Presentation on theme: "Comportamento Eleitoral Aula 11 Ciencia Politica CGAE Kurt von Mettenheim."— Presentation transcript:
Comportamento Eleitoral Aula 11 Ciencia Politica CGAE Kurt von Mettenheim
Topics 1)Behavioral Revolution in political science 2)Frequencies & Typology of Mass Belief Systems 3)Correlations & Issue Voting 4)Regressions & Causal Modeling 5)The Brazilian Voter + 15(!) years 6)Brazilian Democracy: Critical Elections, Party Realignments, Supercoalitions
1) Revolução Behavioralista Versus Freudian Psychology * comportamento observado * questionário Versus Sociologia Demográfico e dados agregados desde Durkheim: Census Comparison Para Linz = Falha Ecológica precisa focalizar o indivíduo
History of Public Opinion Studies 1930s-40s Laswell & Chicago School (problem = fascism/communism & propoganda) 1950s Stauffer Communism & Civil Rights (problem = Senador McCarthy & CPI anti- communist) MARCO de Método e Teoria: P. Converse: Mass Belief Systems
2) Mass Belief Systems P. Converse, 1964 Tipologia de Conceitualizações da Política Tipo% 1958% Ideologue58 Near-Ideologue812 Group Interest2023 Nature of Times4040 No Content2727
3) Issue Voting Range & Constraint of Mass Belief System Range: Number of Beliefs YNNA Privatizar? Mais Policia? Reforma Politica? Aumentar Imposto? BACEN Autonomo?
Constraint If YES Privatize, then NO Tax Increase = CORRELATION If YES BACEN Autonomo, then YES Privatize…
Parsimony vs Causal Weight aParty IDb f ECONg Candidate h Vote e cIdeologyd
Aumentar Explicação... 1) Vote = e + econ 2) Vote = e + (g x h) + (a x b) + (c x d) + (c x e x h) + (a x f x h) 1) R2 = 2.0 2) R2 = 9.0
Causal Models Long-TermShort-Term Demography PoliticalPolitical Income Econ Age Party ID Region PoliciesVote Race Pol. Soc. Gender Candidate Education
5) The Brazilian Voter Eleições de 1974, 1978, 1982, 1986 Identificou a organização RÁPIDA da Opinião Pública Brasileira vs 1970 Brazil (Eleição em Regime Militar!) vs 1950s EUA (despolitizado: 1960s muda)
Tipologia de Conceitualizações da Politica TipoEUABRAZIL Ideologue82 Near-Ideologue123 Group Interest234 Nature of Times4045 No Content2745
TipoBRAZIL Personalist 23 Immediate 32 Problem: Master Coding of Open Question Content? Via: Corr? Issue? Ed?
The Brazilian Voter cont. Chapter 6 = Party Identification in 1982 Rsq = 0.85 – 0.95 !!!! 3 Teorias sobre como se forma IDENTIFICAÇÃO PARTIDÁRIA 1) Political Socialization PID 2) Civil Society PID 3) Elections PID (Weber/Keys/Burnham: Plebiscitary Vote & Political Machines)
The Brazilian Voter cont. Chapter 7 = Issue Voting (lembra 2o marco metodológico… correlações) Rsq = 0.24 SE = Local NE / Rural = Local > & National <
The Brazilian Voter cont. Chapter 8 : Accountability * Old, Contested Concept in Political Theory (para cima, horizontal, ? ) * New Concept: Causal Logic of Public Opinion PIB/Employment Vote pro-contra GOV Q: Individual (US) vs Society (FR/Brazil) Q: Executive? Leg? Fed/State/Mun?
The Brazilian Voter cont. Chapter 9 Participation W. Gallie: Essentially Contested Concepts Outro marco metodológico: Análise Fatorial (1=mídia, 2=sociedade civil, 3= processo eleitoral em si) Como se cria, qual é o impacto de PARTICIPAÇÃO? Corporativismo: hierarquias Sociedade Civil: mobilização de baixo Política Partidária-Eleitoral: Nível de Análise>
The Brazilian Voter cont. Value of Democracy * Psychology: Cognitive Dissonance Vote Believe (Rustow, Luxemburg) * Tolerance: Petition/Strike/Occupy Building * Q Method: Factor Analysis: Actions/Beliefs
6) New Concepts for Brazilian Democracy 1) 1994 = Critical Election (Eleição Crítica) US = 1824, 1860, 1896, 1932, ) Toucan & PT Supercoalitions (Presidencialismo de Coalizão) 3) Multi-Party Realignment (Realinhamento Partidário) National Local Change Separation of powers Presidential & federal institutions
Classics: Max Weber & V.O. Key US Political Development "That the plebiscitary 'machine' has developed so early in America is due to the fact that there, and there alone, the executive -- this is what mattered -- the chief office of patronage, was a president elected by plebiscite." (Weber, 1946, p. 108). Critical Elections and Realignment in which voters are … unusually deeply concerned, in which the extent of electoral involvement is relatively quite high, and in which the decisive results of the voting reveal a sharp alteration of the pre- existing cleavage within the electorate. Moreover, and perhaps this is the truly differentiating characteristic of this election, the realignment made manifest in such elections seems to persist for several succeeding elections. (Key, 1955, p. 4)
Example: 1932 Key focuses on the persistence of votes shifting to democrats in New England in 1924 and 1928 thereafter, Followers focus on 1932 as the critical election: one with (just under) a 20 percent drop for republicans and (just under) a 20 percent increase for democrats:
Critical Elections in US History 1) Jacksonian democrats (1828 election), 2) Republican ascendancy after civil war and the end of slavery (1860 election) 3) The rise of corporate capitalism and republican defeat of populism (1896 election), 4) The depression and New Deal (1932 election), 5) Decline of the democratic south as either a secular realignment or a critical election in 1964 or 1994.
1994 = Critical Election Presidential Vote by Party,
Supercoalitions Social Security Reform (6 August 2003)
Supercoalition Votes: Tax Reform 9 Sept 2003
Total Vote by Party Mayoral Elections, PT 7,893,509 11,938,734 16,314, PSDB13,065,103 13,518,346 15,726, PMDB 12,716,976 13,257,675 14,231, PFL 10,072,522 12,973,437 11,253, PDT 6,956,642 5,611,888 5,576, PP 9,776,752 6,812,742 6,092, PTB 4,354,264 5,804,047 5,257, PL 1,971,267 2,541,572 5,040, PPS 496,150 3,509,922 4,984, PSB 2,816,484 3,861,987 4,465, PCdoB 191, , , Other 3,801,025 4,307,056 5,317, Total 74,111,896 84,520,333 95,111, Source: Superior Electoral Court, available at
Number of Mayors By Party,
From 2004 to 2006 PT Supercoalition, Lula 2 nd Term PSDB Opposition SP Gov Alckimin, MG Gov Neves? PMDB: Machine Bases PFL: Regional & Machine Bases Minor Parties: PL, PDT, PP, PTB, PPS, PSB
7) Political Scenarios for 2006 Elections and Coalition Government in Brazil Material prepared for consultancy Kurt von Mettenheim GLG & FGV-EAESP 21 June 2006
Political Scenarios Scenarios turn on October 2006 Elections: Most likely scenario = President Lula reelected and PT Coalition Government formed Next most likely scenario = PSDB candidate Alkimin elected and PSDB-PFL coalition government formed.
Voter Preference, by Gender, Education, Income
Voter Preference, 2nd Round (if no candidate> 50% valid votes, held four weeks after 1st Round)