1. The Second HESA Biennial Research and Innovation Conference
The national development plan, national system of innovation and higher education
The Second HESA Biennial Research and Innovation Conference
CSIR, 3-4 April 2012
Michael Kahn
Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602
Research and Innovation Associates

2. HSBC: The World in 2050
China #1 United States #2 India #3 Brazil #7 (wrong! It’s already #6) Egypt #19 (that’s before the Arab Spring!) ZA # 30 (down from #28)

3. South Africa: three crises and three economies
Crisis of exclusion: poverty
Crisis of growth: globalization and technological change
Crisis of the environment: going grey, not green
Economy 1: Formal and wealthy ~ like Norway, but warmer
Economy 2: Informal and poor ~ unquantified
Economy 3: Offshore ~ the ‘Brand’ Trek over the Limpopo

5. London
Houston
Perth
Cape Town

6. Bits of the puzzle…
Employment in Mining
Employment in Agriculture

7. Composition of GDP

8. So where to?

9. 55 GOVT. DEPTS INSTITUTES & MUSEUMS
A national innovation system is ….
CULTURAL
INFORMAL
SECTOR
POLITICAL
BUSINESS
UTILITIES
UNIVERSITIES
ASSOCIATONS
ENVIRONMENTAL
LINKAGES
9 SCIENCE
COUNCILS
55 GOVT. DEPTS INSTITUTES & MUSEUMS
S&T SERVICES
100s NGOs
LEGAL
STANDARDS
I.P. RIGHTS

10. A missing piece Korea 343 USPTO patents over 1963 to 1987
ZA 1744 USPTO patents over 1963 to 1987
Korea USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008
ZA 2232 USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008
Norway 3898 USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008
There is no IP in an ingot of gold or a tonne of coal
High tech exports comprise small volume of exports
Our manufacturers seek technology via foreign partners
What are we going to be doing differently?

11. Enhancing competitiveness in the Platinum Group Mining cluster
Ore extraction, crushing & separation technology
PLATINUM GROUP MINING
Pumps, coolers, machines & conveyors
CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY
Surfactants
Flocculants
Explosives
BIOTECHNOLOGY
Bioleaching
Biodegration
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Electronic detonators
Sensors
Simulation
Tomography
Control systems
Remote sensing
MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY
Haulage
Refrigeration , generators & compressors
Jewelery
ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY
Water management
Chemical recycling
Zero emission technologies
MARKETS
Mining technology
Project management expertise
CATALYSTS & FINE CHEMICALS
Auto catalysts
Fuel cell catalysts
Pharamceuticals
EXPLORATION
Geotechnology
Mapping
Enhancing competitiveness in the Platinum Group Mining cluster

12. Korea – GERD/GDP; BERD/GERD
From 0,8% to 1,5% => from to researchers

13. Thanda Bantu…
Full-time equivalent researchers

14. Ensure policy consistency
Sub-output 5.1.3: Increase the output of doctoral graduates to 1,350 per annum by 2014.

15. From Apartheid Development State to Lean State to Developmental State II?
RDP GEAR ASGISA ….. The New Growth Path (The Nationalization Debate) Industrial Policy Action Plan 1,2,3 Green Paper on PSET Vision for 2030

16. A Development State is …
“A developmental state may be perceived as one that “authoritatively, credibly, legitimately and in a binding manner is able to formulate and implement its policies and programmes. This entails possessing a developmentalist ideology that privileges industrialization, economic growth and expansion of human capabilities. Such a state also has to be able to construct and deploy the institutional architecture within the state and mobilize society towards the realization of its developmentalist project. A developmental state is therefore defined in political, ideological and institutional terms.” (ECA, 2011).

17. NPC diagnostic Too few South Africans work
The quality of school education for most black people is sub-standard
Poorly located and inadequate infrastructure limits social inclusion and faster economic growth
Spatial challenges continue to marginalise the poor
South Africa’s growth path is highly resource-intensive and hence unsustainable
The ailing public health system confronts a massive disease burden
The performance of the public service is uneven
Corruption undermines state legitimacy and service delivery
South Africa remains a divided society

18. Where are the new policies taking us?
New Growth Path: A Workers Utopia where the Competition Commission levels the playing field
Industrial Strategy tries to be all things to all people; lacks focus; weak understanding of innovation
Green Paper on PSET is supply side driven; weak understanding of innovation; inclusion is the main object
Ten Year Innovation Plan – also supply side driven– has captured the research and innovation policy space – deferred to by NGP, IPAP, PSET and NPC

19. Concerned scientists submission to NPC …
Much can be achieved with existing technologies. It is not so much a case of a poverty of technology, as a poverty of politics.
Constructing and implementing solutions requires analytic and technical skill, careful navigation of political constraints, and willingness to learn from one’s mistakes.
Technology, through the digital revolution, plays a considerable part in detecting and promoting corruption, and in service delivery.
Morality and shared values go to the heart of healing our national divides. The social sciences and humanities play the key role in understanding and perhaps mitigating these issues.

20. Ours is a small science and innovation system comparable with Norway, whose population is ten times smaller. But Norway has 25,000 FTE researchers compared with our 19,000. In we produced 5045 scientific publications; Norway In USPTO awards were 115 for both; Norway is now 240, while we are still at 116. Norway’s output of PhDs/million of population was 151, compared with our 27. One exception is the registration of plant cultivars where we are internationally competitive. SET graduates currently comprise 20% of the total.
This should rise to 40% over the next ten to fifteen years.

21. To revitalize postgraduate training we must raise investment levels, hire and retain the best staff, and hunt for this talent locally and globally. We note that our salaries are globally competitive, which implies that the search is one that perhaps requires but a political nod. A sustained and well-funded campaign to train graduates in specific skills, locally and abroad, must be instituted, especially in new and emerging technologies. In order to reduce churn or dropout such a campaign should include measures to build social cohesion in the academic enterprise.
Suspend immigration restrictions for the highly skilled

22. Enhancing higher (vocational and further) education pivots on well-functioning schools that provide quality education in science, mathematics and technology to boys and girls in a well-rounded curriculum.
Re-establish the Dinaledi Academies under DHET

23. One of the tasks of government is to ensure the enabling environment that nurtures such creativity, especially regarding intellectual property rights, an essential step in commercialization. Intangibles require different regulations to the tangibles of physical capital and money.
Review IPR legislation to remove disincentives

24. Foster local design and production especially in capital goods - heavy industry, including energy-efficient power station generators and heat exchangers, locomotives, ships and new generation airships for moving people and heavy loads. This would require cooperation among state-owned enterprises, science councils, the private sector and higher education. At least two policy issues call for attention - ensuring access to local raw materials at prices near cost.
Stipulate that consortia with foreign firms include local production and technology transfer requirements.

25. Enabling people to live with dignity in affordable, fire resistant shelter, near to sources of employment and with access to safe transport is a sine qua non and not rocket science.
Human settlement is a socio-economic and political process, and an engineering issue

26. For the next few decades commodities will dominate the economy
For the next few decades commodities will dominate the economy. In the same way that infrastructure development may foster industrial diversification, so too for the minerals base.
One appreciates the issue of economies of scale, yet remains perplexed to see steel coil sail away and motor car door panels return.
Local must be lekker

27. The overarching project must be the war on poverty, in all its manifestations: access to services, shelter, safety, and economic and social opportunity. This would necessitate an agency with the sole remit to steer, plan and coordinate such a drive, and for it to be staffed with the high-skilled visionaries who can see the opportunities of the contemporary era and have the flexibility, authority and integrity to take the considered risks that make for such innovation.
Declare war on poverty, under a general staff that coordinates the science and innovation system

28. Build the capital goods sector
In our view IPAP is too broad, apparently seeking to make everyone happy. To plan is to choose, and IPAP has not been sharp enough in going for capital goods that are central to the First Economy. Allied to this should be intensification of niche manufacturing and services activities such as catalysis, telemetry, encryption and software engineering.
Build the capital goods sector

29. Support the Third Economy, and build the African common market, in all its manifestations, water, mining, manufacturing and services. This would necessitate government and the private sector operating synergistically in the international domain. Such rapprochement can but benefit the domestic economy as well. The project requires skilful diplomacy across the equator and the South Atlantic, and includes tangible, if not essential scientific cooperation in response to climate change, and food and water security.
Food and water security, with mitigation of climate change is the third national project

30. Establish aPresidential Council on Science & Innovation
Resuscitate capacity in Foresight
A Presidential Council on Science and Innovation should replace NACI. The Council will be provided with professional research support that will ensure that prioritization and agenda setting are carried out with rigour and vigour, that resources are allocated to a well-defined set of major initiatives, and that the institutional landscape is fit for purpose.
PCRI will cover all facets of innovation – technological, social, public sector, education, and (promote) accountability, transparency and responsiveness.
Establish aPresidential Council on Science & Innovation

31. Higher education … Vision for 2030 scopes many of the right things!!!!
Celebrate SARChI, the CoEs and ESASTAP !!!!
Celebrate and insist on openness
Re-think the meaning of the majority classroom
Investigate the impact of social class
Remain focused on core competences: “The most important impacts (of higher education) are of an indirect nature, such as through the supply of highly educated and skilled personnel” (Fagerberg, 2006). Build the SET base.
Work with the National Planning Commission to realize Vision for 2030

32. We bring the African ball to the BRIC Club
CHINA & INDIA
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
(USA)
SOUTH AFRICA HR
(EU)
We bring the African ball to the BRIC Club
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