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Population Change in Europe Nico van Nimwegen Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute NIDI.

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Presentation on theme: "Population Change in Europe Nico van Nimwegen Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute NIDI."— Presentation transcript:

1 Population Change in Europe Nico van Nimwegen Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute NIDI

2 Key Messages Like climate change, population change has a major impact on our future: - Population Ageing - Population Diversity - Slowdown of Population Growth Demographic trends are persistent Unity and Diversity: rich variation in demographic trends in Europe

3 Europeans have smaller families Low fertility in most countries, but with fluctuations Impact of economic uncertainty/crises How to support families: work-family balance, family friendly policies.

4 Total (period) Fertility Rate,

5 Total Fertility Rate

6 Longer and Healthier lives Longevity increases both for women and men The gender gap in longevity is gradually closing but still large in some countries Healthy life expectancy increases too How to use resources of an ageing population: active ageing

7 Life expectancy, women,

8 Life Expectancy Women

9 Life expectancy, men,

10 Life Expectancy Men

11 Gender differences in life expectancy (in years), 2005

12 Europe’s population becomes more diverse Migration has become the main engine of population growth in Europe. Large fluctuations in migration flows and in the number of migrants. Managing migration flows and using the resources of migrants. Integration. Making diversity an asset

13 Impact of migration

14 Different migration experiences

15 Different numbers of migrants

16 Also in Central and Eastern Europe -Top 10

17 Foreign born and Non- nationals

18 Population Growth World population continues to grow: 7 billion today Population growth of Europe is slowing down Population decline becomes a reality Doing more with fewer people

19 Milestones of world population growth

20 Bevolkingsgroeitempo in minder en meer ontwikkelde landen, % Source: United Nations 2008, medium variant

21 Total Population Growth EU (per 1000 population)

22 Components of Population Growth EU (per 1000 population), 2006

23 Migration drives Population Growth in Europe

24 Europa, Bevolkingsgroei, NUTS2 regios, Source: Eurostat.

25 Europa, Potentiële Beroepsbevolking, NUTS2 regios,

26 Bevolkingsgroei naar gemeente (%)

27 Population ageing Ageing most advanced in Europe Population of working age becomes smaller Higher labour force participation: better use of human resources (unemployed, women, migrants, elderly) Improve skills: education, life long learning Training also needed as the work force is ageing

28 Europa, bevolking 65+, NUTS2 regios, Source: Eurostat.

29 Demographic Pressure

30 Een demografische omslag De bevolkingsexplosie van de 20e eeuw is voorbij Wereldbevolkingsgroei nog fors maar dalend Europese bevolkingsgroei gering Nederlandse bevolking groeit nog door … … maar steeds meer gebieden in Europa en Nederland krijgen te maken met bevolkingskrimp

31 Vooruitzichten (1) na de (20e) eeuw van de bevolkingsgroei is er nu de (21e) eeuw van de vergrijzing en de urbanisatie. basisoorzaken van de vergrijzing zijn structureel;lage vruchtbaarheid, langere levensduur lagere bevolkingsgroei brengt vergrijzing mee. vergrijzing is grotendeels “man made” (en een succesverhaal)

32 Vooruitzichten (2) migratie biedt geen oplossing voor de vergrijzing. einde van de bevolkingsgroei komt in steeds meer landen in zicht. bevolkingskrimp wordt de nieuwe realiteit in ieder geval in Europa en Nederland.

33 Vooruitzichten (2) migratie biedt geen oplossing voor de vergrijzing. einde van de bevolkingsgroei komt in steeds meer landen in zicht. bevolkingskrimp wordt de nieuwe realiteit in ieder geval in Europa en Nederland.

34 Bevolkingskrimp Uneven distribution of population growth: decline and growth side by side. Especially smaller municipalities are vulnerable. High density areas grow. Low density areas decline (Matthew principle).

35 Bevolkingskrimp: probeem of oplossing? Pessimist view: Doomsday scenarios. Population decline-economic decline- outflow-more decline-poverty. Optimist view: Pink cloud. Population decline, more space, better environment, less congestion (traffic jams). Reality check. Population decline adds to the challenges of population ageing.

36 Housing Number of households continues to grow, but not everywhere … Lower population pressure could help to relieve pressures on housing markets in cases of high pressure (low supply, high housing demand). Decline works positive… … but decline works negative when the pressure on the housing market is low (lots of houses, low demand). Decline leads to empty houses

37 Infrastructure and Space Decline can aggrevate the decrease in facilities. Low level of facilities can trigger further decline. Use of space: behaviour important Small is beautiful?

38 Economy Working age population will peak in 2010 at 10,1 million persons. Slow decline to 9,8 million in 2025 Higher labour force participation and extension of working life to cope with decline? Labour force participation of women, older workers, migrants? Ageing of the work force.

39 Decline and Vulnerability Decline can aggrevate vulnerability. Weaker neighbourhoods, cities, regions have difficulty of keeping their inhabitants. Can this a downward spiral be broken?

40 Coping or Fighting? Fighting decline not very successful (difficult to turn the trend around). Coping with decline (try to make the best of it) is long term issue. No generic, “one size fits all” policies Enable regional and local diversity. Flexibility in spatial (long term) policy. Decline as challenge to increase quality?

41 Decline and Population Policy? Together with population ageing population decline makes for a real demographic turnaround. Do we need a population policy? Is this feasible? Demographic solutions are limited. Most Dutch prefer population decline over population growth ( …but not in their backyard...) End of population growth? Less people, more wellbeing?


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