Presentation on theme: "INDEKS KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN = Environmental Sustainability Index Diabstraksikan oleh: soemarno, psdl ppsub, desember 2012 Bahan Kajian pada MK. PSDAL."— Presentation transcript:
INDEKS KELESTARIAN LINGKUNGAN = Environmental Sustainability Index Diabstraksikan oleh: soemarno, psdl ppsub, desember 2012 Bahan Kajian pada MK. PSDAL CEKAMAN LINGKUNGAN
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS Diunduh dari: ……………… 29/11/2012 Environmental stress refers to physical, chemical, and biological constraints on the productivity of species and on the development of ecosystems. When the exposure to environmental stressors increases or decreases in intensity, ecological responses result. Stressors can be natural environmental factors, or they may result from the activities of humans. Some environmental stressors exert a relatively local influence, while others are regional or global in their scope. Stressors are challenges to the integrity of ecosystems and to the quality of the environment. Read more: Ecological Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articles Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articleshttp://science.jrank.org/pages/6549/Stress-Ecological.html#ixzz2DYxYzPz2
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS Diunduh dari: ……………… 29/11/2012 Species and ecosystems have some capacity to tolerate changes in the intensity of environmental stressors. This is known as resistance, but there are limits to this attribute, which represent thresholds of tolerance. When these thresholds are exceeded by further increases in the intensity of environmental stress, substantial ecological changes are caused. Read more: Ecological Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articles Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articleshttp://science.jrank.org/pages/6549/Stress-Ecological.html#ixzz2DYy0sH9z
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS Diunduh dari: ……………… 29/11/2012 Environmental stressors can be grouped into the following categories: 1.Physical stress refers to brief but intense exposures to kinetic energy. This is a type of ecological disturbance because of its acute, episodic nature. Examples include volcanic eruptions, windstorms, and explosions. 2.Wildfire is also a disturbance, during which much of the biomass of an ecosystem is combusted, and the dominant species may be killed. 3.Pollution occurs when chemicals are present in concentrations large enough to affect organisms and thereby cause ecological changes. Toxic pollution can be caused by gases such as sulfur dioxide and ozone, by elements such as arsenic, lead, and mercury, and by pesticides such as DDT. Inputs of nutrients such as phosphate and nitrate can influence productivity and other ecological processes, causing a type of pollution known as eutrophication. Read more: Ecological Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articles Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articles
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS Diunduh dari: ……………… 29/11/2012 Environmental stressors can be grouped into the following categories: 1.Thermal stress occurs when releases of heat influence ecosystems, as happens in the vicinity of natural hot-water vents on the ocean floor, and near industrial discharges of heated water. 2.Radiation stress is associated with excessive loads of ionizing energy. This can occur on mountain tops where there are intense exposures to ultraviolet radiation, and in places where there are exposures to radioactive materials. 3.Climatic stress is associated with excessive or insufficient regimes of temperature, moisture, solar radiation, and combinations of these. Tundra and deserts are examples of climatically stressed ecosystems, while tropical rainforests occur under a relatively benign climatic regime. 4.Biological stresses are associated with the diverse interactions that occur among organisms of the same or different species. Biological stresses can result from competition, herbivory, predation, parasitism, and disease. The harvesting and management of species and ecosystems by humans is a type of biological stress. The introduction of invasive, non-native species may be regarded as a type of biological pollution. Read more: Ecological Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articles Stress - Environmental, Species, Stressors, and Ecosystems - JRank Articles
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS Diunduh dari: 2/12/2012 HEAT STRESS Heat Stress is a condition that arises from a variety of factors among the most important of which are: 1. the ambient temperature, 2. the relative humidity, 3. the level of effort required by the job, and 4. the clothing being worn by an exposed individual. An individual who is experiencing Heat Stress will tend to exhibit an array of measurable symptoms which can include some or all of the following: 1. an increased pulse rate, 2. a greater rate of perspiration, and 3. an increase in the individual’s body temperature
ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS Diunduh dari: 2/12/2012 Heat Stress Disorders The five physical disorders that can arise from heat stress, listed in increasing order of se- verity, are as follows: 1. Heat Rash: A heat rash — also often referred to as “prickly heat” — tends to arise in an individual after a period of prolonged sweating. It is characterized by an itchy reddening of the skin and a sudden decrease in the rate of perspiration. 2. Cramps: Heat cramps arise as a result of prolonged periods of a combination of sweating and a lack of fluid and salt intake. Such a situation causes an overall body electrolyte imbalance, and the primary symptomatic manifestation is severe muscle cramps, most frequently in the abdomen. 3. Dehydration: Dehydration is the result of excessive fluid loss. Among its most common causes are: excessive sweating, vomiting, diarrhea, and/or alcohol consumption. Symptoms of dehydration are often subtle but include exhaustion, overall weakness, dry mouth, decreased work output, etc.
HEAT STRESS DISORDERS Diunduh dari: 2/12/ Heat Exhaustion: Heat exhaustion arises from extreme cases of dehydration. It is characterized by some or all of the following conditions or symptoms: increasing pulse rate, decreasing blood pressure, slight to moderate increases in body temperature, fatigue, increasing levels of sweating, lack of skin color, dizziness, blurred vision, head-ache, decreased work output, and collapse. 5. Heat Stroke: Heat stroke is usually the result of very significant overexposure to the factors of heat stress. It can also arise from drug or alcohol abuse and on occasion from genetic factors. Heat stroke is almost always accompanied by an increase in body temperature to levels greater than 104°F (40°C). Symptomatic indications include: chills, irritability, hot & dry skin, convulsions, and unconsciousness.
COLD STRESS Diunduh dari: 2/12/2012 Cold Stress differs dramatically from Heat Stress. Typically a body will adapt to conditions of Heat Stress by increasing its level of perspiration in an effort to provide increased cooling. Cold Stress adaptations usually involve a decrease in the blood flow to the skin and the extremities. The principal causes of Cold Stress are exposure to cold temperatures and vibrations, either singly or in combination.
COLD STRESS DISORDERS Diunduh dari: 2/12/2012 The four physical disorders that can arise from cold stress, listed in increasing order of se- verity, are as follows: 1.Chilblains: Chilblains usually arise as a result of inadequate clothing during periods of exposure to cold temperatures and high relative humidities. Reddening of the skin accompanied by localized itching and swelling are the principal indications of chilblains. 2. Frostnip: Frostnip, which is similar to frostbite, results from prolonged, unprotected exposures to cold temperatures above 32°F (0°C). Symptoms of frostnip are areas of pain and/or itching, and a distinct whitening of the skin. 3. Frostbite: Frostbite is produced from unprotected exposures to cold temperatures at or below freezing — i.e., ≤ 32°F or 0°C. Frostbite is characterized by the sequential change in skin color from white to gray to black [depending upon the temperature and the length of exposure], a reduction in the sensations of touch ranging from slight to total [again depending upon the temperature and the length of exposure], and numbness. 4. Hypothermia: Hypothermia results from extreme exposures to the factors of cold stress, coupled possibly with dehydration and/or exhaustion. Alcohol and/or drug abuse can also contribute to hypothermia. A person who is experiencing hypothermia will usually show some or all of the following symptoms: chills, euphoria, pain in the extremities, slow and weak pulse, body temperature of less than 95°F (35°C), fatigue, drowsiness, and unconsciousness
AMBIENT CONDITIONS RELATED TO THERMAL STRESS Diunduh dari: 2/12/ Dry Bulb Temperature The Dry Bulb Temperature is the most direct measurement of air temperature. By definition, it is to be accomplished by the use of a capillary thermometer that is completely exposed to and/or immersed in the air mass whose temperature is to be measured. This thermometer should be shielded from sources of radiant heat. 2.Air or Wind Speed The Air or Wind Speed is simply the rate at which a mass of air is passing an arbitrary stationary point. The direction of movement is not important since this measure is used principally in a determination of the convective heat transfer to and from the air. It is typically measured by an anemometer. 3.Globe Temperature The Globe Temperature of an air mass arises from the combination of heat input by radiation from the surroundings coupled with the simultaneous heat loss by the convective movement of air around the Globe Temperature measurement device, which is a 6-inch diameter, thin-walled copper, spherical globe, painted matte black with an appropriate temperature sensor at its center
AMBIENT CONDITIONS RELATED TO THERMAL STRESS Diunduh dari: ……………… 2/12/2012 Wet Bulb Temperature 1.The Wet Bulb Temperature of an air mass differs from the Dry Bulb Temperature measurement by the fact that the fluid reservoir bulb of the capillary thermometer that is used to make this measurement is encased in a sheath of water moistened cloth. This wet sheath provides cooling to the thermometer bulb by the evaporation of water, in most cases causing the Wet Bulb Temperature to be less than its Dry Bulb Temperature counterpart — the obvious exception to this is the case where the ambient relative humidity is 100%, a condition wherein evaporation, and the resulting evaporative cooling, are effectively eliminated. 2.There are actually two categories of Wet Bulb Temperature. The first is the Natural Wet Bulb Temperature which is obtained simply by encasing a capillary thermometer bulb in a wet cloth and then using this combination to make an air temperature measurement. The other category is described as a Psychrometric Wet Bulb Temperature. 3.Psychrometric Wet Bulb Temperatures are obtained by the use of a sling psychrometer, a tool that is made up of a pair of identical capillary thermometers, one of which is bare while the other is sheathed in a wet cloth. To obtain a reading from a sling psychrometer, this mechanism is whirled through the air, a process that produces a maximized rate of evaporative cooling for the wet bulb. The difference in the temperatures indicated by the two thermometers of a sling psychrometer can then be used to determine the relative humidity of the air mass being measured.
EFFECTIVE TEMPERATURE Diunduh dari: 2/12/2012 The Effective Temperature is an index that is used to relate the subjective effect that the thermal environment might be expected to have on the comfort of an individual who is exposed to that environment. It is a combination of the Dry Bulb, the Wet Bulb, and the Globe Temperatures. Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index [usually abbreviated, WBGT] is the most widely used algebraic approximation of an “Effective Temperature” currently in use today. It is an Index that can be determined quickly, requiring a minimum of effort and operator skill. As an approximation to an “effective temperature,” the WBGT takes into account virtually all the commonly accepted mechanisms of heat transfer (i.e., radiant, evaporative, etc.). It does not account for the cooling effect of wind speed. Because of its simplicity, WBGT has been adopted by the American Conference of Government Hygienists (ACGIH) as its principal index for use in specifying a heat stress related Threshold Limit Value (TLV). For outdoor use (i.e., in sunshine), the WBGT is computed according to the following algebraic sum: WBGT = 0.7 [NWB] [GT] [DB]. For indoor use, the WBGT is computed according to the following slightly modified alge braic sum: WBGT = 0.7 [NWB] [GT]. where: [NWB] = Natural Wet Bulb Temperature; [GT] = Globe Temperature; [DB] = Dry Bulb Temperature.
CEKAMAN RADIASI Diunduh dari: ……………… 2/12/2012 Ionizing Radiation Ionizing radiation is radiation with enough energy so that during an interaction with an atom, it can remove tightly bound electrons from the orbit of an atom, causing the atom to become charged or ionized. Forms of electromagnetic radiation. These differ only in frequency and wave length: Heat waves; Radiowaves; Infrared light; Visible light; Ultraviolet light; X rays; Gamma rays. Longer wave length, lower frequency waves (heat and radio) have less energy than shorter wave length, higher frequency waves (X and gamma rays). Not all electromagnetic (EM) radiation is ionizing. Only the high frequency portion of the electromagnetic spectrum which includes X rays and gamma rays is ionizing.
CEKAMAN RADIASI Diunduh dari: ……………… 2/12/2012 Particulate Specific forms of ionizing radiation: Particulate radiation, consisting of atomic or subatomic particles (electrons, protons, etc.) which carry energy in the form of kinetic energy or mass in motion. 1.Alpha particles and beta particles are considered directly ionizing because they carry a charge and can, therefore, interact directly with atomic electrons through coulombic forces (i.e. like charges repel each other; opposite charges attract each other). 2.The neutron is an indirectly ionizing particle. It is indirectly ionizing because it does not carry an electrical charge. Ionization is caused by charged particles, which are produced during collisions with atomic nuclei. 3.The gamma and X rays, which are electromagnetic, indirectly ionizing radiation. These are indirectly ionizing because they are electrically neutral (as are all electromagnetic radiations) and do not interact with atomic electrons through coulombic forces.
CEKAMAN RADIASI Diunduh dari: ……………… 2/12/2012 CEKAMAN ELEKTROMAGNETIK Electromagnetic stress is the subtle, or not so subtle, effects of stray or chaotic Electrical and magnetic fields on the human body. It is an important cause of stress today for almost everyone. It is particularly bad for people in certain occupations such as airline personnel and those that work with computers, television sets, for example. Avoiding electromagnetic stress is becoming more and more difficult today. It is especially challenging in cities, where cell phone towers, automobiles, and cell and portable phones are used extensively. Red infrared heat lamps. If possible, have some reddish infrared heat lamps positioned around your home. They will purify certain frequencies of energy in the home.
OVERVIEW OF THE POTENTIAL HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 1A.17 Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Perubahan Iklim & Kesehatan There is consideration worldwide on the potential health impacts from global climate change. Ada tiga macam dampak kesehatan : – Relatively direct impacts, usually caused by weather extremes – Consequences of environmental change and ecological disruption in response to climatic change – Consequences that occur when populations are demoralised and displaced by the following climate change induced factors: economic dislocation, environmental decline and conflict situations including traumatic, infectious, nutritional, psychological and other health consequences.  World Health Organisation (WHO) Climate change and human health: risks and responses. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Env ironmental Conditions Social Conditions (upstream determinants of health Health System Condition s Climate Change Direct Exposures Indirect Exposures (Changes in food quality, disease vectors, ecosystem changes) Changes in Social Disruption Health Impacts Modifying Influence Jalur-jalur Cuaca mempengaruhi Kesehatan Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Efek Kesehatan 1. Temperature-related illness and death 2. Extreme weather- related health effects 3. Air pollution-related health effects 4. Water and food-borne diseases 5. Vector-borne and rodent- borne diseases 6. Effects of food and water shortages 7. Effects of population displacement CLIMATE CHANGE Human exposures Regional weather changes Heat waves Extreme weather Temperature Precipitation Source: based on Patz, et al., 2000 Modulating influences Hubungan antara Perubahan Iklim dan Kesehatan Most expected impacts will be adverse but some will be beneficial. Expectations are not for new health risks, but rather changes in frequency or severity of familiar health risks Contamination pathways Transmission dynamics Agro-ecosystems, hydrology Socioeconomics, demographics Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Dampak langsung PANAS terhadap Kesehatan The human body maintains body temperature in ambient temperatures not exceeding 32 degrees C Above this temperature, heat lost through the skin and sweating Heat-related illness occurs when the body unable to adequately cool Minimum ambient temperatures are also important: a)Difficulties cooling when minimum temperature is greater than 22 degrees C High humidity reduces effectiveness of sweating and increases the risk of heat-related illness at any given temperature. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Relative Atmospheric Temperature (°C) Humidity(%) and Temperature % % % % % % % % % % % At an apparent temperature, (T a ) of: 32–40°C Heat cramps or heat exhaustion possible 41–54°C Heat cramps or heat exhaustion likely, heat stroke possible 54°C< Heat stroke highly likely Exposure to full sunshine can increase the heat index value by up to 8 o C Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Dampak naiknya suhu udara terhadap kesehatan Dampak langsung terhadap kesehatan: a)Heat cramps – muscular pains and spasms b)Heat exhaustion – body fluids are lost through heavy sweating c)Heat stroke – is life threatening. Indirect impacts: a)Range of areas that can potentially be affected with gradual and extreme temperature increases b)Includes impacts on ecosystems, water, food, disease- carrying vectors, lifestyle, community resilience. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Dampak Banjir terhadap Kesehatan 1.Immediate deaths and injuries 2.Non-specific increases in mortality 3.Infectious diseases – leptospirosis, hepatitis, diarrhoeal, respiratory, and vector-borne diseases 4.Exposure to toxic substances 5.Mental health effects 6.Indirect effects 7.Increased demands on health systems. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Banjir : Efek langsung thd Kesehatan Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Banjir : Efek tidak-langsung thd Kesehatan
Climatic Change: Suplai air minum Iklim lebih-kering menyebabkan: – Changes to land cover and run-off patterns (erosion) – Increased bushfire risk – Increased sediment, nutrient and debris. Banjir juga mempengaruhi suplai air bersih: – Coastal intrusion – Contamination. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
1.Reduction in flows to dams and groundwater aquifers 2.Increased evaporation from surface water storages 3.Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers 4.Acidification of susceptible inland aquifers 5.Meningkatnya risiko akibat: a)Concentration of nutrient and chemical contaminants b)Formation of toxic algal bloom Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx Climatic Change: Suplai air minum
Perubahan Iklim : Kualitas Udara 1.Weather has a major role in the development, transport, dispersion and deposition of air pollutants 2.Air pollution episodes are often associated with stationary or slowly moving air masses 3.Air pollutants and fine particulate matter may change in response to climate change. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
1.Airflow on edges of a high-pressure system can transport ozone precursors. Ozone levels are increasing in many areas 2. An increase in fire events will mean increased toxic gases and particulates 3. Changes in wind pattern may increase long-range transport of air pollutants 4. Weather patterns can enhance urban “heat islands” which can lead to elevated pollution levels. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx Perubahan Iklim : Kualitas Udara
Dampak Potensial thd Kesehatan 1. Ozone – pneumonia, COPD, asthma,allergic rhinitis and others – prematuremortality 2. Particulate matter (PM) – known toaffect morbidity and mortality 3. Toxic gases and PM from fires contributeto acute and chronic respiratory illness.Evidence from 1997 Indonesia fires –transboundary impacts 4. Wind blown dust (respirable particles,trace elements) from desert regions canaffect populations in remote areas.Evidence that mortality is increased inthe days after a dust storm. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Perubahan Iklim: Penyakit - vektornya Nyamuk Distribusi vektor akan berubah akibat dari: Increasing temperature Changing rainfall: a)Increase or decrease b)Seasonality Cyclones, flooding Changes in animal host/reservoir populations Rising sea levels Pasang-surut ekstrim Hilangnya penyangga pantai. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Penyakit-bervektor-Nyamuk: Faktor Manusia Location of population: – Geographic location – Proximity to water bodies Urban environment: – Peri-domestic breeding Mobility of population – Arrival of infected people a)International b)Interstate c)Intrastate Living standards: – Insect screens, air conditioning – Social/political breakdown. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Produksi Pangan : Lahan Pertanian berbasis lahan: Food production, loss of soil fertility, erosion and salinization: – Changes in crop yields and protein levels (+/-) – Effects on feed intakes and animal reproduction – Changes to pests, weeds and diseases – Changes to use of agrochemicals Dietary and nutritional changes Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Produksi Pangan: Perikanan Perikanan pantai dan laut: A change in coastal circulation patterns can affect: – Suplai hara – Lagoon flushing – Erosi pantai – Ocean acidity and coral bleaching – Penurunan produktivitas. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Keamanan Pangan Food borne disease may cause food poisoning: – May increase the proliferation of bacterial pathogens including Salmonella, Campylobacter and Listeria spp. – May increase mycotoxins and aflatoxins in seafood. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Dampak Sosial Lifestyle and behaviour are likely to be affected in the following ways: Increased temperatures: – Increases in crime - particularly involving aggression – Accidents - workplace and traffic – Decline in physical health – Hot nights may cause sleep deprivation – Recreational opportunities - changes to exercise patterns – Changes in alcohol consumption – Stress – Lack of cold water- reduced ability to cool down Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Mental Health can be impacted as follows: – Anxiety and depression – Post traumatic stress disorder – Insecurity – Grief – Stress, self harm and possible suicide – Drug and alcohol misuse – Impacts on individuals, communities – Loss of social cohesion – Dislocation – Specific impacts on children, women and elderly. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx Dampak Sosial
Economic impacts may be as follows: Loss of income and/or assets Reduction of goods and services Higher costs of insurance, food, water and energy Financial strain for Governments and others Impacts on provision of health services. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx Dampak Sosial
Degree to which individuals and systems are susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes Integration of: Need to identify and address the vulnerability components individually and integrated for specific sectors and communities. RegionalEconomicSocialInfrastructure & Services Overall Vulnerability Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx Kerentanan
Penduduk yang Rentan Elderly Children (immature immune response) Socio-economically disadvantaged Women, especially pregnant and breastfeeding women The obese Those who are not acclimatized, e.g. new arrivals Those who have underlying medical conditions or immuno- compromised especially cardiovascular disease Athletes and other participants in outdoor recreational activities Manual labourers, outdoor workers Mentally ill, disabled and homeless Physically unfit – reduced vital capacity Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Pemicu Kerentanan Kepadatan penduduk Urbanisasi Public health infrastructure Other infrastructure: a)Energy b)Water c)Transport Economic and technological development. Diunduh dari sumber: unfccc.int/files/cooperation_support/nama/.../ch8_human_health.pptx
Health Impacts of Climate Change and Health Conference: Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine 25 Nov 2009 A.J. McMichael National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University Canberra, Australia
Gas Rumah-kaca dan Temperatur 1.Global av temperature: clearcut (albeit naturally wobbly) uptrend 2.Geophysical ‘fingerprints’ implicate increased GHG concentration as main cause of 0.7 o C rise since Global climate models, now highly-coupled, perform well on record of past ‘forcings’/temperature relationship – globally and regionally 4.Six internationally-agreed plausible ‘human futures’ scenarios (i.e. story- lines yielding GHG emissions at high, medium, low levels) 5.Repeated runs with many models yield a range of best central estimates for the 6 scenarios of o C, by 2100 [IPCC 2007] 6.Range in projected temperature rise to mostly due to residual uncertainties about climate system response to existing or imminent atmospheric GHGs 7.Uncertainties re warming in later decades mostly reflect unknowable ‘human futures’ Diunduh dari sumber:
West Antarctic ice sheet Arctic ice sheets East Antarctic ice sheet 60myr 50myr 40myr 30myr 20myr 10myr Now Millions of Years Before Present Temp o C * (vs av temp) +3 o C +5 o C Perkembangan suhu bumi ? Sea level metres higher than today Tripati et al Science 2009 Paleocene * Temp measured at deep ocean +1.5 o C last 2m yr = ice-age Diunduh dari sumber:
Perubahan Iklim terjadi lebih cepat IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) now looks conservative [in addition to cautious review process] Subsequent research shows increasing rates of: Global Greenhouse Gas emissions Ice melting (Arctic sea ice, Greenland/Antarctic ice-sheets, alpine glaciers) Naiknya muka air laut Also: Increasing saturation of carbon ‘sinks’ (land and oceans) Estimated amount of carbon stored in permafrost = twice the atmospheric carbon 1m: half of Bangladesh rice fields 2m: most of Mekong Delta Diunduh dari sumber:
Climate Change and Health Research Tasks and Policy Foci Human society: Population size Economic activity Culture, governance Human pressure on environment Based on: McMichael et al., Brit med J, 2008 Adaptation: Reduce health impacts/risks Human impacts: Livelihoods Social stability Health Health Co- benefits? Unintended health effects Mitigation of Climate Change: Reduce GHG emissions Climate - environmental changes, affecting: Meteorological conditions Water flows Food yields Physical (protective) buffers Microbial activity Extreme weather events 4 Risks to humans better understood 2 3 Natural environmental processes 1 a-c Need for local prevention Diunduh dari sumber:
Perubahan Iklim : Jalur dampak kesehatan Physical systems (river flows, soil moisture, ocean temp) Biological cycles, in nature … & Ecological links/function Economic/social impacts: infrastructure, farm/factory production, GDP growth, jobs, displacement Human Health: Injuries/deaths Thermal stress Indirect health impacts – ecologically mediated Indirect health impacts – socially mediated Direct impacts (extreme weather events, heatwaves, air pollutants, etc.) Infectious diseases Under-nutrition Mental stresses Other disorders Climate Change Impacts Diunduh dari sumber:
Iklim & Penyakit Infeksi 1.Climatic conditions set geographic and seasonal limits of potential transmission. 2.Other environmental, social and behavioural factors – and public health strategies – determine where/when actual transmission occurs. Diunduh dari sumber:
Model-fitted relationship of monthly Salmonellosis case counts in relation to monthly av. temperature in five Australian cities, Average MonthlyTemperature o C Salmonella count Perth Brisbane Adelaide Melbourne Sydney D’Souza et al., 2003 Diunduh dari sumber:
Photo- synthetic activity 20 o C30 o C40 o C Hasil Produksi Pangan: Hubungan antara Temperature dan Photosynthesis 0% 100% Example: Field & Lobell. Environmental Research Letters, 2007: Globally averaged: +0.5 o C reduces crop yields by 3-5%. So: +2 o C would mean 12-20% fall in global grain production. +2 o C Plus: Floods, storms, fires Droughts – range, severity Pests Diseases Diunduh dari sumber:
World -0.6 to-0.9 Developed countries +2.7 to+9.0 Developing countries -3.3 to-7.2 Southeast Asia -2.5 to-7.8 South Asia to Sub-Saharan Africa -3.9 to -7.5 Latin America +5.2 to From: Tubiello & Fischer, 2007 % Change (range) Model dampak perubahan iklim terhadap produksi serealia global: Percent change, 1990-to-2080 Diunduh dari sumber:
Mitigation and Adaptation Avoiding the Unmanageable Managing the Unavoidable Diunduh dari sumber:
‘Vulnerability’ & ‘Adaptation’ D Schroter et al, 2004 Diunduh dari sumber:
External exposure: climatic and environmental conditions Sensitivity of exposed population: immune status, nutritional status, housing conditions, etc. Adaptive Capacity: Local governance Community cohesion Funds available Public health capacity Potential health impact - risk of occurrence of malaria Actual adaptive actions e.g. Regional government Meteorological forecasts Community Surface-water control Mosquito spraying Rapid case treatment Household/personal House repairs Bed-nets Net Vulnerability to risk of malaria Population Health Impact: actual outcome Vulnerability, Adaptasi & Risiko Malaria Diunduh dari sumber: