Presentation on theme: "Aims and Objectives Aim: Understand the importance of current account changes. Objectives: Define current account Explain why our trade balance is important."— Presentation transcript:
Aims and Objectives Aim: Understand the importance of current account changes. Objectives: Define current account Explain why our trade balance is important Analyse changes in the current account Evaluate if a deficit matters
Starter Write a paragraph explaining the current state of the UK Current Account. £m Export of goods251,102 Import of goods343,979 Export of services170,399 Import of services115,920 Balance of trade in goods and services -38,398 Income Balance26,940 Net Transfers-13,610
UK Trade Deficit Shrinks FT Oct 2011 Article
Why is our trade balance important? Effect on the macroeconomy Exports are an injection to circular flow Multiplier effect amplifies the effect of exports Employment Levels of employment in the secondary sector rely on exports Regional Disparities Areas such as the North and Midlands, rely heavily on manufacturing employment, a fall in exports would decrease employment and cause regional disparities
Current Account Changes Discuss in groups how each of the following can affect a country’s current account: Exchange Rates Changes in AD Inflation Labour Productivity Innovation
Exchange Rates Prices of imports and exports affected, which affects consumer decisions. Changes in AD A rise in NI will result in increase in imports An increase in NI with UK trading partners will result in increased UK export demand Inflation If inflation is rising faster than trading partners, exports will fall. More goods will therefore be imported as they are cheaper! Labour Productivity Make a country more effective reducing prices of goods and services, increasing X. If trading partners more productive, then imports will rise. Innovation Will lead to new products, that will increase competitiveness of a country.
Current account surplus: shift from AD – AD1 Increase in real output and price level. If exports increase AD beyond AD2 this will be inflationary as economy pushed into a positive output gap. Increased exports benefit economy when negative output gap. But will add to inflationary pressure when in a positive output gap. Current Account AD/AS Model AS A PRICE LEVEL REAL GDP AD AD1 AD2 P2 P1 P BC
A deficit will have the reverse effect as AD will fall if demand for UK goods falls and demand for imports rises. This will contract the economy and reduce prices. Current Account AD/AS Model AS A PRICE LEVEL REAL GDP AD AD1 AD2 P2 P1 P BC
Comparative Advantage Surplus in trade in services is down to comp.adv mainly in financial services – city of London. Deficit in trade of goods is down to comp.disadvantage
The UK economy has a large deficit balance, does this actually matter? Does a deficit balance matter?
Deficit may indicate that the UK has lost competitiveness due to insufficient investment. Continuous deficits leads to withdrawals from the circular flow that will reduce employment and NI. Loss of manufacturing jobs leads to structural unemployment. Argument For
There is no problem as long as there is sufficient foreign investment in the UK to finance it. Some of the deficit may be due to imports of new capital machinery that will increase productivity and potential growth. Argument Against
The lessons the rest of the world should— and should not—take from Germany Modell Deutschland über alles