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QPF Results of sensitivity studies for Polish cases. Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska,Witold Interewicz 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21 September.

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Presentation on theme: "QPF Results of sensitivity studies for Polish cases. Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska,Witold Interewicz 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21 September."— Presentation transcript:

1 QPF Results of sensitivity studies for Polish cases. Katarzyna Starosta, Joanna Linkowska,Witold Interewicz 9th COSMO General Meeting, September 2007, Athens (Greece) Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, Warsaw,Poland

2 Our activity in QPF for Poland Selection and description of experimental days: 3 May, 4 May, 10 June, 9 August 2005 QPF sensitivity experiment (model 3.19 run for 21 experiments, model 4.0 run for 6 experiments, 4 days). Post-processing and statistics. Results and conclusions.

3 Experimental Model Domain Domain size (in nodes - longitude, latitude): ( 1:200, 1:200 ), subdomain for Poland: ( 31:151, 51:151 ). Domain size (in rotated coordinates - longitude, latitude): ( 0.0 : , -4.1 : ), sudomain for Poland: ( : 9.375, : ). Domain size (in rotated coordinates - lower left, upper right corner): ( (0.0,-4.1), ( ,8.3375) ), subdomain for Poland: ( (1.875,-0.975), (9.375,5.275) ) Horizontal step (degrees): (~7km), 40 levels. Rotated North Pole coordinates (longitude, latitude): , 40.0.

4 Selection of cases. The precipitation over Poland is overpredicted. The overestimation is much bigger for heavy precipitation especially in summer.The major criteria used to choosing the events were the overestimation of maximum values or false prediction of precipitation occurrence. The four precipitation events were selected, dominated by grid scale precipitation.

5 3 May 2005 Model 4.0 CTRLObservation Synoptic situation

6 4 May 2005 ObservationModel 4.0 CTRL Synoptic situation

7 10 June 2005 ObservationModel 4.0 CTRL Synoptic situation

8 9 August 2005 Observation Model 4.0 CTRL Synoptic situation

9 Average precipitation experiments 0-20

10 Maximum precipitation experiments 0-20

11 3 May May 2005 Max FOR Max CON Max GSP Aver FOR Aver CON Aver GSP CON % GSP % Max FOR Max CON Max GSP Aver FOR Aver CON Aver GSP CON % GSP % Exp.A1 CTRL Exp.A2 4.0+QV090+RK Exp.A3 4.0+CONkfb Exp.A4 4.0+QV090+RK+CONkf b Exp.A5 4.0+CONmod Exp.A6 4.0+QV090+RK+CONm od Total, gride scale and convective, maximum and average precipitation, experiments A1-A6

12 10 June August 2005 Max FOR Max CON Max GSP Aver FOR Aver CON Aver GSP CO N % GS P % Max FO R Max CON Max GS P Aver FOR Aver CON Aver GSP CON % GSP % Exp.A1 CTRL Exp.A2 4.0+QV090+RK Exp.A3 4.0+CONkfb Exp.A4 4.0+QV090+RK+CONkfb Exp.A5 4.0+CONmod Exp.A6 4.0+QV090+RK+CONmod Total, gride scale and convective, maximum and average precipitation, experiments A1-A6

13 Version DateAverageMaximumAverageMaximum 3 MayRktp Rksl3 Rkbott Rktp Rkbott Mikro1 CTRL CONmod QV090+RK 4 MayCTRL QV110 RLAM01 LFsl3 Micro1 Oro Micro2 CTRL CONmod QV090+RK 10 JuneWSO080 DT20 QV080+RK+CONkfbQV090+RK+CONmod 9 AugustRksl3Micro1 Oro Micro2 CONkfbQV090+RK+CONmod CTRL 3.19 CTRL 4.0 AverageMaximumAverageMaximum 3 Mayunderpredictedoverpredictedgoodoverpredicted 4 Maygoodoverpredictedgoodoverpredicted 10 Juneoverpredicted 9 Augustoverpredicted Results of experiments. The best results:


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