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Ria ekonomikis makroekonomika: ZiriTadi cnebebi Tavi 29 marina nacvalaZe.

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Presentation on theme: "Ria ekonomikis makroekonomika: ZiriTadi cnebebi Tavi 29 marina nacvalaZe."— Presentation transcript:

1 Ria ekonomikis makroekonomika: ZiriTadi cnebebi Tavi 29 marina nacvalaZe

2 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Ria da Caketili ekonomika Caketili ekonomika aris ekonomika, romelic ar urTierTqmedebs sxva qveynebis ekonomikasTan Ria ekonomika aris ekonomika, romelic Tavisuflad urTierTqmedebs sxva ekonomikebTan

3 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Ria ekonomika aRiwereba iseTi cvladebiT, rogorebica eqsporti, importi, savaWro balansi da savaluto kursi. Ria ekonomika yidulobs da yidis saqonelsa da momsaxurebas msoflios sasaqonlo bazrebze; Ria ekonomika yidulobs da yidis kapitalur aqtivebs msoflios finansur bazrebze.

4 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. saqonlis nakadi: eqsporti, importi da wminda eqsporti eqsporti aris qveynis SigniT warmoebuli da qveynis gareT gayiduli saqoneli da momsaxureba. importi aris qveynis gareT warmoebuli da qveynis SigniT gayiduli saqoneli da momsaxureba.

5 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. saqonlis nakadi: eqsporti, importi da wminda eqsporti wminda eqsporti ( NX ) aris ucxoelTa mier SeZenili samamulo saqonlis Rirebulebisa (eqsporti) da samamulo rezidentebis mier SeZenili ucxouri warmoebis saqonlis Rirebulebis (importi) sxvaoba. wminda eqsports aseve uwodeben savaWro balanss. savaWro balansi aris qveynis eqsportisa da importis RirebulebaTa sxvaoba.

6 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. saqonlis nakadi: eqsporti, importi da wminda eqsporti savaWro deficiti aris situacia, rodesac wminda eqsporti (NX ) aris uaryofiTi. importi > eqsporti savaWro upiratesoba aris situacia, rodesac wminda eqsporti (NX ) dadebiTia. Eeqsporti > importi dabalansebuli vaWroba gviCvenebs imas, rom wminda eqsporti nulis tolia – eqsporti da importi erTmaneTis tolia.

7 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. faqtorebi, romlebic moqmedeben qveynis eqsportze, importze da wminda eqsportze. momxmarebelTa gemovneba samamulo da ucxouri saqonlis mimarT. saqonlis fasi qveyanaSi da ucxoeTSi. savaluto kursi, romliTac adamianebs SeuZliaT erovnuli valutiT ucxouri valuta iyidon.

8 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. faqtorebi, romlebic moqmedeben qveynis eqsportze, importze da wminda eqsportze. momxmarebelTa Semosavlebi. qveynidan qveyanaSi saqonlis transportirebis xarjebi. mTavrobis politika saerTaSoriso vaWrobasTan mimarTebiT.

9 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. mSp-is procen- tebi eqsporti importi 0 5 10 15 1950195519601965197019751980199019851995 aSS-is ekonomikis internacionalizacia 1995

10 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. kapitalis nakadi: wminda ucxouri investiciebi wminda ucxouri investiciebi ucxour aqtivebSi samamulo rezidentebis mier gadaxdili Tanxisa da samamulo aqtivebSi ucxoelTa mier gadaxdili Tanxis sxvaobaa. aSS-is moqalaqes, romelsac $20 000 aqvs, SeuZlia iyidos rogorc `toiotas markis avtomobili, aseve korporacia `toiotasaqciebi. pirveli garigeba saqonlis nakads warmoadgens, xolo meore garigeba – kapitalis nakads.

11 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. kapitalis nakadi: wminda ucxouri investiciebi rodesac saqarTvelos moqalaqe ruseTis fiWuri kavSirgabmulobis kompania `bilainis aqciebs yidulobs, es garigeba saqarTvelos wminda ucxour investiciebs zrdis. rodesac ruseTis moqalaqe saqarTvelos samTavrobo obligaciebs yidulobs, es garigeba saqarTvelos wminda ucxour investiciebs amcirebs.

12 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. gavixsenoT: rogori saxis investiciebi viciT? rogori saxis investiciaa makdonaldsis mier saqarTveloSi restornis gaxsna? rogori saxis investiciaa amerikelis mier qarTuli korporaciis aqciebis SeZena?

13 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. pirdapiri da portfeluri investiciebi orive SemTxvevaSi aSS-is moqalaqeebi sxva qveyanSi arsebul aqtivebs yiduloben, amitom orive garigeba aSS-is wminda ucxour investiciebs zrdis.

14 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. cvladebi, romlebic gavlenas axdenen wminda ucxour investiciebze ucxouri aqtivebis sargeblis realuri ganakveTi. samamulo aqtivebis sargeblis realuri ganakveTi. ucxoeTSi aqtivis flobis ekonomikuri da politikuri riski. samTavrobo politika, romelic gavlenas axdens samamulo aqtivebis ucxour mflobelobaze.

15 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. wminda eqsportisa da wminda ucxouri investiciebis toloba wminda eqsporti (NX) da wminda ucxouri investiciebi (NFI ) erTmaneTs unda awonasworebdes. mTlianad ekonomikaSi, NX da NFI erTmaneTis toli unda iyos: NFI = NX es toloba samarTliania, vinaidan TiToeulma garigebam, romelic tolobis erT mxareze moqmedebs, zustad asee unda imoqmedos meore mxarezec. es toloba igiveobaa _ igi samarTliania masSi monawile cvladebis ganmartebebidan gamomdinare.

16 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. wminda eqsportisa da wminda ucxouri investiciebis toloba – magaliTi: amerikuli korporacia `boingi yidis TviTmfrinavs. mas yidulobs iaponuri aviakompania. saqonlis nakadi: amerika iaponia ucxouri aqtivebi: amerika iaponia

17 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. wminda eqsportisa da wminda ucxouri investiciebis toloba – magaliTi: saqonlis nakadi: amerika iaponia ucxouri aqtivebi: amerika iaponia izrdeba aSS-is wminda eqsportic da aSS-is wminda ucxouri investiciebic.

18 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. wminda eqsportisa da wminda ucxouri investiciebis toloba – magaliTi: `boings SeuZlia ienebi dolarebSi gaucvalos sxva amerikul kompanias, romlesac ienebi surs `toSibas kompiuterebis SesaZenad. aSS importi (kompiuterebi) = aSS eqsporti (TviTmfrinavebi) es garigebebi ar imoqmedebs arc aSS-is wminda eqsportze da arc aSS-is wminda ucxour investiciebze.

19 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. danazogebi, investiciebi da maTi damokidebuleba saerTaSoriso nakadebTan wminda eqsporti mSp-is erT erTi komponentia: Y = C + I + G + NX erovnuli danazogi qveynis Semosavlis is nawilia, romelic rCeba mimdinare moxmarebisa da saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis xarjebis gaRebis Semdeg: Y - C - G = I + NX

20 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. danazogebi, investiciebi da maTi damokidebuleba saerTaSoriso nakadebTan erovnuli danazogi ( S ) tolia Y-C-G anu: S = I + NX an samamulo investiciebi wminda ucxouri investiciebi danazogi +=

21 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. realuri da nominaluri gacvliTi kursebi msoflio bazarze saerTaSoriso fasebi axorcieleben momxmareblisa da mwarmoeblis gadawyvetilebis koordinacias. ori umniSvnelovanesi saerTaSoriso fasebia – nominaluri da realuri gacvliTi (savaluto ) kursebi.

22 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. nominaluri savaluto kursi nominaluri savaluto kursi is kursia, romliTac erTi qveynis valuta meore qveynis valutaze icvleba. nominaluri savaluto kursis gamoxatva ornairad SeiZleba: ucxouri valutis wili dolarTan mimarTebaSi. aSS-is dolaris wili ucxour valutasTan mimarTebaSi. Tu savaluto kursia 80 ieni erT dolarSi, es imas niSnavs, rom savaluto kursia 1/80 (=0.0125) dolari erT ienSi. Cvens msjelobaSi nominalur savaluto kurss gamovxatavT ucxouri valutis aSS dolarTan SefardebiT, magaliTad 80 ieni erT dolarSi.

23 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. nominaluri savaluto kursi Tu dolari yidulobs ufro met ucxour valutas, amboben rom moxda dolaris Rirebulebis zrda. Tu dolari yidulobs ufro nakleb ucxour valutas, amboben rom moxda dolaris Rirebulebis Semcireba.

24 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. realuri savaluto kursi realuri savaluto kursi aris kursi, is Tanafardobaa, romliTac pirovnebas SeuZlia SeiZinos erTi qveynis saqoneli da momsaxureba meore qveynis saqonliTa da momsaxurebiT.

25 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. realuri savaluto kursi realuri savaluto kursi erTmaneTs adarebs samamulo da ucxouri saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fasebs: Tu germanuli ludi amerikulze orjer Zviria, maSin realuri savaluto kursi aris 1/2 boTli germanuli ludi erT boTl amerikul ludze.

26 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. realuri savaluto kursi realuri savaluto kursi damokidebulia nominalur savaluto kursze da ori qveynis valutiT gamoxatul saqonlis fasebze. Real Exchange Rate

27 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. realuri savaluto kursi vinaidan realuri savaluto kursi damokidebulia ori qveynis valutiT gamoxatul saqonlis fasebze, ekonomistebi gaangariSebebSi samomxmareblo fasebis indeqss iyeneben. avRniSnoT: - Tu aSS-is fasebis indeqsi aris - P, - fasebis indeqsi ucxouri firmebisTvis aris - P*, - aSS dolarsa da ucxour valutas Soris nominaluri savaluto kursi aris - e SegviZlia gamovTvaloT realuri savaluto kursi aSS-sa da sxva qveyanas Soris: realuri savaluto kursi = (e x P) / P* es realuri savaluto kursi asaxavs qveyanaSi arsebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis kalaTis fass ucxoeTSi arsebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis kalaTis fasTan SedarebiT.

28 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. realuri savaluto kursi qveynis realuri savaluto kursi am qveynis wminda eqsportis ZiriTadi determinantia. aSS-is realuri savaluto kursis Semcireba niSnavs imas, rom amerikuli saqoneli ufro gaiafda ucxour saqonelTan mimarTebaSi. es stimuls aZlevs rogorc adgilobriv, aseve ucxoel momxmareblebs iyidon ufro meti amerikuli da naklebi ucxouri saqoneli.

29 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. realuri savaluto kursi zrdis aSS-is wminda eqsports. Sedegad, aSS-is eqsporti izrdeba da aSS- is importi mcirdeba, da orive es cvlileba zrdis aSS-is wminda eqsports. aSS-is wminda eqsporti mcirdeba. da piriqiT, aSS-is realuri savaluto kursis zrda niSnavs, rom amerikuli saqoneli gaZvirda ucxour saqonleTan SedarebiT, amitom aSS-is wminda eqsporti mcirdeba.

30 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti aris Teoria, romlis mixedviTac nebismieri valutis erTi erTeuliT unda SegveZlos saqonlis erTi da imave raodenobis SeZena yvela qveyanaSi.

31 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi logika msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis Teoria efuZvneba princips, romlesac ewodeba erTiani fasis kanoni. am kanonis Tanaxmad, saqoneli yvelgan erT fasad unda iyidebodes.

32 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi logika Tu ar sruldeba erTiani fasis kanoni, iarsebebs gamouyenebeli (ganuWvreteli, ganusazRvreli) mogebis miRebis SesaZlebloba ( unexploited profit opportunities). sxvadasxva bazrebze sxvadasxva fasebis upiratesobis gamoyenebis process arbitraJi ewodeba.

33 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi logika yavis fasi sietlSi – 4$; yavis fasi bostonSi – 5$; ra moxdeba bazarze amis Sedegad? yavis fasi aSS-Si – dabalia; yavis fasi iaponiaSi – maRalia; ra moxdeba aSS-sa da iaponiaSi?

34 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi Sedegebi Tu dolaris msyidvelobiTi unari yovelTvis erTi da igivea rogorc amerikaSi, aseve qveynis gareT, maSin realuri savaluto kursi – samamulo da ucxouri saqonlis fardobiTi fasi - ar Seicvleba. ori qveynis valutas Soris nominaluri savaluto kursi damokidebulia qveyanaSi arsebuli fasebis doneebze.

35 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis ZiriTadi Sedegebi vinaidan msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis Teoriis Tanaxmad erT dolars (an nebismier sxva valutas) yvela qveyanaSi saqonlis erTi da imave raodenobis yidva unda SeeZlos, => ori qveynis valutis nominaluri savaluto kursebi am or qveyanaSi arsebuli fasebis dones asaxaven. im qveynebis valutis Rirebuleba, romlebSic inflacia SedarebiT maRalia, mcirdeba, xolo im qveynebis valutis Rirebuleba, romlebSic inflacia SedarebiT dabalia, izrdeba.

36 10,000,000,000 1,000,000,000,000,000 100,000 1.00001.0000000001 19211922192319241925 savaluto kursi fulis miwodeba fasebis done indeqsi ( ianv.1921 = 100) fuli, fasebi da nominaluri savaluto kursi germaniis hiperinflaciis dros

37 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. ori mizezi, Tu ratom ar marTldeba es Teoria msyidvelobiTi unaris paritetis Teoriis gamoyenebis SezRudvebi: ori mizezi, Tu ratom ar marTldeba es Teoria mravali saxis saqoneli erTmaneTSi advilad ar icvleba. sxvadasxva qveyanaSi warmoebuli ori saxis saqoneli, romelTa erTmaneTSi gacvlac SesaZlebelia, yovelTvis srulyofilad Semcvlelebi ar arian.

38 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. savarjiSo 1. erTi boTli mineraluri wyali SeerTebul StatebSi 0.75 dolari Rirs, xolo meqsikaSi – 12 peso. a) ras udris pesosa da dolaris kursi erTmaneTis mimarT, Tu daculia msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti? b) rogor Seicvleba gacvliTi kursi, Tu meqsikaSI fasebi gaormagdeba? a) Tu daculia msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti, maSin 12 peso erT boTl wyalze gayofili $0.75 erT boTl wyalze udris gacvliT kurss - 16 peso erT dolarze. b) Tu meqsikaSi fasebi gaormagdeba, gacvliTi kursic gaormagdeba da gaxdeba 32 peso erT dolarze.

39 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. savarjiSo 1. erTi boTli mineraluri wyali SeerTebul StatebSi 0.75 dolari Rirs, xolo meqsikaSi – 12 peso. a) ras udris pesosa da dolaris kursi erTmaneTis mimarT, Tu daculia msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti? b) rogor Seicvleba gacvliTi kursi, Tu meqsikaSi fasebi gaormagdeba? pasuxi: a)Tu daculia msyidvelobiTi unaris pariteti, maSin 12 peso erT boTl wyalze gayofili $0.75 erT boTl wyalze udris gacvliT kurss - 16 peso erT dolarze. b)b) Tu meqsikaSi fasebi gaormagdeba, gacvliTi kursic gaormagdeba da gaxdeba 32 peso erT dolarze.

40 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. savarjiSo 2 rogor imoqmedeben qvemoT CamoTvlili garigebebi aSS-is eqsportze, importze da wminda eqsportze? a) xelovnebaTmcodneobis amerikeli profesori zafxuls evropuli muzeumebis TvalierebaSi atarebs pasuxi: pasuxi: rodesac xelovnebaTmcodneobis amerikeli profesori zafxuls evropuli muzeumebis TvalierebaSi atarebs, is fuls xarjavs ucxour saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze, ase rom amerikis eqsporti ar Seicvleba, importi gaizrdeba da wminda eqsporti Semcirdeba. b) parizeli studentebi erTad midian arnold Svarcenegeris ukanaskneli filmis sanaxavad pasuxi: pasuxi: rodesac parizeli studentebi erTad midian arnold Svarcenegeris ukanaskneli filmis sanaxavad, gamodis rom ucxoelebi yiduloben amerikul saqonels, ase rom, eqsporti gaizrdeba, importi ar Seicvleba da wminda eqsporti gaizrdeba.


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