy efficiency must all be embraced Economic crisis is an opportunity to place a Clean Energy New Deal at the heart of economic stimulus packages everywhere.
© OECD/IEA Mtoe Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas.
16 th April 2008 Energy Outlook View of an International Oil Company Thierry PFLIMLIN President & CEO Total Oil Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd 2 nd ARF Seminar on.
© OECD/IEA 2012 Security of Supply: Developing Oil and Gas Resources in the European Arctic Bo Diczfalusy Director of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology.
Agenda Item 8.4: Trade and the crisis Infrastructure: Recent developments and outlook for traffic flows and capacities.
© OECD/IEA The current picture A global oversupply.
© OECD/IEA The global energy outlook after the crisis Presentation to Delegation from the Federal tariff Service, Russian Federation Paris, 27 May.
Petroleum Supply and Market Outlook Briefing for the 7 th Annual International Airport Operations/Jet Fuel Conference Orlando, Florida Mike Burdette Petroleum.
U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis IEA and EIA: Similarities and Differences in Projections and Approaches.
IMC-ERTF Panel Discussion on ‘Crude Oil Market Outlook and Implications for India’ January 27, 2016 Global market may begin to Rebalance in Q G.
OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programme 1 Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next? Simon Pirani Senior Research.
Presentation Title Speaker Name Date Journalist Breakfast Briefing Roger Jones, Co-Head of Commodities Kevin Norrish, Director, Commodities Research Bharath.
Petroleum and Natural Gas Outlook Briefing for the National Association of State Energy Officials 2005 Energy Outlook Conference Washington, DC Mike Burdette.
WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK. Increase in World Energy Production and Consumption Almost all the increase in production occurs outside the OECD, compared.
Energy Market Access: New Market Realities of the Natural Gas Landscape The International Economic Forum of the Americas.
1 Tehmina Khan World Bank May 6, 2014 Global Outlook Update Tightening conditions; narrowing options
U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis American Gas Association Legislative Forum May 1, 2012| Miami, FL.
GLOBAL ENERGY CHALLENGES: COULD WE FACE THEM? - Astana, 4-5 September 2008 Slav Slavov Regional Manager for Europe & Central Asia.
Green Growth OECD – CANADA 50 YEARS 3 rd June 2011 Simon Upton, Director, Environment.
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Development of both oil and natural gas reserves in the United States is essential to meet future demand for energy The United.
31 Mount Pleasant, London WC1X 0AD UK Tel Fax LONDON | BEIJING | PHILADELPHIA | WASHINGTON The Energy.
Global LP Gas Supply & Demand Prepared For: 22 nd World LP Gas Forum October 8, 2009 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Prepared by: Ken Otto Purvin & Gertz, Inc.
RCC Western Balkans in 2020 Sarajevo Giulio Moreno Head of Office EBRD Bosnia and Herzegovina February 2010.
Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd. (D&B) National Commercial Bank (NCB)
International Energy Outlook 2010 With Projections to 2035.
Prospects For Recovery: An Economic Update Karr Ingham Petroleum Economist Texas Alliance of Energy Producers Webinar, May 24, 2016
China and Its Impact on World Energy Consumption Dan Westbrook.
Institute for 21st Century Energy U.S. Chamber of Commerce Karen A. Harbert President and CEO Institute for 21st Century Energy U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
1 Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Climate Policy in AIECE November 5, 2008 Olavi Rantala - Paavo Suni The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
Steve Hamman Executive Director, Risk Mitigation & Strategy Fluor Supply Chain Solutions Fabrication Market Update Steel Materials Forum Panelist.
The Global Crisis - Role of Regional Integration and EU Accession Milica Uvalic University of Perugia Western Balkans in 2020 – Overcoming the Economic.
The oil and tanker market INTERTANKO Tanker Event Tokyo 13 May 2009 Manager Research and Projects.
1 The COHESION System of HERMIN Models: CSHM John Bradley (EMDS), Zuzana Gakova (DG REGIO), Philippe Monfort (DG REGIO), Gerhard Untiedt (GEFRA), Janusz.
Research Department 1 Global Economic Crisis and the Israeli Economy Herzliya conference Dr. Karnit Flug Research Director, Bank of Israel February 2009.
© OECD/IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Washington DC, 27 November 2012.
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could.
The New Economic Landscape William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The Progressive Manufacturing Summit 2009.
© OECD/IEA 2013 The outlook for electricity in Western Europe Matthew Wittenstein IEA Gas, Coal & Power Markets Division 26 November 2014 CERN.
Flax Market Outlook 2011 and Beyond Flax Market Outlook 2011 and Beyond Jan 2011 Presented by: Chuck Penner.
© OECD/IEA 2010 Energy Policies of the Czech Republic 2010 In-depth Review Energy Policies of the Czech Republic 2010 In-depth Review Prague, 7 October.
The challenge in UK power generation Steve Riley, Executive Director, Europe London, 3 December 2010.
Going nowhere? Will high energy prices change U.S. travel? David L. Greene Corporate Fellow Oak Ridge National Laboratory 87 th Annual Meeting of the TRB.
1 Energy A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies Marten Westrup European Commission, DG ENER Unit A1.
International Developments in Oil and Natural Gas Markets and their Impact on Arab Countries Christopher Allsopp Oxford Institute for Energy Studies New.
© OECD/IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook 2012 Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director, IEA Warszawa, 14 December 2012.
© OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights Pawel Olejarnik Research Analyst International Energy Agency.
36 Offices in 17 Countries Beyond the Media Stories: What’s Happening in the USA? John Thomas Global Real Estate Practice Group Leader.
$100 $150 ? Next Stop for Oil Prices: $100 or $150? Macroeconomic Advisers Quarterly Meeting June 2008 John Cook, Director EIA Petroleum Division June.
“Energiewende” and cost mechanisms Charlotte Loreck Energy and Climate Division Öko-Institut e.V. Berlin for Heinrich Böll Foundation 5 December 2012.
Why and How will global economic crisis effect Armenia's economy? 2009 Yerevan Vahram Ghushchyan, Ph.D School of Corporate Governance.
© OECD/IEA 2010 Russian Annual Meeting of Energy Regulators Moscow, 1-2 April 2010 Investment in the power sector and regulatory challenges and practices:
© 2017 SlidePlayer.com Inc. All rights reserved.