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Future Recovery Scenarios… from the April 26 th Presentation 1.

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Presentation on theme: "Future Recovery Scenarios… from the April 26 th Presentation 1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Future Recovery Scenarios… from the April 26 th Presentation 1

2 Re-thinking the projected population of Greater Christchurch How does the estimated 2006-2011 net migration by age for Greater Christchurch compare with that assumed in the official current tla projection series? 2

3 Re-thinking the projected population of Greater Christchurch – estimated versus assumed migration 3

4 Updating Population Projection Scenarios for Greater Christchurch 4

5 Steps toward rethinking population projections for Greater Christchurch based on the estimated 2011 population StatisticStats NZ Low Stats NZ Medium (Stats NZ) Greater Chch UDS med-high variant Stats NZ High Updated SNZ Medm 2011 base Updated UDS Med-High 2011 base 2006 Popn440,850 2010 Popn463,850 2011 Popn459,050468,850477,500478,650457,400 Pred 2006- 2011 Pop Chge 18,20028,00036,70037,80016,600 Diff from actual Pop Change -1,650-11,400-20,100-21,25000 Pred 2006- 2011 Net Migr 6,50014,50022,500 -- Est Actual 2006-2011 Net Migr 3,200 Projected change 2011- 2016 10,90022,60032,20034,50021,70030,200 Projected change 2011- 2031 23,60077,900120,100134,40074,100113,400 5


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