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CLIMATE CHANGE OR EXTREME WEATHER IMPACT ON HUMAN SETTLEMENT AND LAND USE by Mohamed Jamil Bin Ahmad Suraya Dato Badaruddin Research and Development Division

Regional and global changes in temperature Precipitation and other climate variables resulting in global changes in soil moisture An increase in global mean sea level and prospects for more severe extreme high –temperature events, floods and droughts in some place.

Mean annual global surface temperature will increase by C by 2100 Global mean sea level will rise by cm Changes in the spatial and temporal patterns . Average rate of warming probably would be greater than any in the past 10,000 years

Hydrology and Water Resources Food and Fiber Production Coastal Systems Human Health

Negative impact on the viability of freshwater , wetlands increases in sea-surface temperature Coral reefs suffer bleaching Additional stress on water resources. Vulnerability of agricultural areas to episodic environmental hazards, including floods, droughts and cyclones.

The report concluded that potential direct effects of climate change include changes in:- water availability, crop yields inundation of coastal areas indirect effects on food security and human health.

Climate change has contributed to natural disasters such as epidemic, flood., wave/surge, wild fires and wind storm. 49 cases of natural disaster events were reported from December 1965 to January 2007. Total number of 1062 people were killed in the event while total people affected was 1, people . Total damage loss was estimated US155,000.

8 Type Of Natural Disaster
No. of Events Killed Total Affected Damage US $(000s) Epidemic 10 406 10,363 Flood 30 282 1,161,650 140,400 Wave/surge 1 80 5,063 14,600 Wild Fires 2 3,000 Wind Storm 6 294 55,831

Impacts on the environment among others include loss of important species and cleaning up of the environment Impacts on social occurs when disasters affect the social well being of the people through loss of human lives, property and source of income Impact on the economy include cost of rehabilitation, cost for displacement of people to new shelter homes, reconstruction cost for new bridges, roads, houses other and utilities

10 Estimated Damage and Losses from tsunami impact in Kota Kuala Muda and Penang Island in 2004
Damage items Kota Kuala Muda Pulau Pinang Qty Value (RM) Fishermen (affected) ≈1000 - 2733 Houses * Destroyed/loss Damage 113 398 30,000-40,000 10,000-15,000 653 20,000 10,000 Transport Car/van/lorry Motorcycle Bicycle 198 507 315 4.14m 1.52m Paddy field 52.3 ha 160,000 Fishing Vessel** Big Small 34 404 2.72 m 10.1m 102 1059 8.16m 26.5m Jetty 1 40,000 41 1.56m Fishing equipments 4.33 Aquaculture Marine cage Brackishwater pond Freshwater pond Raft platforms (Cockles/oyster) 11 2 Na 67 4 7 13.8m *value for house losses is in RM/house (survey) *include South Pulau Pinang, Seberang Perai and Teluk Bahang ** Losses for small and big boat was expected top reach about RM25,000 and RM8000 per unit respectively (based on survey).

11 Population growth and climate change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change viewed that population demands increase pressures to :- a) Change of land from its natural state will increase pressures on less intensively managed habitats, biodiversity and ecosystems and increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide as forests are converted to other land uses Intensive land uses could increase soil erosion and farther degrade water quality and farther degrade water quality, Convert agricultural and other lands

12 Potential Impacts Of Climate Change Impacts In Malaysia
Predictions on climate change impacts in Malaysia by international organization outlines the following: Sea levels will rise to cm in a hundred years. Crop yields will drop with marginalisation of drought-prone areas and flooding out of >100,000 ha Greater diseases among forest species and biodiversity loss. Overall water availability will decrease and intensity of floods will increase.

13 Potential Impacts Of Climate Change Impacts In Malaysia
Predictions on climate change impacts in Malaysia by international organization outlines the following: Coastal areas will suffer tidal inundation, shoreline erosion, increased wave action and saline intrusion. Adverse health impacts more heat stress, respiratory diseases, food and water borne diseases as well as those vector-borne. Operational and maintenance costs of electricity generation will increase especially in coastal areas. Oil and gas platforms will be also liable 13

Prediction on water availability issues marked some pertinent points which need to be addressed by policy makers and planners water availability assessment projected National Water Resources Study (NWRS, 2000) Water Demand By Sector WATER SUPPLY DEMAND (Mld) DEMAND 1998 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Domestic Mld 5,022 5,558 8,184 10,582 12,622 14,388 16,176 Industrial 3,453 3,985 7,101 9,756 11,863 13,743 15,452 Domestic and industrial 8,475 9,543 15,285 20,338 24,485 28,131 31,628 Irrigation 20,139 17,875 17,857 16,802 Total Demand 28.614 29,682 33,142 39,195 41,287 44,933 48,430 Mld : megalitres per day Source : National Water Resources Study, 2000

1995 1997 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 PERLIS 78 85 90 123 153 187 226 265 KEDAH 705 747 791 1084 1397 1746 2129 2517 PENANG 604 641 750 1004 1260 1483 1696 1884 PERAK 977 1038 1142 1567 1880 2292 2700 3068 SELANGOR 1925 2421 3039 5490 7528 8307 8614 8791 NEGRI SEMBILAN 358 384 493 665 826 1003 1169 1341 MALACCA 230 272 336 572 777 946 1097 1219 JOHOR 1107 1224 1398 2079 2780 3429 4062 4687 PAHANG 429 615 735 1188 1640 2261 2918 3584 TERENGGANU 290 327 541 1082 1353 1677 1983 2269 KELANTAN 171 182 228 431 744 1154 1537 2003 PENINSULAR MALAYSIA 6,874 7,935 9,543 15,285 20,338 24,485 28,141 31,628 ANNUAL % INCREASE 7.7 6.8 6.0 3.3 2.0 1.5 1.2 Mld : mega litres per day Source : National Water Resources Study, 2000

16 Population and water availability per kapita (m3 per year)
Projected Water Availability for the Country Negeri Population and water availability per kapita (m3 per year) Tahun 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Perlis Population 273,496 317,598 358,897 395,356 424,235 Water Availability Per kapita 1,499 1,291 1,142 1,037 966 Kedah 1,915,954 2,256,721 2,585,680 2,890906 3,153,265 3,993 3,390 2,959 2,646 2,426 Pulau Pinang 1,296,997 1,527899 1,635,677 1,722,161 1,782,765 1,339 1,224 1,143 1,086 1,049 Perak 2,408,821 2,712,847 3,002,322 3,251,076 3,442,320 8,465 7,516 6,791 6,272 5,923 Selangor (termasuk W.P) 6,082,576 7,346853 8,413,569 9,275,975 9,903,683 2,241 1,855 1,620 1,469 1,376 Negeri Sembilan 1,023,455 1,178,000 1,322,192 1,446,033 1,540,814 938 815 726 664 623 Melaka 696,508 796,034 885,050 957,818 1,009,024 1,263 1,105 994 919 872 Johor 3,495,129 4,237,774 4,968,374 5,685,711 6,335,996 5,985 4,939 4,211 3,679 3,302 Pahang 1,731,648 2,14,9809 2,601,248 3,076,598 3,553,199 22,649 18,243 15,077 12,748 11,038 Terengganu 1,340,934 1,664,915 2,021,152 2,390,080 2,753,044 17,987 14,487 11,934 10,092 8,761 Kelantan 1, 2,466,318 3,000,583 3,551,854 4,092,242 11,251 9,034 7,425 6,273 5,444 Peninsular Malaysia 22,345,711 26,652765 30,794834 3,464,0568 37,990,582 6,817 5,715 4,947 4,397 4,010 Source : National Water Resources Study, 2000

17 Hyogo Framework For Action 2005
Land-use planning and other technical measures Incorporate disaster risk assessments into the urban planning and management Incorporate disaster risk assessments into the urban planning and management Mainstreaming disaster risk considerations into planning procedures for major infrastructure projects Develop, upgrade and encourage the use of guidelines and monitoring tools Incorporate disaster risk assessment into rural development Encourage the revision of existing or the development of new building codes, standards, rehabilitation and reconstruction practices at the national or local levels

18 Adaptation Measures on Climate Change Impact Through Land Use Planning by IPCC
governments need to consider more intensive efforts to achieve economically efficient and sustainable land use optimize socioeconomic welfare and growth subject to environmental constraints and operate in concert with any strategies that may be employ to limit the growth of greenhouse gases emphasis should be given to responses that remove barriers to rapid and efficient adaptation, identify decisions with long term consequences, maintain flexibility in resource use and management where possible limit costs and administrative burden promote public input and acceptance.

19 Malaysia’s Respone Integrated Planning and Resource Management System has been incorporated into planning system in Malaysia Town and Country Planning (Act 1976) Three basic elements of the Act include planning administrative system, development plan system and development control system. The interpretation of Kyoto Protocol through initiatives in reduction of climate change impacts through adapt ation measure mentioned in development policies and implementation of existing planning documents (NPP, NUP and development plans). Under the Act, environmental aspects are promoted through several provisions related to siting and zoning of human settlements.

20 Malaysia’s Respone Integrated Planning and Resource Management System has been incorporated into planning system in Malaysia National Urbanisation Policy The National Urbanisation Policy is centred on main thrusts as mentioned below: An efficient and sustainable urban development An integrated and efficient urban transportation system NUP promotes green building concept towards energy saving and efficiency and promotes the Hyogo declaration initiatives through NUP 23. 20

21 National Physical Plan (Npp)
It applies the Integrated Resource Planning and Management System and Management System (IRPMS) where physical planning and natural resources utilization will be integrated within a management process towards achieving sustainable development Salient points made under National Physical Plan towards achieving sustainable human development include the following: To optimise utilisation To promote To secure spatial

22 NPP 4 - Land and natural resources of less development regions shall be used in a sustainable manner to increase the productivity of these regions and reduce imbalances NPP21 - Land development in the highlands shall be strictly controlled to safeguard human safety and environmental quality NPP 18 -Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESA) shall be integrated in the planning

23 Reduction of carbon emission through NPP policies
NPP 23 : In recognition of the inter relationship between land use and transport and integrated national transportation network shall be established NPP 27 : Transit Orientated Development (TOD) concept shall be promoted as the basis of urban land use planning and ensure viability of public transport NPP 28 : In major urban centres, an integrated public transportation system shall be established

24 State Structure Plan (Section 8 (1). Act 172 also specifies that Structure Plan shall be a written statement formulating the state planning authority’s policies and general proposals in respect of the development Measures for the improvement of the physical environment and the management of traffic.

25 Local Plan Required under Section 12 (1) of Act 172, the District Local Plan consist of a map and a written statement which formulate in detail the development and use of land of the whole district area Protection and improvement of the physical environment, preservation of the natural topography, improvement of the landscape and preservation and planting of trees.

26 Sustainability Assessment for Local Plan Preparation
Initiative to implement Sustainability assessment (SA) in plan making process (local plans). Taking into consideration of physical, economy, environment, and social aspects in plan making process.

27 Planning Permission and Development Plan Report
Section 19 (1) of Act 172 is relevant towards achieving sustainability objectives at local level. Allocation of land space, provision and distribution of infrastructure and community facilities as well as their contributions towards environmental improvement and protection Act 172 allows the Local Planning Authority to impose certain planning conditions to further regulate the nature, type and location development. Under section 21A, development proposal report is required to obtain planning permission Section 22 (Act A1129) ensure policies outlined at national level are translated accordingly at local level. Under Sector 22 (2A) stated that any development which falls under the following activities will need to be brought to the National Physical Planning Council (NPPC)

28 The prescribed activities include: -
1. The development of a new township for a population exceeding ten thousand, or covering an area of more that one hundred hectares, or both; 2. A development for the construction of any major infrastructure or utility, or; 3. A development affecting hill tops or hill slopes in an area designated as environmentally sensitive in a development plan 4. Development for the construction of major infrastructure or utility which include National infrastructure National utility

29 Planning Guidelines The FDTCP has currently produced more than 40 planning guidelines to assist local authorities in development approval process Planning guidelines for green building has been incorporated in housing planning guideline towards reduction of energy use and promote building with energy saving (optimum housing GP)

30 MURNI-net Programme Promoting Good Urban Governance
Provides sustainable indicators to monitor the achievement of cities towards sustainable development objectives. Developed 56 indicators (urbanization rate, public health, environmental condition).

31 Land Use Planning Appraisal In Risk Areas
To achieve safety and sustainability in land use planning with effective disaster mitigation strategies. To provide general guidelines for development control in hazard prone areas and to provide mitigation measures for the areas.

32 Land Use Planning Appraisal In Risk Areas
Create awareness among planners and decision makers Incorporate Hyogo Framework Of Actions measures in landuse planning Integrated approach for DRR in landuse planning

33 Issues And Challenges NPP has been formulated reduce the gap
The success of NPP, NUP and the existing planning mechanism depend on the state agencies and local authorities. Local authorities must ensure that local plans conforms with development policies

34 Further Improvement On Existing Mechanism
Review existing documents Give priority on prevention of disaster Expedite the preparation of risk and hazard maps Incorporate Hyogo Framework into programme and documents Review existing legislation to incorporate climate change issues Review existing building codes (eg. set back requirements) Review planning Enhance the provision for emergency shelters at local level Improve coordination between agencies towards comprehensive land use planning Promote data sharing among technical agencies Improve public awareness on climate change issues Propose insurance policy for development in risk areas

35 Conclusions Effective implementation shall depend on commitment of state and local government and various agencies thus the present mechanism and policy to be understood and adhered to by all including the public and NGOs. Continuous improvement of development plan making process is crucial to address climate change issues


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