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1 LESSLOSS Project SP10 Disaster scenarios and loss modelling in urban areas Emily So University of Cambridge.

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Presentation on theme: "1 LESSLOSS Project SP10 Disaster scenarios and loss modelling in urban areas Emily So University of Cambridge."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 LESSLOSS Project SP10 Disaster scenarios and loss modelling in urban areas Emily So University of Cambridge

2 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop2 1.Introduction 2.University of Cambridge Human Casualty Model i.Introduction to Casualty Estimation ii.Improvements to the existing model iii.Proposed Methodology 3.Earthquake Surveys i.Reconnaissance to Pakistan and Yogyakarta ii.Survey and initial results from analyses 4.Application for LessLoss Cities i.Overview of global dataset (from research to date) ii.Casualty rates for the 3 LessLoss cities Contents LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation

3 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop3 LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation As identified in UCAM’s round of visits to the 3 cities, the modelling of human casulaties in the developed loss estimation models are less than adequate. Over the past 2 years, work has been done to improve casualty estimates based on Coburn and Spence (1992) as a new module to the loss estimation software developed within SP10. Human Casualty Estimation Injured girl from the Kashmir Earthquake of 8 th Oct, 2005

4 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop4 Increased population density leading to development in more hazardous areas. Short-term economic factors has resulted in uncontrolled development of potentially high hazard areas. In Istanbul, the population has increased more than 12 times since 1950s from one to twelve million. More than 7 million people now reside in San Francisco as compared to 340,000 that lived there during the 1906 earthquake. The primary aim of earthquake protection programmes is to SAVE LIVES. LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation

5 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop5 For loss estimation studies to be useful for earthquake protection, they need to include an assessment of probable levels of human casualties in terms of death and injuries: Builds on work done in previous projects (National and EU) Develop new database of casualties from important earthquakes Achieves integration and mutual calibration of methodologies Involves examining urban authorities’ provision of hospitals and transportation network Improves understanding of mitigation and planning opportunities. LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation Benefits of the SP10 Casualty Study

6 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop6 Based on the The Cambridge University Casualty Model (Coburn and Spence 1992, 2004, SECED) which estimates that structural collapses are responsible for 75% of deaths in earthquakes. The factors influencing the number of people killed per building collapse are said to fall into five major categories (M1 to M5) and the number of people killed in the collapses of any particular building type could be estimated, based on observed data. Cambridge University Casualty Model LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Modelling

7 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop7 Occupants at the time of collapse Trapped Not trapped Die instantlyDon’t die instantly Uninjured or lightly injured Moderately injured Die laterDon’t die later Seriously injured Moderately injured Not injured or lightly injured M31-M3 M41-M4 M51-M5 LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Modelling

8 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop8 Within the SP10 funding period, UCAM have examined published information derived from recent earthquake and carried out a progressive assessment of earthquake casualties to improve the previous model, concentrating on the following: seismology engineering building stock cultural environment human responses and behaviour short and long-term economic issues local planning and preparedness LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Modelling

9 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop9 In particular, examining ways of approaching calculated vulnerabilities; Cambridge University Casualty Model: Improvements Cambridge University Casualty Model: Improvements Survey after the Kocaeli Earthquake (Petal, 2004) Severity of Injury and including injuries distribution and public health information into the model. Computer simulation of collapse using DEM, (Kiyono, 2004)

10 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop10 Cambridge University Casualty Model: Update Proposed Table of Standardisation of Injuries According to cost and severity

11 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop11 Cambridge University Casualty Model: Update Proposed Methodology

12 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop12 An opportunity to collect information 1 st hand and understand the characteristics of these earthquakes. Explore the casual pathway of injuries and aftercare. Collate data on severities and types of injuries attributed to different damage states. This data is relevant to European cities even though building types are very different. The Casualty Surveys 2006 In collaboration with the University of Peshawar in Pakistan and Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta over 500 interviews have been done after reconnaissance visits to each location. Taken by Mr Jaz, (another interviewer) at Thandiani LessLoss SP10: Earthquake Surveys

13 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop13 73,318 people dead 69,392 people seriously injured 58,896 people suffer from minor injuries, but some have later died from tetanus and other diseases 2.5m people left homeless 203,579 houses completely destroyed 196,574 houses damaged LessLoss SP10: Earthquake Surveys Kashmir Earthquake, October 2005 Official figures taken from the Government website:

14 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop14 The sample include both affected districts: Pakistan Administered Kashmir (AJK) North West Frontier Province Villages identified: Chella Bandi and Mera Bandi (AJK) Kawai and Ghanool (in the Kaghan Valley) Garlat (near Balakot) LessLoss SP10: Kashmir Earthquake Garlat Chella Bandi Mera Bandi Ghanool This intensity map illustrates the long reach of the earthquake ranging from Intensity X near the epicenter (orange = destruction) (www.asc-india.org)

15 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop15 1.Where were you when the earthquake struck? 4. What did you do when you felt the earthquake? Earthquake Data LessLoss SP10: The Casualty Survey

16 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop16 7. When were you injured? Mark on where the injuries were. Injury Data Also questions on entrapment, mode of rescue, treatment and thoughts on the future. LessLoss SP10: The Casualty Survey

17 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop17 Sample Size Pakistan: 2285 people ; 23% injured, 10% killed (of surviving households) Indonesia: 2661 people, 12% injured, 2% killed Main injury types Pakistan: upper and lower extremity fractures, internal injuries Indonesia: bruises and minor cuts, head wounds Cambridge University Casualty Model: The Casualty Survey Results Results from Surveys- Pakistan and Yogyakarta

18 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop18 Cambridge University Casualty Model: The Casualty Survey Results Old Adobe housing near Manshera, Pakistan Typical housing in Java, Indonesia

19 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop19 Cambridge University Casualty Model: The Casualty Survey Results

20 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop20 There are published casualty rates related to building types given in HAZUS (indoor and outdoor) based on ATC-13 and a limited historical dataset for 4 injury severity levels, namely: Injuries requiring basic medical aid (severity 1) Hospitalized (severity 2) Life threatening Injuries (severity 3) Deaths (severity 4) These rates have been widely used outside California: adaptation in Australia (Fulford et al, 2005) suggests that HAZUS casualty rates overestimates both fatalities and injury severity 3. Published Casualty Rates LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation

21 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop21 A review of the different types of injuries caused by earthquakes shows that there is considerable variation of types and severity of injuries which appears to correlate with the predominantly affected type of buildings. In the Armenia earthquake in 1988, 80% of the structures of one building-type were destroyed; in this case, it was the nine-story precast concrete frames known as Series 111 which was the main cause of 25,000 deaths. For the same earthquake, a case control study carried out by Armenian et al (1992) identified that there is a higher risk of injuries for those who were in taller buildings and who were located on the higher floors of these buildings as well as for those who were indoors during the earthquake LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation Global earthquake casualty data

22 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop22 Kocaeli 1999 Seligson et al (2006) analysed in particular the non-ductile concrete buildings in detail from the Golcuk dataset collected by Petal (2004) and found that published models like the ATC and HAZUS, whilst corresponding fairly well with surveyed fatalities, tended to underestimate the percentage of the population suffering non-fatal injuries in buildings of minor and moderate damage. Kobe 1995 This figure illustrates the distribution of injuries in lesser damage states and the importance of capturing this data as injuries are associated with partially and moderately collapsed buildings (Murakami et al, 2004). LessLoss SP10: Published Casualty Rates

23 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop23 The set of injury state parameters for the three cities are derived from a review of collated data from recent earthquakes such as Kobe, Kocaeli and Chi Chi. The casualty rates from loss estimation models such as HAZUS and ATC13 from the United States are used as reference. Uses country specific data from previous earthquakes and takes into account of differences in survivability assisted by the presence of national search and rescue programs. Proposed Casualty Rates for SP10 LessLoss SP10: Proposed Casualty Rates

24 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop24 Includes progressive assessment of casualties stemming from other causal factors. Studies such as the Gölcük survey highlighting non- structural factors and injuries caused by lower damage states are also incorporated. LessLoss SP10: Proposed Casualty Rates

25 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop25 Sample Output LessLoss SP10: Proposed Casualty Rates Main building types in LessLoss city Distribution of injuries and uninjured as a percentage of total occupants in the buildings

26 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop26 LessLoss SP10: Human Casualty Estimation In the final phase of this project, global factors will be adapted for each of the cities, taking into account the building stock and likely collapse mechanisms of the local building types and also the likely search and rescue efficiency. These can form a part of future modification of the 3 loss modelling methodologies.

27 LNEC, 25 th May 2007 Lisbon Dissemination Workshop27 Thank you ekms2@cam.ac.uk Acknowledgements: LessLoss CAR Ltd EPSRC


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