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The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Urban Risk Assessments Toward a Common Approach World Urban Forum, March 2010 World Bank Finance, Economics & Urban.

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Presentation on theme: "The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Urban Risk Assessments Toward a Common Approach World Urban Forum, March 2010 World Bank Finance, Economics & Urban."— Presentation transcript:

1 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Urban Risk Assessments Toward a Common Approach World Urban Forum, March 2010 World Bank Finance, Economics & Urban Department

2 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 A Need for Coordination Proliferation of city and hazard specific vulnerability assessments From reactive to upstream planning Increasing priority for development agencies and governments Implications on operations and investments are serious

3 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Moving Forward The challenge: Lack of common approach inhibits effective and strategic cooperation between agencies and across cities The objective: Strengthen coherence and consensus, minimize duplicative efforts, and bring convergence to related work undertaken across relevant organizations

4 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Vulnerability as a Concept Vulnerability: ‘Conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards’. (UN ISDR) Vulnerability: ‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes’. (IPCC)

5 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Measuring Vulnerability Terminology No existing guidelines for aggregation Framework of quantification Data availability Challenges Disaster Risk Index (UNDP) Hot Spot (World Bank) Disaster Deficit Index (IADB/ECLAC) Local Disaster Deficit (IADB/ECLAC) Prevalent Vulnerability Index (IADB/ECLAC) Risk Management Index (IADB/ECLAC) MunichRe/SwissRe Opportunities

6 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Institutional Mapping Importance of national and regional city linkages Identification of planning instruments, policies, programs, and strategies:  City government agencies  Non-governmental and community based organizations

7 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Institutional Mapping

8 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Geospatial Data Cataloguing of datasets held across city government departments and NGOs Four datasets for a city to begin assessing its vulnerability: i.Geophysical ii.Socio-economic iii.Land use iv.Lifelines and services

9 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Geospatial Data Geophysical Relief Hydrologic Network Geology/SoilGeomorphology

10 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Geospatial Data Socio- economic DemographicCensusHousing Quantity, Materials, Condition, Access to Services Welfare & Human Development Information Income, Distribution, Poverty, Education, Human Development Index Production & Investment Metric Areas of Housing, Commercial Infrastructure, Physical Infrastructure; Land Value

11 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Geospatial Data Land Use ResidentialPublicIndustrialCommercialParks

12 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Geospatial Data Lifelines & Basic Services Road Network Order of Importance; Condition; Surface Category; Evacuation Capacity Water Services; System; Type of Material; Type/Quality of Service Energy Services; System; Type of Material; Type of Maintenance/Service; System Location Health Service; Care capacity; Accountability; Human resources; Physical resources Education Student population; Accountability; Building type; Human resources; Physical resources

13 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 High Resolution Imagery BenefitsLimitations Spatial ResolutionVariable Viewing Geometry Spectral DiscriminationVariable Illumination Geometry Positional AccuracyAvailability Global CoverageClouds

14 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Remote Sensing in Urban Areas Satellite Resolution & Detection Capacity Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo. Source: Geoeye.com Spatial ResolutionApplications 0.5 – 1.5 meters Identification, cartography of objects (cars, trees, urban materials) meters Distinction of buildings Identification, cartography of objects (construction) metersLocation/cartography of buildings, roads, agricultural lands 10 – 20 metersLocation and geometry of large infrastructure (airports, city centers, suburbs, commercial malls, industrial areas)

15 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Slum Enumeration Data relating vulnerability does have to be generated only from air or space. Engagement of urban poor in risk mapping and vulnerability assessment Pros: Accuracy and spatial resolution of data Cons: Time, capacity, resources

16 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Slum Enumeration Role of community: – Validation of feature extraction processes undertaken using remote sensing imagery Ground Control Points – Mapping and enumeration of slum areas – Household surveys Historical incidence of small localized disasters Local adaptation measures to quick on-set hazards, slow on-set risks

17 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Slum Enumeration iPhone/smart phone application prototype Reports about individual buildings: – Current position; provided by the phones built-in GPS, – Number of floors, – Building type (residential, office, store, etc.) – Optional parameters; roof shape/material, construction material, picture Links to new open source technology – OpenStreetMap

18 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Historical Incidence of Hazard Areas and extent Damages and losses GeoSpatial Data Basic resolution (5-10m) Urban ecosystems Institutional Mapping City management Response systems Slum Enumeration Existing information Household Surveys Global City Indicators Facility Historical Incidence of Hazard Probabilistic risk modeling for a single event GeoSpatial Data Improved resolution (1.5 – 5m) Wider Coverage Institutional Mapping Assessments Financing Slum Enumeration Mapping Open source technologies Historical Incidence of Hazard Probabilistic risk modeling for multiple hazards GeoSpatial Data High resolution (<0.60m – 1m) Complete data sets Institutional Mapping Adaptive capacity scoring Links to fiscal transfers Slum Enumeration Ground control points COMPLEXITYCOMPLEXITY COSTCOST

19 The World Bank at World Urban Forum 5 Finance, Economics & Urban Department Thank you


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