1. Earth Systems Science Prof. Joseph Alcamo Center for Environmental Systems Research University of Kassel, Germany Lecture I: Introduction -- Definitions and Driving Forces Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

2. Earth Systems Science Objectives: Understanding the basic principles of earth systems science especially as it concerns the global water system, global land resources, and atmospheric change. Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

3. Earth Systems Science Lecture I: Definitions and Driving Forces Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

4. The Concept of “Earth System” Definition: earth system science Branch of knowledge dealing with Earth as a whole; study of the sum of processes operating in the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, and lithosphere, and their interactions What is included: earth science (atmospheric sciences, geosciences) plus ”large scale“ biological/ecological sciences. Definition: earth system: The various large-scale living and non-living components of the earth, together with their interactions. Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

5. The Concept of “System” Definition of a system: A set of components that interact and function together as a unit. Characteristics: Complexity ≈ Number of components and connections. “Open” or “closed” system: A closed system = no mass or energy exchange with its environment (surroundings). With respect to mass, the earth system is almost a closed system. An open system = significant mass or energy exchange with its environment. With respect to energy, the earth system is almost an open system. Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

6. Example of an Open System Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science Solar constant 1350 W/m 2

7. The “Spheres” of the Earth System Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

8. Spheres of the Earth System Atmosphere – Gas and aerosol component of the earth system above the lithosphere. Lithosphere – Non-living part of the soil environment. Hydrosphere – Water-related component of the earth system – groundwater, soil water, lakes, rivers, oceans. Biosphere – Total living component of the earth system. Sometimes Cryosphere – Areas of permanent/predominantly ice and snow. Ecosphere – Domain of living part of the environment. Technosphere – Domain of society  Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

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10. Biogeochemical cycles Definition: Cycles of elements through the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Especially important because they make available the critical elements to support life. Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

11. Driving Forces of Global Environmental Change Definition of driving forces: With respect to the earth system, the determinants of environmental changes. Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

13. Driving Forces of Global Environmental Change Proximate Drivers Emissions to the atmosphere Emissions to the hydrosphere Land use changes Soil degradation

14. Secondary driver Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science

15. Secondary driver Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science Anthropogenic Driving Forces Secondary Drivers Energy production Agriculture Industry Fishery Tourism Household consumption Transport Proximate Drivers Emissions to the atmosphere Emissions to the hydrosphere Land use changes Soil degradation

16. Population Growth Rate Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science Primary driver

17. Prof. Joseph Alcamo Earth Systems Science Anthropogenic Driving Forces Primary Drivers Change in population (growth or shrinkage) Change in economy (growth or shrinkage) Structural change in the economy Technological change Societal changes (e.g. Institutions, Law, Governance) Secondary Drivers Energy production Agriculture Industry Fishery Tourism Household consumption Transport Proximate Drivers Emissions to the atmosphere Emissions to the hydrosphere Land use changes Soil degradation

18. Primary Driver: Population Change Exponential Growth

19. © 2006 Population Reference Bureau Number of years to add each billion (year) All of Human History (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 14 (2013) 14 (2027) 21 (2048) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005. www.prb.org/presentations/gb-poptrends_all.ppt World Population Growth, in Billions

20. Basic demographic variables Rate of natural increase = birth rate - death rate Birth rate (natality) = births. (%) 1000 people – year Death rate (mortality) = deaths. (%) 1000 people – year General fertility rate = births (%) (per 1000 women 1000 women – year in reproductive years)

21. Geographic Variability of Demographic Indicators Birth rate (%/a)

22. Factors Affecting Birth Rate Fertility Rate Population Pyramid

23. Factors Affecting Birth Rate Total Fertility Rate (births/woman-year) Fertility Rate Educational level of women Family planning programs Changing role of children within workforce (reduction of child labor). Net result: fertility rates higher in developing countries, but decreasing worldwide

24. Reference: US Census Bureau. Global Population Profile 2002 Population Pyramid Number of people of each gender in various age groups Factors Affecting Birth Rate World-wide summary

25. Population Pyramid Number of people of each gender in various age groups Despite decreasing fertility rates, many new parents in developing countries. Many women of parenting age. Factors Affecting Birth Rate Source: John W. Kimball Biology Textbook

26. Population: Industrialized and Developing

27. World Population Growth 1950-2050 Population in billions World: 7,225,984,325 14:50 GMT 12 April, 2014 Population: Industrialized and Developing Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects as Assessed in 2012.

28. Source: UNEP, GEO-5 Demographic Transition

29. Demographic Transition – Four Stages StageFeatureConsequences 1Pre-industrial, large families to support agriculture. Poor nutrition, sanitation (e.g.17th C Eur). high birth rate, high mortality 2Early industrial phase. Improved nutrition, sanitation high birth rate, lower mortality 3Later industrial phase. Less agriculture, fewer large families needed. Education/prosperity reduces desire for large families (e.g. U.S., Can, Rus.) lower birth rate, lower mortality 4Post-industrial. Higher level of prosperity, education. (Dk, Swe) low birth rate  mortality

30. Demographic Transition – Four Stages StageFeatureConsequences 1Pre-industrial, large families to support agriculture. Poor nutrition, sanitation (e.g.17th C Eur). high birth rate, high mortality 2Early industrial phase. Improved nutrition, sanitation high birth rate, lower mortality 3Later industrial phase. Less agriculture, fewer large families needed. Education/prosperity reduces desire for large families (e.g. U.S., Can, Rus.) lower birth rate, lower mortality 4Post-industrial. Higher level of prosperity, education. (Dk, Swe) low birth rate  mortality

31. Demographic Transition DDT Campaign Source: John W. Kimball Biology Textbook Death rate drops faster than birth rate t 2x = 0.69 r = 0.69 0.015 = 57.5 yrs Source: FAO Growth rate (%/yr)

32. Population: Urbanization 1950 29% 2010 50% 2050* 66% * UN, World Urbanization Prospects (2104)

33. Prof. Joseph Alcamo Introduction to Earth Systems Modeling Scenarios of Global Population (UN Revisions 2012) Low fertility High Medium Medium fertility: converge on 1.85 Low: - 0.5 High: +0.5

34. Summary about Global Population Trends Industrialized countries Birth rate  mortality Population stabilizing Developing countries Fertility decline  birth rate decline  population growth slows But, large population reaching parenting age  population increase first exponential, then linear, then stabilizes or declines World population 2014  7.2 B 2100 (UN, 2012)  7 to 17 B

35. Implication of Population Changes on Global Change Why Worry About Population Changes? Population trends  affect the number of consumers of resources, and the type and intensity of consumption (secondary drivers)  changes in magnitude and type of greenhouse gas emissions, wastewater discharges, land requirements (proximate drivers)...

36. Anthropogenic Driving Forces Another prim driver -- econ  Primary Drivers Change in population (growth or shrinkage) ) Change in economy (growth or shrinkage) Structural change in the economy Technological change Societal changes (e.g. Institutions, Law, Governance) Secondary Drivers Energy production Agriculture Industry Fishery Tourism Household consumption Transport Proximate Drivers Emissions to the atmosphere Emissions to the hydrosphere Land use changes Soil degradation