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Seminar, 23 Maret 2010 Universitas Gunadarma CAFTA SO WHAT?? Oleh: Prof. Dr. Eriyatno Center for Policy Reform.

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Presentation on theme: "Seminar, 23 Maret 2010 Universitas Gunadarma CAFTA SO WHAT?? Oleh: Prof. Dr. Eriyatno Center for Policy Reform."— Presentation transcript:

1 Seminar, 23 Maret 2010 Universitas Gunadarma CAFTA SO WHAT?? Oleh: Prof. Dr. Eriyatno Center for Policy Reform

2 CATTENACHIO STRATEGY 1.Comparative Advantage 2.KONG-CHOW 3.Swadeshi CAFTA So What??

3 SIAUW-LIEM PAY VS BOE-TONG PAY Kode rimba persilatan: Tidak mungkin seorang tay hiap menguasai ilmu dari dua perguruan yang berbeda aliran CAFTA So What?? US MODEL VS CHINA MODEL INDO MODEL: Pilih mana??

4 Page 4 SAVING RATE US: 0%  4% (09)  6% (10) China: >20% (2.1 US $ T in reserve) China punya US Bond B $ REFINANCING-DEBT STRATEGY (Gali Utang-Tutup Utang) * Jual obligasi untuk melunasi pinjaman agar bisa mengajukan hutang baru DEBT TRAP

5 Page 5 US : Nation of Debtors -13 credit cards per household -Average $ mortgage (8.3 miliion negative equity) -US budget $3.6 T; deficit $1.75 T -US unemployment : 10.2 % US Export No 1: Debt

6 Page 6 FAKTA : HUTANG RI Sukarno ( ): Rp. 23 T Suharto ( ): Rp. 540 T Habibie ( ): Rp. 740 T SBY ( ): Rp. 1552T - pinjaman ln : Rp. 643 T, i=4% - obligasi/SUN : Rp. 909 T, i=9% - Oct 2008 : Rp T - Oct 2009 : Rp T (32% PDB) *Catatan: PDB 2009 di patok Rp T *Proyeksi Hutang  2010 (30-31% PDB) 2014 (24-25% PDB) *Penerimaan negara dan hibah Rp T (2008)

7 Page 7 PROFIL JATUH TEMPO UTANG RI Tahun Pinjaman luar negeri (Rp triliun) Surat berharga negara (Rp triliun) Total (Rp triliun)

8 CAFTA So What?? RULE OF LAW KEBIJAKAN DISCRETIONARY POWER KEBIJAKSANAAN STRATEGIC DECISION (POLICY RESEARCH) BLINK DECISION (MOTIVATIONAL RESEARCH

9 CAFTA So What?? THE BAIL- OUT C- CASE PERPU – JPSK/PBI KEBIJAKAN KEPUTUSAN KKSK/KK KEBIJAKSANAAN 15 SIB-SYSTEMIC IMPORTANT BANK (TECHNICAL CRITERIA) BANK GAGAL BERDAMPAK SISTEMIK (FAKTOR PSIKOLOGIS) THE BEGINNING OF THE END

10 CAFTA So What?? Crisis Management Protocol LEGAL LIMIT Timeliness Lack of info Shock absorber Text Insurance for Decision Makers Masalah adalah Belum ada CMP...!!!

11 CAFTA So What?? THE POSSIBILITY OF POLICY ERRORS In diagnosing the problem 1 In forecasting its prospect 2 In prescribing the right medicine 3 In determining the correct dosage of prescription medicine 4 K. Valaskakis, 1973 CRISIS TRAP

12 CAFTA So What?? The freedom to act and think as one wishes usually within legal limits Ilmu Silat  Refleks hasil latihan tahunan Ilmu Ekonomi  Rekfleksi “school of thought” Decision Science  Refleksi “motivational drive n” DISCRETIONARY

13 CAFTA So What?? Stability is the root of Instability (oxymoron) 1 Moral hazards (Evil follows the Devil) 2 Politisasi Kriminal (Watergate) 3 Counterknowledge (Unproven Hypothesis) 4 Conspiracy Theory (Chameleon Attitude) 5 MENYELESAIKAN MASALAH DENGAN MASALAH

14 CAFTA So What?? Just trusting intuition, especially intuition unenlightened by logic, leads to desperate detours and even dead ends Remember that even while walking in the dark, we have to keep our eyes wide and avoid preconceived ideas Whether errors in analysis come from models or not, they maybe directly linked to experts whose erroneous view point are spread out the basis of simple reputation. WHY NEED CMP ??

15 CAFTA So What?? CMP DESIGN 1.It can provide interpretation of the vast amount of information monitored by the system. It helps the policy makers greatly in finding the roots of the problems and opportunities. 2.It provides explanations to questions that may be raised by CMP–users about the reasoning factors or the conception of the system integration. 3.It helps in model formulation and algorithm option as well as in the result interpretation, thus making better use of analytical tools while performing the decision making activity. The best available method IESS-Intelligent Executive Support System (Chen and Yuefeng, 2003) The Effectiveness of IESS

16 CAFTA So What?? 4.It gives problem solution through reasoning with domain knowledge when numerical/ quantitative calculation is non-feasible or insufficient 5.It contains knowledge about search strategy, helps the users access relevant data, information and other form of reliable sources. 6.Application of modern ICT will support interactive consultation and consensus management by various disciplines of experts. 7.Complex calculus and symbolic processing can be easily integrated within IESS.

17 CAFTA So What?? CMP-product must convey consensus rather than analytical conclusion. Therefore, the protocol must follow the rule of maximum focus group discussion. (Pierce, 2008) Expert opinion is the backbone of CMP quality assurance. The CMP-team is not one-man show.

18 CAFTA So What?? Step by step guidance in hostile environment Art of navigating within turbulence weather 1.Within legal limit 2.Flexibility management Produk: JUKLAK/JUKLIS-Formal APLIKASI CMP

19 CAFTA So What?? Jim Collins, 2009 FIVE STAGES OF DECLINE

20 CAFTA


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