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Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc Copyright © 1 Optical components and networking Michael S. Lebby.

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Presentation on theme: "Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc Copyright © 1 Optical components and networking Michael S. Lebby."— Presentation transcript:

1 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © 1 Optical components and networking Michael S. Lebby GM & CTO lebby@translucentinc.com Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc

2 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Capacity Issues & Challenges Long Term – US Needs More R&D to Retain Leading Role in Network Development & Innovation –Industry Structure has Changed Over Time Mid-Term – Escalating Consumer Bandwidth Demands –New Technologies to Scale Core, Edge & Datacenters –Broadband Ecosystem Highly Interwoven & Interdependent Short-Term – US Opportunity to Regain Leading Role –Continuing Investment is Critical Sources: OIDA research, One Chip Photonics

3 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © R&D gap

4 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © How do we bridge this gap in the optoelectronics industry? 2481416 Time (Yr) Research Commercial R&D Commercial Product Development & Manufacturing Industry Start of concept 12 6 10 Relative Investment ($) 981015di004 Today Industrial based R&D Academia Expense Risk GAP Less companies are profitable OE manufacturing nearly all off- shore in Asia Not fashionable to have corporate R&D labs anymore Can we afford to do R&D + manf in USA today? Sources: OIDA research

5 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © What has changed over the last decade? Market share –1993 – Losing manufacturing to Japan –2009 – Movement off-shore broadening and accelerating –Competition from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China... –US companies moving operations off-shore –R&D following manufacturing Corporate infrastructure –1993 – Vertically integrated –2009 – Fragmented, down-sized, divested, more focused start-ups Technology platform –1993 – Primarily III-V based –2009 – Si has expanded into optoelectronics areas; higher precision growth, dimensional tolerances and structures Technology drivers –1993 – Corporate central labs –2009 – Central labs no longer exist in industry –University research –National laboratories Optoelectronics is in deep trouble in USA Sources: OIDA research

6 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Photonics markets...are already global

7 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Asia dominant in OE/photonics Asia owned 81% of global 2009 OE market of $353B Sources: OIDA research, IOA North America & Europe minor players

8 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Market share in 2021 USA – Down 11%  8% Sources: OIDA research, IOA Asia remains strong

9 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © OE/photonics market by major location By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4% Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR 2010-2021) Sources: OIDA research, IOA Asian infrastructure strongest

10 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © OE/photonics market by country By 2021, OE/photonics will be a $500B business with many countries contributing… China grows quickly US constant Sources: OIDA research, IOA Design + manf  off-shore

11 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © USA decade trends remain flat Optical fiber communications and components strong Photonic lighting CAGR 2010-21 of 12.2% Sources: OIDA research, IOA USA  exporting photonics jobs?

12 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Networks must address scaling...

13 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle Social lifestyle  personal lifestyle Before Computer centric Experts level Data exchange Today Network centric Trained level Archieval/access Future User centric Pedestrian level Knowledgeable Source: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT Lifestyle drives PAN  BAN

14 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Social networking user growth is driving bandwidth, datacenters Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 450M When will the trend slow down? 500M

15 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © from Exa to Zetta-bytes… Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism Only 44 Exabytes/month in 2012 Driven by consumer internet…

16 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © The challenge of network scaling in the core

17 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © The challenges… Network interface rates will reach 10 Tbps –Estimates range for 1Tbps in 2015 and up to 10Tbps in 2020 Network traffic growth is outstripping system capacity growth –System deployments will accelerate strongly in the coming years –System capacity will become the most important factor Simple extrapolation of current methods will not meet the need –Progress needed on all fronts (electronics and photonics) simultaneously Market for core based systems will be robust Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent Driven by consumer internet…

18 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Scaling the core of the network… We know (or severely suspect) –Global system capacity will be important in the next decade And we are not keeping up here in the US… –Traffic growth will outstrip capacity growth –Volumes will be large and growing (internet utility users) –New photonics and electronics technologies are critically needed We are worried that extreme choking (congestion, traffic-jams) will mean consumers will pay more for the data they use… $/bit metrics are here to stay… Limit how we utilize the internet… Sources: OIDA research

19 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © System capacity and network traffic (Including voice) 2010-2030 forecast trends Gap??? Will traffic >> capacity??? Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent 1Tbps 10Tbps 1Pbps Will we fill the fiber optic pipes?

20 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © System capacity and network traffic (Including voice) 2010-2030 forecast trends Will the price stop us from down loading data? Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent 1Tbps 10Tbps 1Pbps Carriers will charge $/bit to slow us down…

21 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © System evolution… 1990s 2.5-10 Gbps channel rate 8,16, 40 Channels 20-160 Gbps Capacity SE =.025-.05 History 2000 10 Gbps channel rate 100 Channels 1 Tbps Capacity SE = 0.2 History 2010 100 Gbps channel rate 100 Channels 10 Tbps Capacity SE = 2.0 Near Future 2015 1 Tbps ?? channel rate 100 Channels 50 Tbps Capacity ?? SE = 20 ?? R&D Needed SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent 2020 4 Tbps ?? channel rate 200 Channels 500 Tbps ?? Capacity SE >50 ?? R&D Critically Needed Even with 2015 target, traffic growth will exceed capacity growth by a factor of 10… Asia strong in network design… Challenge is to find 10Tbps technology

22 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Networks must address energy...

23 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Evolve architecture quickly… (while traffic CAGR >50%) IP over DWDM transport: –Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized equipment –Maximize architecture and equipment scalability Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism Challenge: contain energy footprint

24 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Cost for power and cooling in data centers Year 2000 –Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is the primary goal, while the infrastructure to support it is assumed ready Year 2006 –Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is a given but the infrastructure to support deployment is a limited factor Year 2010 –Three cooling challenges System, rack, data center Year 2021 –Green designs imperative… Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC Power and cooling spending out of control…

25 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Broadband technology Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology Source: OECD What is the effect if graph is mostly red?

26 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Architecture evolution – FTTH access Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, Lange, Deutsche Telekom AG Power consumption expected to rise fast…

27 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Photonics will become integrated...

28 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Moore’s Law  photonics to follow? Sources: UCSB, OIDA Photonics Integration Forum, Intel CMOS very successful  can we learn?

29 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © PIC trends over 3 decades Analog Nanophotonic Integration Technology Generic Integration Technology Digital Source: Meint Smit, TU/e OIDA forum Oct 2008 InP-Membrane on Silicon (IMOS) III-V on silicon (3-5OS) Photonics is expected to become digital…

30 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Integrated photonics over 4 decades… Courtesy of R. Nagarajan & M. Smit (LEOS Newsletter, 2007) 1.S.E. Miller, 1969 2.I. Hayashi, 1970 3.J. Shibata, 1984 4.O. Wada, 1986 5.T. Koch, 1991 6.M. Zirngibl, 1995 7.C. Steenbergen, 1996 8.C. Herben, 1999 9.L. Coldren, 2002 10.Y. Yoshikuni, 2002 11.Y. Suzaki, 2002 12.M. Masanovic, 2003 13.ASIP/III-V, 2004 14. R. Nagarajan, 2005 15. R. Nagarajan, 2006 16. M. Kato, 2007 17. R. Nagarajan, 2007 Not shown (EDG-WDM): V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel dynamic equalizer, 2002; V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel power monitor, 2003; A. Densmore, 32-channel receiver, 2005; V. Tolstikhin, 3-channel ONU triplexer, 2005 Sources: OneChip Photonics; Valery Tolstikhin 1 10 1000 Poised for big impact in fiber comms 100

31 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © New optical technologies for the edge Consumer bandwidth demands are the driving force –Applications, architectures, services, content distribution Photonic Integrated Circuits –Lower costs –Use less space –Consume less power –Better performance FTTH Delivers –Very high bandwidth –Network efficiencies –Future proof technology Source: OneChip Photonics PICs are the economical solution…

32 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Photonic integrated circuits save power Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption in communications and computing –Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical communications links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced cooling requirements and improved cooling capability –Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures employing optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory will lead to higher flops/W Sources: Lightwire, IBM Tighter integration leads to lower power

33 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © What do we need to do technically? Even more sophisticated modulation formats –Current systems at 40 Gbps use DPSK –Coming systems will be Polarization Multiplexed QPSK with coherent detection –Next: 16QAM? Multi-ring constellations? More optical bandwidth –Beyond C+L band Higher power fibers Photonic integrated circuits –Game-changer for the edge (FTTH) New laser diode/modulator schemes  maybe non semiconductor ???? If we don’t act  this will take place in Asia… US is in danger of losing leadership in OE R&D

34 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Data-centers need to scale also...

35 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © The Ethernet ecosystem evolves Research, Education and Government Facilities Research Networks Broadband Access Data Centers and Enterprise Enterprise Networks Content Providers Content Networks Internet Backbone Networks Internet eXchange and Interconnection Points Broadband Access Networks Source: J. D/Ambrosia, Force10 Networks Datacenters  high speed intersections

36 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Why higher speed Ethernet? Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhere Increased # of users Increased access rates and methods Increased services ++= As demonstrated by the number of ISPs: Comcast, AOL, YahooBB, NTT, Cox, EasyNet, Rogers, BT,... EFM, xDSL, WiMax, xPON, Cable, WiFi, 3G/4G… YouTube, BitTorrent, VOD, Facebook, Kazaa, Netflix, iTunes, 2 nd life, Gaming… Source: IEEE 802.3 HSSG Tutorial, Nov 2007. Bandwidth explosion everywhere Higher demands on the network

37 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Demand outpacing equipment development Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 Data-centers are ‘under pressure’

38 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Future data-center evolution… Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09 400G+ solutions are needed

39 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Calibration with broadband leader (Japan)

40 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © 40 Expansion of Broadband Traffic Amount in Japan (Oct 2009) Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 10 -1 1 10 10 2 10 3 Internet Traffic ( Gbps ) 200220032004200520062007200819971998199920002001 Peak Traffic of domestic major IX*1 Average Traffic of domestic major IX*1 Broadband service subscriber’s total traffic amount (Estimate) *1 domestic major Internet eXchanges: NSPIXP, JPIX & JPNAP 2009 10 4 30% increase per year Internet traffic in Japan  Tbps

41 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Broadband Services in Japan (Oct 2009) Year Mar. 200220032004200520062007200820092010 Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 0 5 10 15 20 25 35 Number of Subscribers (million) 20002001 Mar. Target of NTT@2010 30 Population : 128 million in Japan (2005) Households : 49 million total FTTH DSL CATV Fiber based broadband  obvious

42 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © Japan’s R&D example  10Tbps Development of next-generation high-efficiency network device technology –The goal of this project is to increase the speed and efficiency of router switches and storage area networks for the purpose of energy conservation. Development of device technology to create edge routers capable of over 10Tbps Development of low-power-consumption device technology with a transmission capacity of 16Gbps on LAN-SAN, and demonstration of networks using such technology As noted by OITDA – Japanese trade association (as per OIDA in Washington DC), October 2009 Japan aggressive on R&D… Sources: OIDA research, IOA

43 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © END

44 Earth Abundant Materials Technology. Translucent Inc lebby@translucentinc.comTranslucent Copyright © 22-Jul-10, Slide prepared by David Williams Michael Lebby, PhD MBA DEng CEng General Manager & Chief Technology Officer Translucent Earth Abundant Materials Technology Translucent Inc 952 Commercial St lebby@translucentinc.com Palo Alto, CA94303 Thank you for listening


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