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Can Government Bond Futures Stand Up to LIBOR? November 7, 2002 FIA Chicago Randolf Roth, Head of Market Development and Strategy US.

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Presentation on theme: "Can Government Bond Futures Stand Up to LIBOR? November 7, 2002 FIA Chicago Randolf Roth, Head of Market Development and Strategy US."— Presentation transcript:

1 Can Government Bond Futures Stand Up to LIBOR? November 7, 2002 FIA Chicago Randolf Roth, Head of Market Development and Strategy US

2 2 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Strong growth of Eurex fixed income futures 100, , , , , , , , Contracts Average Daily Volume per Year SCHATZ (2 year)BOBL (5 year)BUND (10 year)

3 3 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Bund future most actively traded interest rate contract worldwide Q * Average Daily Volume per QuarterContracts Euribor (LIFFE) SCHATZ (2 year)BOBL (5 year)BUND (10 year)

4 4 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Why would market share shift from Bund to Euribor? Two factors have to be separated –Yield curve effects –Change in benchmark status Yield curve effects were at times the driving force in the last 18 months –Also seen on Eurex –Reasons: Exceptionally high short-term interest rate volatility Shift in Economic activity We do not see a shift in benchmark status –German government bond futures define the risk free rate in Europe –Increasing government debt –Liquidity risk much more significant than basis risk

5 5 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Volume comparison of Eurex Capital Market Products: Q1 -3, 2000 to % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1.Qrt2.Qrt Qrt1.Qrt2.Qrt Qrt1.Qrt2.Qrt Qrt Euro-Bund Euro-Bobl Euro-Schatz (Volume breakdown)

6 6 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Promising Outlook for volume growth of 10, 5 and 2 year interest rate futures Eurex capital market contracts are the benchmark for European fixed income markets and are widely used for risk management of Non- European bonds Increasing issuance activity in the European government bond markets –Current outstanding debt €2.8 trillion Future harmonization of the European government bond market Electronic futures trading will continue to support efficient and growing markets

7 7 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Attachment

8 8 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Preiskorrelation Swapnote® -/Bond-Futures und Swapsätze Geringfügig höhere Korrelation zwischen Swapnote-Future und Swapsätzen im Beobachtungszeitraum Der Vorteil des geringeren Basisrisikos der Swapnote-Kontrakte ist minimal und kann das Liquiditätsrisiko nicht kompensieren  Keine Notwendigkeit für Swaphändler Kontrakte zu unterstützen

9 9 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Development of Interest Rate Products Jan. - Sept / Jan. - Sept %+41%+23%+16%

10 10 November 5, 2002 FIA Chicago 2002, Panel on Interest Rate Futures Volume Comparison Electronically vs. Floor Traded Contracts: Jan. - Sept / Jan. - Sept *Euronext Volumen Januar-September 2002 beinhaltet Matif/Monep, Belfox und AEX Electronic Floor Euronext. Liffe Eurex CME CBOT % 34% 40% % 185% % 155% mn. contracts


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