Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scanning for Planning Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant CIL 2006 Alane Wilson Senior Library Market.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scanning for Planning Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant CIL 2006 Alane Wilson Senior Library Market."— Presentation transcript:

1 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scanning for Planning Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant CIL 2006 Alane Wilson Senior Library Market Consultant

2 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Trend Spotting started here for OCLC

3 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Why Do This?  Western Union  Personal computer  Amazoogle, YaBay,  Skating where the puck will be

4 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Futuring: 4 Questions  Can we predict the future?  Can we know the future?  Can we control the future?  Can we influence the future? NO YES NO YES

5 OCLC Online Computer Library Center The Four Types of Change ContinuousDiscontinuous Trends Aging Economic growth Events Fall of Berlin Wall September 11 Improvements Market share Fewer defects Transformations New leadership New vision Given Chosen From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston

6 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Prediction and Forecasting Prediction  Physical evidence  Strong assumptions  Unitary phenomenon  Higher quality inferences Forecasting  Intangible evidence  Weak assumptions  Multiple possibilities  Lower quality inferences From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston

7 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Short-term horizonLong-term horizon Single domainMany domains Few factorsMany factors Focus on continuityFocus on discontinuity Hide uncertaintyReveal uncertainty Single forecastAlternative forecasts Quantitative techniquesQualitative techniques Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting Forecasts - Two Approaches From Dr Peter C Bishop, University of Houston

8 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scenarios enhance creativity in visioning Scanning for trends Identify key forces Scenario matrix narratives Vision Mission Goals Likely and alternative futuresPreferred Futures Generation of new strategies Evaluation of new and existing strategies Strategic priorities and plan of action Diagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures Are strategies robust? Do they work in most or all scenarios? Do strategies align with vision, mission and goals?

9 OCLC Online Computer Library Center What is Environmental Scanning?  “Environmental scanning focuses on the identification of emerging issues, situations and potential pitfalls that may affect an organization…in essence, it is a method for identifying, collecting and translating information about external influences into useful plans and decisions.” Kendra S Albright, “Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success.” Information Management Journal, 38(3), May/June 2004.

10 OCLC Online Computer Library Center

11 Content of an Environmental Scan  STEEP  Social, technological, environmental, economic, political landscapes  PEST(LE)  Political, economic, social, technology (legislative, environmental)  SETRLL  Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries  Whatever!

12 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Trend Spotting It’s about observing, reading, musing, synthesizing and understanding

13 OCLC Online Computer Library Center This Isn’t a Trend It’s a disaster… Best not to be here

14 OCLC Online Computer Library Center The 3 Main Challenges  Management and corporate culture  They’re just not that into trends  Resources  Time, funds, attention  Understanding and applying trends  Thinking BIG and…so what?

15 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Management and corporate culture

16 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Resources  Too much, not enough, too expensive, no time, who cares I’m retiring…

17 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Understanding and Applying Trends  Back to STEEP, PEST and SETRLL

18 OCLC Online Computer Library Center The Amazoogle* Effect  Comprehensive  Accessible  Immediate gratification  Market-of-One *Coined by Lorcan Dempsey, OCLC VP of Research

19 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Convenience Trumps Quality  Scientists:  Google  Yahoo  PubMed  Librarians:  Science Direct  ISI Web of Science  MedLine Source: John Regazzi, “ The Battle for Mindshare: A battle beyond access and retrieval” “In a survey for this lecture, librarians and scientists were asked to name the top scientific and medical search resources that they use or are aware of. The difference is startling.”

20 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Libraries in the “infosphere” 2004 Published Content Published Content Institutional Content Institutional Content Special Collections Special Collections Web Context

21 OCLC Online Computer Library Center College Students - Use of electronic resources Q855

22 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Why haven’t you ever used the online library Web site?

23 OCLC Online Computer Library Center How do you select which electronic information source to use? Q715

24 OCLC Online Computer Library Center …is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines? Q1205

25 OCLC Online Computer Library Center …is the information you get from library sources more or less trustworthy than information you get from search engines? Q1205

26 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Decreased activities due to Internet use Read the newspaper Read books Watch television Listen to the radio Visit with friends/family in person 39 % 21 % 14 % 26 %

27 OCLC Online Computer Library Center “Lifestyle fit” of information sources Total Respondents Q1345

28 OCLC Online Computer Library Center The Library – An Idea Amplifier? “If a CEO can see his company as primarily an idea amplifier, then he can understand his "brand" properly. Vision doesn't require molecules, it never did. What it requires is something worth believing in.” Hugh Macleod – gapingvoid.com

29 OCLC Online Computer Library Center Last Thoughts…Finding a Vision “We are here to find meaning. We are here to help other people do the same. Everything else is secondary.” Hugh Macleod – gapingvoid.com

30 OCLC Online Computer Library Center

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39 The Internet of Things  “spimes” & “blogjets”

40 OCLC Online Computer Library Center So long, and thanks for all the fish

41 OCLC Online Computer Library Center I’d like to acknowledge the ideas and content I’ve used here from Dr. Peter C. Bishop, futurist and faculty member at the University of Houston, and from Trendwatching.com, a trendspotting company.


Download ppt "OCLC Online Computer Library Center Scanning for Planning Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant CIL 2006 Alane Wilson Senior Library Market."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google