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Optical components and networking

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Presentation on theme: "Optical components and networking"— Presentation transcript:

1 Optical components and networking
Translucent Inc Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Optical components and networking Michael S. Lebby GM & CTO

2 Capacity Issues & Challenges
Long Term – US Needs More R&D to Retain Leading Role in Network Development & Innovation Industry Structure has Changed Over Time Mid-Term – Escalating Consumer Bandwidth Demands New Technologies to Scale Core, Edge & Datacenters Broadband Ecosystem Highly Interwoven & Interdependent Short-Term – US Opportunity to Regain Leading Role Continuing Investment is Critical Sources: OIDA research, One Chip Photonics

3 R&D gap

4 How do we bridge this gap in the optoelectronics industry?
Industrial based R&D Academia Industry Less companies are profitable Today Relative Investment ($) Risk Expense OE manufacturing nearly all off-shore in Asia GAP Not fashionable to have corporate R&D labs anymore Commercial Product Development & Manufacturing Research Commercial R&D 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Start of concept Time (Yr) Sources: OIDA research Can we afford to do R&D + manf in USA today? 981015di004

5 What has changed over the last decade?
Market share 1993 – Losing manufacturing to Japan 2009 – Movement off-shore broadening and accelerating Competition from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China . . . US companies moving operations off-shore R&D following manufacturing Corporate infrastructure 1993 – Vertically integrated 2009 – Fragmented, down-sized, divested, more focused start-ups Technology platform 1993 – Primarily III-V based 2009 – Si has expanded into optoelectronics areas; higher precision growth, dimensional tolerances and structures Technology drivers 1993 – Corporate central labs 2009 – Central labs no longer exist in industry University research National laboratories Sources: OIDA research Optoelectronics is in deep trouble in USA

6 Photonics markets...are already global

7 Asia dominant in OE/photonics
Asia owned 81% of global 2009 OE market of $353B Sources: OIDA research, IOA North America & Europe minor players

8 Market share in 2021 USA Down 11%  8% Asia remains strong
Sources: OIDA research, IOA Asia remains strong

9 OE/photonics market by major location
By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4% Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR ) Sources: OIDA research, IOA Asian infrastructure strongest

10 OE/photonics market by country
By 2021, OE/photonics will be a $500B business with many countries contributing… China grows quickly US constant Sources: OIDA research, IOA Design + manf  off-shore

11 USA decade trends remain flat
Optical fiber communications and components strong Photonic lighting CAGR of 12.2% Sources: OIDA research, IOA USA  exporting photonics jobs?

12 Networks must address scaling...

13 Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle
Social lifestyle  personal lifestyle Before Computer centric Experts level Data exchange Today Network centric Trained level Archieval/access Future User centric Pedestrian level Knowledgeable Source: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT Lifestyle drives PAN  BAN

14 Social networking user growth is driving bandwidth, datacenters
500M 450M Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 When will the trend slow down?

15 from Exa to Zetta-bytes…
Only 44 Exabytes/month in 2012 Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism Driven by consumer internet…

16 The challenge of network scaling in the core

17 Driven by consumer internet…
The challenges… Network interface rates will reach 10 Tbps Estimates range for 1Tbps in 2015 and up to 10Tbps in 2020 Network traffic growth is outstripping system capacity growth System deployments will accelerate strongly in the coming years System capacity will become the most important factor Simple extrapolation of current methods will not meet the need Progress needed on all fronts (electronics and photonics) simultaneously Market for core based systems will be robust Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Driven by consumer internet…

18 Scaling the core of the network…
We know (or severely suspect) Global system capacity will be important in the next decade And we are not keeping up here in the US… Traffic growth will outstrip capacity growth Volumes will be large and growing (internet utility users) New photonics and electronics technologies are critically needed We are worried that extreme choking (congestion, traffic-jams) will mean consumers will pay more for the data they use… $/bit metrics are here to stay… Sources: OIDA research Limit how we utilize the internet…

19 System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)
forecast trends Gap??? Will traffic >> capacity??? 1Pbps 10Tbps 1Tbps Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Will we fill the fiber optic pipes?

20 System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)
forecast trends Will the price stop us from down loading data? 1Pbps 10Tbps 1Tbps Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Carriers will charge $/bit to slow us down…

21 Challenge is to find 10Tbps technology
System evolution… Asia strong in network design… 1990s Gbps channel rate 8,16, 40 Channels Gbps Capacity SE = History 2000 10 Gbps channel rate 100 Channels 1 Tbps Capacity SE = 0.2 History 2010 100 Gbps channel rate 100 Channels 10 Tbps Capacity SE = 2.0 Near Future 2015 1 Tbps ?? channel rate 100 Channels 50 Tbps Capacity ?? SE = 20 ?? R&D Needed 2020 4 Tbps ?? channel rate 200 Channels 500 Tbps ?? Capacity SE >50 ?? R&D Critically Needed The historical numbers are averaged a bit, but reasonable. The Optical BW is assumed constant, OK from a historical standpoint, since there hasn’t been much change, but maybe not a good assumption for 2020. SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing Even with 2015 target, traffic growth will exceed capacity growth by a factor of 10… Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Challenge is to find 10Tbps technology

22 Networks must address energy...

23 Evolve architecture quickly… (while traffic CAGR >50%)
IP over DWDM transport: Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized equipment Maximize architecture and equipment scalability Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism Challenge: contain energy footprint

24 Cost for power and cooling in data centers
Year 2000 Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is the primary goal, while the infrastructure to support it is assumed ready Year 2006 Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is a given but the infrastructure to support deployment is a limited factor Year 2010 Three cooling challenges System, rack, data center Year 2021 Green designs imperative… Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC Power and cooling spending out of control…

25 What is the effect if graph is mostly red?
Broadband technology Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology Source: OECD What is the effect if graph is mostly red?

26 Architecture evolution – FTTH access
Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, Lange, Deutsche Telekom AG Power consumption expected to rise fast…

27 Photonics will become integrated...

28 Moore’s Law  photonics to follow?
Sources: UCSB, OIDA Photonics Integration Forum, Intel CMOS very successful  can we learn?

29 PIC trends over 3 decades
InP-Membrane on Silicon (IMOS) III-V on silicon (3-5OS) Nanophotonic Integration Technology Digital Analog Generic Integration Technology Source: Meint Smit, TU/e OIDA forum Oct 2008 Photonics is expected to become digital…

30 Integrated photonics over 4 decades…
Courtesy of R. Nagarajan & M. Smit (LEOS Newsletter, 2007) S.E. Miller, 1969 I. Hayashi, 1970 J. Shibata, 1984 O. Wada, 1986 T. Koch, 1991 M. Zirngibl, 1995 C. Steenbergen, 1996 C. Herben, 1999 L. Coldren, 2002 Y. Yoshikuni, 2002 Y. Suzaki, 2002 M. Masanovic, 2003 ASIP/III-V, 2004 R. Nagarajan, 2005 R. Nagarajan, 2006 M. Kato, 2007 R. Nagarajan, 2007 Not shown (EDG-WDM): V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel dynamic equalizer, 2002; V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel power monitor, 2003; A. Densmore, 32-channel receiver, 2005; V. Tolstikhin, 3-channel ONU triplexer, 2005 1000 100 10 1 Sources: OneChip Photonics; Valery Tolstikhin Poised for big impact in fiber comms

31 New optical technologies for the edge
Consumer bandwidth demands are the driving force Applications, architectures, services, content distribution Photonic Integrated Circuits Lower costs Use less space Consume less power Better performance FTTH Delivers Very high bandwidth Network efficiencies Future proof technology Source: OneChip Photonics PICs are the economical solution…

32 Photonic integrated circuits save power
Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption in communications and computing Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical communications links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced cooling requirements and improved cooling capability Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures employing optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory will lead to higher flops/W Sources: Lightwire, IBM Tighter integration leads to lower power

33 What do we need to do technically?
Even more sophisticated modulation formats Current systems at 40 Gbps use DPSK Coming systems will be Polarization Multiplexed QPSK with coherent detection Next: 16QAM? Multi-ring constellations? More optical bandwidth Beyond C+L band Higher power fibers Photonic integrated circuits Game-changer for the edge (FTTH) New laser diode/modulator schemes  maybe non semiconductor ???? If we don’t act  this will take place in Asia… US is in danger of losing leadership in OE R&D

34 Data-centers need to scale also...

35 The Ethernet ecosystem evolves
Broadband Access Content Providers Broadband Access Networks Internet Backbone Networks Content Networks Data Centers and Enterprise Enterprise Networks Internet Backbone Networks Research, Education and Government Facilities Research Networks Internet eXchange and Interconnection Points Source: J. D/Ambrosia, Force10 Networks Datacenters  high speed intersections

36 Why higher speed Ethernet?
Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhere Bandwidth explosion everywhere Increased # of users Increased access rates and methods Increased services + + = As demonstrated by the number of ISPs: Comcast, AOL, YahooBB, NTT, Cox, EasyNet, Rogers, BT, ... EFM, xDSL, WiMax, xPON, Cable, WiFi, 3G/4G… YouTube, BitTorrent, VOD, Facebook, Kazaa, Netflix, iTunes, 2nd life, Gaming… Source: IEEE HSSG Tutorial, Nov 2007. Higher demands on the network

37 Demand outpacing equipment development
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 Data-centers are ‘under pressure’

38 Future data-center evolution…
Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 400G+ solutions are needed Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09

39 Calibration with broadband leader (Japan)

40 Internet traffic in Japan  Tbps
Expansion of Broadband Traffic Amount in Japan (Oct 2009) 104 103 30% increase per year 102 Internet Traffic (Gbps) Peak Traffic of domestic major IX*1 Average Traffic of domestic major IX*1 Broadband service subscriber’s total traffic amount (Estimate) *1 domestic major Internet eXchanges: NSPIXP, JPIX & JPNAP 10 1 10-1 1997 1999 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Internet traffic in Japan  Tbps 40 40

41 Fiber based broadband  obvious
Broadband Services in Japan (Oct 2009) 35 Population : 128 million in Japan (2005) Households : 49 million 30 25 total FTTH DSL 20 CATV Target of Number of Subscribers (million) 15 10 5 Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Fiber based broadband  obvious 41

42 Japan’s R&D example 10Tbps
Development of next-generation high-efficiency network device technology The goal of this project is to increase the speed and efficiency of router switches and storage area networks for the purpose of energy conservation. Development of device technology to create edge routers capable of over 10Tbps Development of low-power-consumption device technology with a transmission capacity of 16Gbps on LAN-SAN, and demonstration of networks using such technology As noted by OITDA – Japanese trade association (as per OIDA in Washington DC), October 2009 Sources: OIDA research, IOA Japan aggressive on R&D…

43 END

44 Thank you for listening
Michael Lebby, PhD MBA DEng CEng General Manager & Chief Technology Officer Translucent 22-Jul-10, Slide prepared by David Williams Earth Abundant Materials Technology Translucent Inc 952 Commercial St Palo Alto, CA94303 Thank you for listening

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