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Europe 100% renewable in 2050 A logical explanation for a realistic, affordable and feasible vision Kristian Petrick July 2009 Ecofys International www.ecofys.com.

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Presentation on theme: "Europe 100% renewable in 2050 A logical explanation for a realistic, affordable and feasible vision Kristian Petrick July 2009 Ecofys International www.ecofys.com."— Presentation transcript:

1 Europe 100% renewable in 2050 A logical explanation for a realistic, affordable and feasible vision Kristian Petrick July 2009 Ecofys International

2 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 2 With a fascinating vision, mankind is able to accomplish amazing projects Introduction „I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the Earth." John F. Kennedy – May 25, 1961

3 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 3 What is required to be convinced of a vision? – An open mind to follow logical arguments Agenda 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a)Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b)Examples c)Energy Outlook a)Cost curves b)Business vs. public economics a)Urgency b)Stakeholder Analysis c)Recommendations Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“

4 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 4 Europe Think in “energy self-sufficient units” – and demand, efficiency and renewables go hand-in-hand Wind parks, solar plants, geothermal, wave power, … Photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat pumps,.... Homes and buildings Regions / Countries Devices: Solar powered phones, laptops,... Appliances: Washing machines, motors,... Small hydro, biomass plants, solar parks,... Apartment buildings, vehicles,... Cities, Industries Villages and municipalities 1.a Concept of Energy Autonomy Animated slide

5 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 5 1.b Examples: Devices Integrate the power supply in a practical and innovative way – making devices independent from the grid Solar-calculators Existing… Solar-mobile phones Solar-MP3 Player Solar-Notebooks Missing… Designed by Albert Bellot, Econcern

6 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 6 Accept higher efficiency standards and generate your own energy – and be proud of it 1.b Examples: Appliances and buildings New appliances only with highest standards allowed South Gas / Oil Future …Today … „Passive House“ „House with PV“ „Self-sufficient House“ „Power House“ South

7 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 7 Make efficient products attractive – not necessarily cheap! – with target-group specific marketing 1.b Examples: Vehicles Still missing …Existing … 3-liter Porsche 3-liter Lupo E-Car ThinkE-Mini

8 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 8 Consider renewable energy for your company – you find it already for competitive prices in Europe 1.b Examples: Industry Aluminium plant with solar power, Spain Aluminium plant with wind and ocean power, UK Aluminium plant with hydro power, Norway Aluminium plant with biomass power, Netherlands Maybe soon …Today …

9 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 9 Imagine yourself, your neighbours and your region using energy from nearby 1.b Examples: Municipalities and regions Coal Uranium Gas Oil Europe in 2050 …Europe today …

10 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 10 Renewable energies Fossil and nuclear energies Energy Conservation / Savings Energy Efficiency Intelligent („passive“) use of energy 100% „Active“ use of energy 2050 Small or easy applications/installationsComplex industries/cities Invest consistently in renewables and use energy intelligently – and the vision comes automatically true 1.c Energy Outlook Energy Use Today

11 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 11 So it may be realistic, but what is with the costs? Agenda 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a)Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b)Examples c)Energy Outlook a)Cost curves b)Business vs. public economics a)Urgency b)Stakeholder Analysis c)Recommendations Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“

12 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 12 Accept that the times of cheap energy will not come back – but realize that only renewables can get cheaper 2.a Cost curves Time developing countries Countries in transition developed countries Energy costs Renewable energies Economies of scale Technical improvements Affordable for... Fossil/nuclear energies Depletion Internalization of emissions Security of supply Today (depending on technology and location)

13 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 13 Challenge the ones who say we cannot afford 100% renewables – let them define which costs they mean Equipment & financing State Fossil economy Fossil Fuels & security of supply €€ € kWh subsidies / support schemes taxes € Equipment & financing State Renewable economy € € kWh subsidies / support schemes taxes 2.b Business- vs. socio-economic costs Business economics Socio economics € € Damages

14 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 14 Keep in mind that the affordability argument only matters for living a „good“ life, not a „luxurious“ one 2.c Relevant energy costs Luxury products and energy intensive leisure activities Food, health, clothing Savings / Provisions Housing / living Work, education, social life, vacation, information, related mobility Energy required..... must be affordable... can be expensive... for basic needs & pleasure... for additional convenience and leisure Use of income... „Good life“ Relevant energy costs Sustainability discussion (not focus of this presentation)

15 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 15 If it is realistic and affordable, what do we have to do? Agenda 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? a)Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ b)Examples c)Energy Outlook a)Cost curves b)Business vs. public economics a)Urgency b)Stakeholder Analysis c)Recommendations Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“

16 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 16 Be aware that we have to get on the right track now – and not waste time and money anymore 3.a Urgency 2015 < 100 months Time left according to IPCC to curb emissions world-wide We need a convincing vision to implement renewables faster avoid investments in old technologies avoid unnecessary emissions get innovative ideas of more people create optimism Renewables Fossil & nuclear Savings, eficiency and intelligent use Use of energy

17 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 17 3.b Stakeholder Analysis Convince decision makers – and the population will increasingly benefit from renewable technologies Target Group Fossil / nuclearNeutralRenewables Deciders / Multipliers: Politicians Managers / Entrepreneurs Private „Budget Holders“ Interests „Normal“ Population: Private citizens Employees / Workforce Administration European Population Stakeholders

18 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 18 Realize that the fossil age is over, the renewable age has begun – even if some may not like it Serious humor “The metal workers destroy our workplaces” “Save the hand axe industry!” “Union Stone and Axe: Maintain the subsidies” “Save us” Greser & Lenz, Kunstmann Verlag

19 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 19 1.Inform yourself & your family about energy and climate change 2.Buy smart (= considering energy) 3.Switch / turn off what you don‘t use 1.Invest smart (= considering energy) 2.Improve & support renewable technologies 3.Have guts to change unsustainable business models or jobs 1.Implement consistent policies quickly 2.Provide infrastructure and support 3.Prohibit inefficient / polluting technologies and activities and „normal“ citizensand employees / workforceand administration staff Act and invest consistently in private, business and public matters – and just start today 3.c Recommendations Private Budget HoldersManagers & EntrepreneursPoliticians

20 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 20 Get inspired by a fascinating vision – for yourself, for our children and for mankind A European Vision „We believe that this continent should commit itself to achieving the goal, before half of the century is out, of using solely renewable energies and living in a sustainable way on Earth." The European Parliament, the European Commission, the Head of States of the European Union, the Party Leaders of the Member States – December 2009

21 Vision Europe 100% renewable in 2050, Kristian Petrick, 2009, page 21 A 100% renewable Europe in 2050 is realistic, affordable and feasible – just spread the word! Conclusion Contact: Kristian Petrick Ecofys Spain Thank you for your attention!


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