Presentation on theme: "Mike Schimmelpfennig – January 15, 2015 An Engineer’s Perspective."— Presentation transcript:
Mike Schimmelpfennig – January 15, 2015 An Engineer’s Perspective
Currently it’s a proposed rule. It is 645 pages. – 12 pages for contents and outline information – About 40% of the pages are justification for the rule. Justification is based on reduced human health issues (reduced heart attacks and asthma), better weather (reduction in hurricanes and other significant weather events) and more energy related jobs.
Final rule expected by 6/1/15. (p. 47) Allows for individual and multi-state plans. Each state must submit an initial plan by 6/30/16. (p.47) Final state plans due by 6/30/17 or 6/30/18 if multi-state. (p. 48)
The stated goal is a 30 percent reduction in CO2 emissions from electric generating units by 2030 for the United States. Each state has a different goal for CO2 reduction. The EPA suggests a “building block” approach to achieve the CO2 reductions to include demand side energy efficiency reductions, renewable energy and heat rate improvements. For Missouri, the interim goal is 1621 and a final goal of 1544 LBS of CO2 per MW-HR. For Illinois, the interim goal is 1366 and the final goal is 1271 LBS of CO2 per MW-HR. Interim goal by 2020 through 2029 and the final goal is due by 2030. (p. 346)
Building Blocks: – 6% improvement in coal plant efficiency. Most economic improvements have already been done. – Increase natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) dispatch. Assumes a 70% capacity which is not a good economic choice. – Increase RE generation from 1.3 million MWh to 2.8 million MWh by 2029 and continue to operate nuclear fleet at 90% capacity. – Increase demand-side efficiency by 1.5% annually and a cumulative of 9.92% by 2030. This has never been done historically anywhere.
Reduced weather event savings by 2030 - $30 billion (“global social cost savings”) Health savings benefits by 2030 - $25 to $59 billion (“global social cost savings”) (p. 57) Cost of implementation by 2030 - $7.3 billion Projects jobs growth in energy of 100,000+ per year. (p. 60) Gina McCarthy: “So, by 2030, we are actually looking at electricity bills for families going down by 8 percent.” http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/epa-chief-defends-price-white-house- plan-cut-carbon-emissions/ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/epa-chief-defends-price-white-house- plan-cut-carbon-emissions/
The agency is determining state goals for affected EGU (Electric Generating Unit) emission performance based on application of BSER (Best System of Emission Reduction) during specified time periods. This raises the question of whether affected EGU emission performance should only be maintained -- or instead should be further improved -- once the final goal is met in 2030. (p. 419)
– Is it real? Politically, can there be any doubt? – Does the temperature data support claims? – Is it better to be warmer or colder? – If it’s bad, how does it get corrected?
Brisbane hits coldest temperature in 103 years http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/brisbane-hits-coldest-temperature-in- 103-years/story-e6frg6n6-1226986116278?nk=9fe3cbf4f5bf37a6dc3f771dfd4654b8 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/brisbane-hits-coldest-temperature-in- 103-years/story-e6frg6n6-1226986116278?nk=9fe3cbf4f5bf37a6dc3f771dfd4654b8 Coldest Antarctic June Ever Recorded http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/coldest-antarctic-june-ever-recorded/ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/12/coldest-antarctic-june-ever-recorded/ New York breaks record cold as temps hit 5 degrees, smashing 118-year mark set in 1896 http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/deep-freeze-midwest-prepares-50-article-1.1567597 http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/deep-freeze-midwest-prepares-50-article-1.1567597 NAMED HURRICANES BY YEAR
Global Warming 'Fabricated' by NASA and NOAA - http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/23/Global-warming-Fabricated-by-NASA-and-NOAA http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/23/Global-warming-Fabricated-by-NASA-and-NOAA Australian Bureau of Meteorology accused of Criminally Adjusted Global Warming - http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart- London/2014/08/25/Australian-Bureau-of-Meteorology-accused-of-Criminally-Adjusted-Global-Warming http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart- London/2014/08/25/Australian-Bureau-of-Meteorology-accused-of-Criminally-Adjusted-Global-Warming Extreme Weather is Linked to Global Warming, a New Study Suggests - http://www.universetoday.com/114076/extreme-weather-is-linked-to-global- warming-a-new-study-suggests/ http://www.universetoday.com/114076/extreme-weather-is-linked-to-global- warming-a-new-study-suggests/ NASA Scientist Puzzled by Global Cooling - http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/science-us-climate- oceans/2014/10/06/id/598864/?Dkt_nbr=Newsmax&utm_source=Newsmax&utm_mediu m=widget&utm_content=5&utm_campaign=widgetphase2?ns_mail_uid=36752517&ns_m ail_job=1589243_10072014&s=al&dkt_nbr=gtwfhh1a http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/science-us-climate- oceans/2014/10/06/id/598864/?Dkt_nbr=Newsmax&utm_source=Newsmax&utm_mediu m=widget&utm_content=5&utm_campaign=widgetphase2?ns_mail_uid=36752517&ns_m ail_job=1589243_10072014&s=al&dkt_nbr=gtwfhh1a Irreversible Damage Seen From Climate Change in UN Leak - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/irreversible-damage-seen-from-climate-change-in-un- leak.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-26/irreversible-damage-seen-from-climate-change-in-un- leak.html Extent of Antarctic sea ice reaches record levels - http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/record-coverage-of-antarctic-sea-ice/5742668 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/record-coverage-of-antarctic-sea-ice/5742668 Top scientist resigns from post - admits Global Warming is a scam http://www.sott.net/article/277349-Top-scientist-resigns-from-post-admits-Global-Warming-is-a-scam http://www.sott.net/article/277349-Top-scientist-resigns-from-post-admits-Global-Warming-is-a-scam WHAT CAN YOU BELIEVE?
Coal burning produces about 2100 LBS of CO2 per MW-HR. http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11 Natural gas burning produces about 1200 LBS of CO2 per MW-HR. http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11 http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11 3.62% of all Green House Gases (GHGs) are CO2. http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/GlobalWarmingPrimer.pdf (see p. 6) http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/GlobalWarmingPrimer.pdf 3.4% of all the earth’s CO2 is man-made. http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/GlobalWarmingPrimer.pdf (see p. 7) http://www.ncpa.org/pdfs/GlobalWarmingPrimer.pdf The USA produces 14.14% of all the man-made CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions 32% of USA’s man-made CO2 is from the burning of fossil fuels for producing electricity. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources.html http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources.html
3.62% X 3.4% is 0.123 percent. This is the percentage of man-made GHG CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere. 14.14% X 32% is 4.52 percent. This is the percentage of USA’s man-made CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere from electric generation. 4.52% X 30% is 1.36 percent which is the final 2030 reduction in the USA for man-made CO2 if this rule becomes reality. 1.36% X 3.4% is 0.046 percent which is the maximum reduction in world-wide man-made CO2. 0.046% X 3.62% is 0.0017 percent which is the maximum reduction in world-wide GHG CO2.
Burn natural gas? Natural gas price is currently about $4.25 / Mbtu, and coal is about $2.10 / Mbtu delivered. Complete CO2 capture projects on existing coal units? Estimated cost is $0.03 / KW-HR and a loss of 15 to 25 percent of the generating output. http://sequestration.mit.edu/pdf/David_and_Herzog.pdf http://sequestration.mit.edu/pdf/David_and_Herzog.pdf Retire coal units and replace with wind and solar? Hidden costs are huge. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/renewable-energys-hidden-costs/ http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/renewable-energys-hidden-costs/
Australia to repeal unpopular tax on carbon emissions http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/07/17/332251967/australia-repeals-an-unpopular-tax-on-carbon- emissions http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/07/17/332251967/australia-repeals-an-unpopular-tax-on-carbon- emissions Coal Returns to German Utilities http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04- 14/coal-rises-vampire-like-as-german-utilities-seek-survival.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04- 14/coal-rises-vampire-like-as-german-utilities-seek-survival.html Ontario bids farewell to coal http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/editorials/Editorial+Ontario+bids+farewell+coal/9748912/story.html http://www.ottawacitizen.com/opinion/editorials/Editorial+Ontario+bids+farewell+coal/9748912/story.html Ontario electricity consumers can expect their bills to jump almost 50 per cent in the next three years http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-electricity-rates-to-keep-rising-as-long-term-energy-plan-released-1.1569774 http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-electricity-rates-to-keep-rising-as-long-term-energy-plan-released-1.1569774
Construction of World’s Largest Carbon Capture Project Under Way – 240 MW, Estimated Cost $1 Billion http://coalage.com/news/latest/3757-construction-of-world-s- largest-carbon-capture-project-under-way.html#.U8kuC4BdXSI#UF0983 http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2014/07/15/nrgs-1b-bet-to- show-how-carbon-capture-could-be-feasible-for-coal-power-plants/ http://coalage.com/news/latest/3757-construction-of-world-s- largest-carbon-capture-project-under-way.html#.U8kuC4BdXSI#UF0983http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2014/07/15/nrgs-1b-bet-to- show-how-carbon-capture-could-be-feasible-for-coal-power-plants/ But we have a problem and it is NOT that the appropriate new technologies don't exist or haven't reached a competitive price point. The problem is us. We haven't figured out how to engage and motivate the end use energy customer - which basically is the entire American public and electorate - to pay attention, to take control of their individual energy destiny, to make energy decisions that are not only in their economic self- interest but critical, collectively, to the long run health of the planet that we all cherish and depend upon. David Crane, CEO, NRG http://www.nrg.com/news/executive-blog/post/build-the-clean-energy-movement-with-nrg http://www.nrg.com/news/executive-blog/post/build-the-clean-energy-movement-with-nrg
Note: Current Ontario, Canada electric rates are, OFF-PEAK 7.5¢/kWh, MID-PEAK 11.2¢/kWh, ON-PEAK 13.5¢/kWh http://www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/OEB/Consumers/Electricity/Electricity+Prices http://www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/OEB/Consumers/Electricity/Electricity+Prices 25% RE 25% Nuc 45% RE 50% Oil 28% Gas & Nuc 80% Nuc 14% RE 35% Oil 33% Gas & Nuc 76% Oil 40% Gas 32% Coal 18% Nuc 40% Coal 27% Gas 17% Nuc 72% Hyd 11% Gas 48% Gas 20% Coal 16% Nuc 68% Coal 17% Hyd 58% Hyd 20% Coal 64% Coal 22% Hyd
“The relationship between load growth and gross domestic product growth appears to have slowly eroded since the end of World War II”, said PJM Interconnection LLC Chief Economist Paul Sotkiewicz. “There could be a number of reasons for this erosion, including energy efficiency, declining median incomes and multiple families consolidating under one roof due to economic hardships”, he said. But “it's hard to discern what's actually going on.”
Can a 0.0017% reduction in GHGs return any positive results for human health and weather events? How likely are electric rates to be decreased by burning more natural gas, CO2 capture or retiring existing coal units?
Comment on the EPA’s Clean Power Plan: http://www2.epa.gov/carbon-pollution-standards/how-comment-clean-power-plan-proposed-rule http://www2.epa.gov/carbon-pollution-standards/how-comment-clean-power-plan-proposed-rule Write to Congress: Senate Contact Information: https://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfmhttps://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm House of Representative Contact Information: http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/ Join and Participate in the ACC: http://www.americancoalcouncil.org/ http://www.americancoalcouncil.org/
Mike Schimmelpfennig email@example.com Thank You!