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Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain Michaela Kreyenfeld and Cordula Zabel.

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Presentation on theme: "Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain Michaela Kreyenfeld and Cordula Zabel."— Presentation transcript:

1 Female education, female income and the next child in West Germany and Great Britain Michaela Kreyenfeld and Cordula Zabel

2 ”The growth in the earning power of women …is the major cause of ….the large decline in fertility. " Gary S. Becker 1993 A Treatise on the Family, Cambridge ”One of the most consistent findings …is a negative relationship between women’s education and fertility." Charles Hirschman 1994 Annual Review of Sociology Education and Fertility

3 Empirical Research on Macro Level Evidence that negative macro level correlation between female employment and fertility has weakened (Ahn and Mira 2002). Empirical Evidence on Micro Level Consistent evidence that highly educated women have higher second and third birth risks: Germany: Huinink (1995) Sweden: Berinde (1999) or Hoem (1996) Norway: Kravdal (1992), (2001) Austria: Hoem et al. (2001) Hungary: Olah (2003) France:Köppen (2004) UK:Smallwood (2004) Denmark: Harhoff et al. (2007)

4 1.Theoretical Considerations Is the high fertility of highly educated women a statistical artefact? 2.Britain and West Germany 2.1 Two contrasting welfare states 2.2 General fertility development 3.Empirical Results 3.1 Data, variables, method 3.2 Event history models on higher order birth risks Structure

5 Is the high fertility of highly educated women a statistical artefact?

6 Theoretical Considerations Empirical Evidence There is consistent evidence that highly educated women have higher second and third birth risks: Huinink (1995), Berinde (1999), Hoem (1996), Kravdal (1992, 2001), Hoem et al. (2001), Olah 2003, Smallwood (2004), Köppen (2004), Harhoff et al. (2007) All these studies have in common that they relied on an event history framework.

7 Theoretical Considerations # 1: Time-Squeeze Hypothesis Highly educated women have higher birth risks, because they space their children close together. Reasons for the close spacing are: - an age-related „time-squeeze“ - „work-accelerated childbearing“ (Ni Brochain)  The birth rates are higher for highly educated women. However, the final progression to the next child is the same as for other women.

8 Theoretical Considerations # 2: Work-Characteristics Hypothesis Highly educated often work in jobs that offer better possibilities to combine work and family life. They are often employed in the public sector, which is more conducive to the compatibility of work and family life than the private sector.  The birth rates are higher for highly educated women, because of an omission of work- characteristics in the models.

9 Theoretical Considerations # 3: Partner Hypothesis Assortative mating is common in many countries. Highly educated women more often have highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a larger family.  The birth rates are higher for highly educated women, because of an omission of partner characteristics.

10 Theoretical Considerations # 4: Selection Hypothesis Women at risk of second birth have already given birth to a first child. Highly educated women who choose to have one child are a selective group of people who are - particularly family orientated - particularly good at arranging day care  Highly educated women are a select group of people with special (unobserved) characteristics. These (unobserved) characteristics explain their high second and third birth rates.

11 Theoretical Considerations Hypotheses 1.Time-squeeze: Highly educated women need to accelerate the transition to the second/third child. 2.Work Characteristics: Highly educated women more often have secure jobs in the public sector. 3.Partner Effect: Highly educated women more often have highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a larger family. 4.Selectivity: Highly educated women at risk of second or third birth are a select group of people. ….or a “true” income effect?

12 Great Britain and West Germany Welfare States and Fertility Development

13 Liberal-Market Regime Conservative- Familialistic Regime Incompatibility Child care market

14 Total Period Fertility RateTotal Cohort Fertility Rate Source: Council of Europe 2005, Statistisches Bundesamt 2007 1.6 1.4 West Germany Great Britain West Germany Great Britain 1.9 1.5 Fertility Development

15 Family Size Distribution by Birth Cohort Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations West Germany Great Britain 10% 14% 12% 14% 46% 42% 24%20% 8% 10% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1940-491950-59 4+ children 3 children 2 children 1 child Childless Fertility Development

16 Transition to First Birth by Age of Woman (Life Table Estimates) West Germany Great Britain 0% 50% 100% 15202530354045 Cohort 1960-69 Cohort 1950-59 Cohort 1940-49 25 3025 27 Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations Fertility Development

17 Transition to Second and Third Birth (Cohorts 1950-1969) 2nd Birth 3rd Birth West Germany Great Britain West Germany Great Britain Source: SOEP 2005, BHPS 2004, own calculations Age of first child Fertility Development

18 Empirical Results

19 Data German Socio-Economic Panel (1984-2005) British Household Panel Survey (1991-2004) Method Piecewise-constant event history model Dependent Variable Second pregnancy (duration in months since last birth) Third pregnancy (duration in months since last birth) Data, Method and Variables

20 Independent Variables Age of previous childAge 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 etc. Age at first birth Age 16-20, 20-25 etc. Calendar period 1984-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000 etc. Marital StatusMarried, cohabiting, single, divorced/widowed Ethnicity/NationalityForeigner/German (SOEP), Foreign born/native (BHPS) Sex of previous children Girl(s), boy(s), mixed Employment status Full-time, Part-time employed, not employed Data, Method and Variables

21 Independent Variables EducationNo degree (no vocational or university degree) Vocational degree University degree Partner EducationNo degree (no vocational or university degree) Vocational degree University degree SectorPublic sector Private sector Income Gross labor market income, deflated and categorized Data, Method and Variables

22 Sample Size BHPS SOEP Second Births Respondents 903 2,763 Events (second births)4551,195 Third Births Respondents 1,131 3,609 Events (third births)205488 Data, Method and Variables

23 Age of Previous Child (Absolute Risks in 1,000) 2 nd birth risks 3 rd birth risks West Germany Great Britain West Germany Great Britain Results

24 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children. Age at First Birth (Relative Risks) 2 nd birth risks 3 rd birth risks West Germany Great Britain West Germany Great Britain Results

25 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age at first birth, education, age of previous child Sex Composition of Previous Children (Relative Risks) 2 nd birth risks 3 rd birth risks West Germany Great Britain West Germany Results

26 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age at first birth, education, age of previous child Marital Status (Relative Risks) 2 nd birth risks 3 rd birth risks West Germany Great Britain West Germany Great Britain Results

27 Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children. Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.981.29** Vocational11 University1.42***1.58*** 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.880.85 Vocational11 University1.52***1.48 Time Squeeze? Results

28 Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, sex of previous children. Second Birth Risks: Is there a Time-Squeeze? West Germany Great Britain No degree University Vocational No degree University Vocational Results

29 Third Birth Risks: Is there a Time-Squeeze? West Germany Great Britain University Vocational No degree Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, sex of previous children. University Vocational No degree Results

30 Further control variables: Calendar period, age at first birth, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children. Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.981.29** Vocational11 University1.42***1.58*** 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.880.85 Vocational11 University1.52***1.48 Work Conditions? Results

31 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children. Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.870.76* Vocational11 University1.49***1.79** Employment Status Full-time 0.72**0.42*** Part-time0.910.55*** Not employed11 Sector Public1.29*0.73 Private11 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.951.26* Vocational11 University1.47***1.70*** Employment Status Full-time 0.68*0.45* Part-time1.150.70 Not employed11 Sector Public1.140.97 Private11 Results

32 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children. Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.981.29** Vocational11 University1.42***1.58*** 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.880.85 Vocational11 University1.52***1.48 Partner Effect? Results

33 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children. Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.801. 28* Vocational11 University1.30*1.21 Male Education No degree0.981.21 Vocational11 University1.36***1.98*** 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.870.83 Vocational11 University1.42**1.67** Male Education No degree1.041.10 Vocational11 University1.160.68 Results

34 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, age at first birth, marital status, education, age of previous child, sex of previous children. Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany Great Britain 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.981.29** Vocational11 University1.42***1.58*** 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.880.85 Vocational11 University1.52***1.48 Selectivity? Results

35 Female Education (Relative Risks) West Germany 2nd birth3rd birth Female Education No degree0.971.26** Vocational11 University1.38**1.53*** Place lived at age 15 Small town11 Medium town0.82**0.84 Big city0.880.69** Father religious? Protestant11 Catholic 0.891.33 Not religious0.620.97 Other1.011.62 Results

36 Further control variables: Calendar period, ethnicity, marital status, age of previous child, sex of previous children. Female Income and the Next Child West Germany Great Britain 2 nd birth risks 3 rd birth risks Great Britain Results

37 West Germany Strong effect of partner‘s education on higher order birth risks. Great Britain Elevated second and third birth risks for university educated women can partially be explained by “time squeeze” Work conditions matter (public/private sector) Very high female income matters for higher order birth risks. Conclusion

38 Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung www.demogr.mpg.de


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