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Jari Kaivo-oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari´s Office.

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Presentation on theme: "Jari Kaivo-oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari´s Office."— Presentation transcript:

1 Jari Kaivo-oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari´s Office KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD & EUROPEAN ARENA & NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES

2 KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: SOCIAL Global migration increases Increasing longevity (more active 60 year old) The old poor class larger/regional underclass Growing distrust on institutions and leaders Changing roles of sex and generations World becomes urban Continued bubbles and crashes Global educational powerhouses: China & India

3 KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: TECHNICAL Genetics, robotics, informatics and nanotechnology (WRIN waves) The era of big creativity and innovation challenges (Rule of 10 000 hours, bohemian creative class, Quartet Helix, frugal innovation, systemic innovations, etc.) Technological capability increases exponentially: technological singularity near The Cloud becomes ubiquitous: Web 3.0 and Web 4.0 New age of transhumanity: Human beings, robots and cyber humans Reality and universe secondary, multiverse will be the key field of hypercompetition

4 KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: ENVIRONMENT The rules of time, space & materia are changing: time machines, space machines and materia machines create ubiquitous r/evolution Environmental catastrophes occur ”Some like it hot”: the climate change problem and the end of cheap energy era The culture of sustainability begins to emerge

5 KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: ECONOMIC Globalisation: Networks, crowds, markets The emerging BRICSA economies, especially China will dominate many markets Digital markets, digital money, virtual words, avatars Productivity gains: More automation, highly educated workers Mega-companies & micro-entrepreneurs emerge Agile and smart business organisations

6 EUROPE 2030 VISION? PROJECT EUROPE 2030 Challenges and Opportunities A report to the European Council by the Reflection Group on the Future of the EU 2030 Web:

7 EUROPE 2030? Vision element 1: An agent of change in the world, a trend- setter, and not a passive player or witness. Vision element 2: Highly competitive and sustainable social market economy in order to maintain social cohesion and fight against climate change. Vision element 3: EU needs to have a common energy policy (Renewables & nuclear energy solution). Vision element 4: Europeans have met its demographic challenge.

8 EUROPE 2030 Vision element 5: The EU has a strong Single Market against temptations of economic nationalism and complete it to include services, the digital society and other dynamic sectors. Vision element 6: Improved European tax coordination. Vision element 7: Europe will have very modern labour market and very modern corporate governance practices because of the progress of robotisation and automatisation.

9 EUROPE 2030 Vision element 8: The stronger European Council and the stronger Eurogroup with more efficient leadership role, in coordination with the Commission and the European Parliament.

10 KEY EUROPEAN QUESTIONS ON THE EUROPEAN FORESIGHT AGENDA Manage financial crisis and re-direct Europe to new economic growth Solve unemployment problems – especially youth unemployment problem Keep Europe competive, innovative and open minded (Technology, Talents, Tolerance) Keep Europe secure and safe: internal security, external security, social security, energy security etc.) Make political leadership transparent and efficient

11 NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES Diagnosis-Prognosis-Prescription Methodology (DPP Methodology) Adaptive and Agile Foresight processes Strategic and participatory foresight more widely used Foresight supports strong democracy Metaforesight activities Foresight and social media... later European Cloud foresight capacity



14 SOME REFERENCES Gratton, L. (2011). The Shift. The Future of Work Is Already Here. London: Collins. Green, E.N. (2010). Anywhere. How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the Way We Do Business? New York: McGraw- Hill. Greenfield, A. (2006). Everyware: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing. Berkeley, CA, New Riders. Inkinen, S. & Kaivo-oja, J. (2009). Understanding Innovation Dynamics. Aspects of Creative Processes, Foresight Strategies, Innovation Media and Innovation Ecosystems. Finland Futures Research Centre. Turku School of Economics. eBook 9/2009. Turku. Kaivo-oja, J. (2006). Towards Integration of Innovation Systems and Foresight Research in Firms and Corporations. The Classical Takeuchi-Nonaka Model Reconsidered and Reformulated. FFRC-publications 2/2006. Turku, Turku School of Economics. Kaivo-oja, J. (2011). Futures of Innovation Systems and Systemic Innovation Systems: Towards Better Innovation Quality with New Innovation Management Tools. e-Book No 3, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, University of Turku. Kaivo-oja, J. (2012). Weak Signals Analysis, Knowledge Management Theory and Systemic Socio-cultural Transitions. Futures. The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies. Vol. 44, Issue 3, pp. 206–217. López, T.S., Ranasinghe, D.C. Harrison, M. & McFarlane, D. (2012). Adding sense to the Internet of Things: An architecture framework for Smart Object systems. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing. Vol. 16, No 3, 389-395. Misuraca, G., Broster, D., Centeno, C., Punie, Y., Lampathaki, F., Charalabidis, Y., Askounis, D., Osimo,, D. Katarzyna, S. (2010). Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios for ICT in Future Governance and Policy Modelling. Seville: JRC. Teece, D.J. (2006). Reflections on ‘Profiting from innovation`. Research Policy. Vol 35, No. 8, pp. 1131-1146. Ulwick, A. (2005). What Customers Want: Using Outcome-Driven Innovation to Create Breakthrough Products and Services. New York, McGrawHill.

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