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Five-Year Forecast Presentation Kelley Thorpe, Treasurer Presented May 5, 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Five-Year Forecast Presentation Kelley Thorpe, Treasurer Presented May 5, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Five-Year Forecast Presentation Kelley Thorpe, Treasurer Presented May 5, 2014

2 Still missing some critical and necessary information Pieces of the puzzle – Negotiations and programmatic changes Forecast is designed to be a fluid document that can be modified with changes in the economic environment Does not represent the entire financial picture – only considers the General Fund

3 Revenues: – This forecast assumes small operating revenue increase for FY15; but not beyond – Increase from ODE is planned – Decrease in property values and real estate taxes

4 Expenditures: – This forecast assumes a slight decrease in expenses All budget managers given a 2% reduction for FY15 Increase in severance due to retirements (STRS Changes) Have Included a 12% increase for health insurance for FY15 and 15% increase for outlying years

5 Fiscal Year Revenues General Property Tax (Real Estate) 27,586,034 27,406,695 27,456,695 27,561,158 27,763,566 Tangible Personal Property Tax (0) 0 0 Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid 25,792,965 27,158,516 Restricted State Grants-in-Aid 4,131,791 Property Tax Allocation 8,109,964 7,900,136 7,750,136 7,612,203 7,486,437 All Other Revenues 3,932,332 1,532,332 Total Revenues 69,553,086 68,129,469 68,029,469 67,995,999 68,072,642

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7 Fiscal Year Expenditures Personal Services 29,197,574 29,400,568 28,824,070 28,896,130 28,968,370 Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits 11,544,685 11,324,410 12,051,189 13,221,135 14,622,915 Purchased Services 23,841,580 23,742,989 24,338,409 24,792,918 25,256,518 Supplies and Materials 1,176,343 1,352,816 1,393,400 1,435,202 1,478,258 Capital Outlay 1,600, Principal-HB 264 Loans 160, , , , ,939 Interest and Fiscal Charges 77,395 84,323 75,407 66,262 56,802 Other Objects 705, , , , ,064 Total Expenditures 68,303,384 66,806,310 67,595,311 69,336,412 71,324,867

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9 Oct FY14May FY14DifferenceReason General Property Tax (Real Estate) 27,592,794 27,586,034 (6,760) Unrestricted State Grants-in-Aid 29,674,192 25,792,965 (3,881,227) Split with Restricted Restricted State Grants-in-Aid 150,000 4,131,791 3,981,791 Property Tax Allocation 8,314,033 8,109,964 (204,069) All Other Revenues 1,532,332 1,468,332 (64,000)Without Borrowing Included Total Revenues 67,263,351 67,089,086 (174,265) - Personal Services 28,997,574 29,197, ,000More retirees than predicted Retirement/Insurance Benefits 11,670,361 11,544,685 (125,676) Purchased Services 22,716,580 23,841,580 1,125,000More students to charter/community schools Supplies and Materials 1,016,870 1,176, ,473 Capital Outlay 1,600,000 - Debt Service: 219, ,975 18,274 Other Objects 705,227 - Total Expenses 66,926,313 68,303,384 1,377,071 Cash Balance 2,760,258 2,072,921 (687,337)

10 Cash Balance 2,072,9212,696,0802,430,238389,825(3,562,400) Important Puzzle Pieces: 1. In negotiations with MTA; no increases to base salary included in this forecast 2. Tomorrow’s election; if fail – will need to increase expenses for maintenance/repairs 3. Programmatic changes – know we need to do something different with alternative education due to Union Day closing – but decisions have not yet been finalized

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