Pat’s Schools SITUATION Middle School Excessive absences Poor grades High School Skipped school Failed coursed RESPONSE Middle School Retained in 7 th grade High School Suspensions
Crystal’s Schools SITUATION Middle School Low grades High School Failed English and math courses Failed to become of sophomore RESPONSE Middle School None High School Notified she wasn’t likely to graduate on- time.
Brittney’s Schools SITUATION Middle School Low grades High School Failed General Math Passed other courses RESPONSE Middle School None High School Provided extra help in math in her sophomore year. Encouraged to complete her course requirements Arranged class schedule to meet her needs
Ricky’s Schools SITUATION Middle School Fell behind completing school work Low grades High School Completed college prep curriculum RESPONSE Middle School Teachers provided extra help High School Assigned a guidance counselor in the 9 th grade
What happened to our students? Pat –Dropped out Crystal –Earned a GED Brittney –Graduated late Ricky –Graduated on-time
Why Students Dropout Dropouts are twice as likely to say they left for school related reasons as for family or personal circumstances. School related factors are a better predictor of who will dropout than such characteristics as race, poverty, gender, or family background.
Prediction 85% of eventual dropouts can be identified by 9 th grade. –50% of eventual dropouts show signs in 5 th & 6 th grade. The strongest predictors are academic failure & disengagement from school
What schools can do Early warnings of dropping out Excessive absenteeism Suspension/Behavior grades Failed courses, especially in 9 th grade Extreme drop in GPA Overage due to earlier retentions
Intervention Most effective intervention provide ongoing, comprehensive counseling that is personalized. Occasional tutoring, counseling, or activities to boost self-esteem do almost nothing to keep students in school.
Prevention High-quality pre-kindergarten has many benefits, including high school completions Small schools Good relationships with adults Strong and relevant curriculum
Recovery Unfortunately, researchers can’t reliably predict 100% of eventual dropouts. Some programs are showing considerable promise. More research is needed.
How did Ricky’s schools do? Prediction: identified Ricky early Intervention: provided on-going personalized support Prevention: established good adult relationships and provided Ricky with a rigorous and relevant curriculum Recovery: didn’t need to because they kept Ricky on track to graduate.
Earnings boost for college degree has grown immensely Source: Mortenson, T. (2007, November). Average family income by educational attainment of householder 1967 to 2006. Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 185. (p. 15) Change in average family income from 1973 to 2006
Education pays off median annual earnings of adults 25 and over SOURCE: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007
Job tasks are changing across the economy Source: Levy, F. & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The new division of labor: How computers are creating the next job market. Princeton, NJ: Russell Sage Foundation. (p. 50, Figure 3.5)
SOURCE: Carnavale, College for All? Change, January/February 2008 Postsecondary education means more than ever: The ‘upskilling’ of jobs Percent of workers with some college
Nearly two-thirds of new jobs will require postsecondary education or training Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2008, February). Occupational projections and training data: 2008-9 edition. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor. (p. 4, Table I-3) Projected new jobs 2006-2016
Three kinds of learning are becoming increasingly important if not essential for students to succeed in work and life: Traditional academic knowledge and skills Real world application of academic knowledge & skills, or “applied literacies” Broader competencies, or so-called 21 st century skills
More formal education = more advantage Traditional subjects still matter Traditional subjects alone are not enough –for success both on the job and in their personal lives, students must also better learn how to apply what they learn Defining a 21 st Century Education
Average college applicant GPA 3.1 ACT 21 Trigonometry and chemistry 75%
Ricky’s Chances of Getting into a Good College GPA 2.0 ACT 18 Trigonometry and chemistry 50% GPA 2.0 ACT 18 Algebra II and biology 37%
What would raise a student’s chances? More rigorous coursework –Pre-calculus 75% to 79% Higher ACT –22 over 2175% to 78% Increase GPA –3.1 to 3.675% to 79%
The highest level of mathematics in high school is the strongest predictor of completing a BA/BS. Finishing a course beyond the level of Algebra 2 (for example, trigonometry or pre-calculus) more than doubles the odds that a student who enters postsecondary education will complete a bachelor’s degree. Mathematics impact SOURCE: Adelman (2006)TheToolbox Revisited.
What is the likelihood of each of our students being able to solve this problem?
The screening test for electrician apprenticeships Source: National Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee for the Electrical Construction and Maintenance Industry, http://www.njatc.org/training/apprenticeship/index.aspxhttp://www.njatc.org/training/apprenticeship/index.aspx
IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT GETTING STUDENTS INTO COLLEGE
Trades becoming more technical, requiring stronger math & reading The math and reading skills required for electricians, construction workers, upholsterers and plumbers are the same as what’s necessary to succeed in first-year college courses. SOURCE: ACT, Readiness for College and Readiness for Work: Same or Different, Iowa City, IA. 2006
Ready for College and Ready for Work: Same or Different? ACT study answered question by: Identifying the level of reading and mathematics skills students need to be ready for entry-level jobs that require less than a bachelor’s degree, pay a wage sufficient to support a family, and offer the potential for career advancement Comparing student performance on ACT tests that measure workforce readiness with those that measure college readiness Determining if the levels of performance needed for college and workforce readiness are the same or different SOURCE: ACT, Readiness for College and Readiness for Work: Same or Different, Iowa City, IA. 2006
The high school curriculum matters Challenges: Providing rigorous curriculum to all students, not just some Providing relevance and support so all students learn it Key Lesson
ARE YOUR GRADUATES PREPARED FOR POSTSECONDARY SUCCESS?
Student outcome data for high school and beyond Graduation rates – by race, ethnicity, family income – by special program Local targets – AP, IB tests – ACT, SAT – Curriculum rigor completion Postsecondary success
College acceptance College enrollment College remediation College proficiency (persistence) College completion Career success What data can we gather?
College remediation 28% of all new freshmen required remediation Students in 2-yr colleges were twice as likely to require remediation compared to their peers in 4-yr college (42% to 20%) SOURCES: NSF, Science & Engineering Indicators, 2006; NCES, Condition of Education, 2004
NSC: National Student Clearinghouse Their database contains records for 92 percent of all students enrolled in postsecondary institutions in the U.S. Through their High School Tracker program, NSC offers data services for $425 per year per high school so schools can track the performance of their graduates through postsecondary education.
These services will show: –How many graduates enroll in postsecondary education? –Whether they attend two- or four-year colleges? –How many of them persist to a credential or degree? –How much time it took to college graduation? www.studentclearinghouse.org NSC: National Student Clearinghouse
Survey graduates Survey parents of graduates Survey business community Other Data to Collect
Look at the data What happens to our graduates after they leave our schools? –Longitudinal data State data systems National Student Clearinghouse –Meet with your local community college –Survey local businesses and trades
Questions to consider What is our default curriculum? Is our high school curriculum aligned with the expectations of our local colleges? Are school counselors ensuring that all students start taking the right courses as soon as they enter high school? Do all of our students have access to effective teachers? Do we provide sufficient supports for struggling students, including extra time? Do we provide teachers sufficient professional development and time for collaboration?
Using technology to raise graduation rates in Bedford Co, TN
Some other models High Tech High Schools Career Academies Dual enrollments High Schools That Work (SREB) Internships, especially those that connect work experience to coursework
More information on these topics www.centerforpubliceducation.org www.centerforpubliceducation.org Keeping kids in school: What research says about preventing dropouts Better late than never: Examining late high school graduates Defining a 21 st Century Education Chasing the college acceptance letter: Is it harder to get into college? Pre-K Toolkit
Give us your feedback! www.centerforpubliceducation.org or send me an email: Jim Hull, firstname.lastname@example.org