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Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight.

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Presentation on theme: "Systems & Foresight Some basics. Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight."— Presentation transcript:

1 Systems & Foresight Some basics

2 Basic words System –“an assemblage of interrelated elements comprising a unified whole with emergent properties” Foresight –The art of anticipation, of looking forward Hindsight –Perception after the event

3 Essential beginnings for all foresight

4 The more and deeper you think …. What are you trying to anticipate? –System, its boundaries and their uncertainties Why are you doing so? –To be defensive or creative? When may your anticipations be effective? –The time horizon? Where will they be important? –Locally or globally or glocally? Who is important? –Policy makers or ‘street level’ How will you go about your anticipations? –The role of formal methods …. the more there seems to be no real ‘answer’ to a situation

5 Scanning is Cinderella

6 Events of very low probability But of very high information content (Black Swans) Events of high probability But of low information content (Grey pigeons)

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8 Foresight & time ‘Real’ foresight Institutional foresight

9 Situations Why the world isn’t always what it seems

10 Six themes Social Technical (includes both S & T) Economic Ecology Political (& politics) Values/norms

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