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Pianc May 2006 Development of Commodity- Driven Vessel Movements for Economic Analysis of Port Improvements PIANC 2006 Lisbon, Portugal.

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Presentation on theme: "Pianc May 2006 Development of Commodity- Driven Vessel Movements for Economic Analysis of Port Improvements PIANC 2006 Lisbon, Portugal."— Presentation transcript:

1 Pianc May 2006 Development of Commodity- Driven Vessel Movements for Economic Analysis of Port Improvements PIANC 2006 Lisbon, Portugal

2 Keith Hofseth Shana Heisey U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, Alexandria, VA, USA Richard Males, Ph.D RMM Technical Services, Inc., Cincinnati, OH USA (Presenter) Cory Rogers CDM, Carbondale, IL, USA

3 Pianc May 2006 Flood Damage Reduction Navigation Ecosystem Restoration Hurricane Protection CORPS OF ENGINEERS

4 Pianc May 2006 Cost Justification Required For Projects  Benefit-Cost Analysis ! Without Project costs and benefits ! With Project costs and benefits Life Cycle Analysis ! 50 years into the future ! Implies forecasting Risk and Uncertainty  IWR Develops Tools For Planning In This Context Basic Data Development Data Analysis and Visualization Tools Monte Carlo Simulation Models Multiple Criterion Decision Aids Cost Effectiveness Analysis

5 Pianc May 2006 Deep-Draft Navigation Tools  Evolving set of statistical, forecasting, and simulation tools for analysis of vessel movement in harbors Planning Level, not Operational  Simulate impacts of alternative harbor improvements: Potential reductions in vessel delays Potential increases in loading, vessel capacity  Develop and analyze forecasts of future fleet movements, based on commodity forecasts  Analyze existing vessel movements

6 Pianc May 2006 Navigation Planning Tool Suite  HarborSym Monte Carlo Port Simulation  Vessel Call Database  Vessel Call Analyzer  Commodity-Driven Forecast Tool Microsoft Access Data Base C++ Computational Kernels R Statistical Software Graphical User Interface Transparency Non-Proprietary Tools

7 Pianc May 2006 HarborSym  Planning-Level Model Single Port Focus on water-side, not land-side  Data-Driven Port layout Vessel Calls Speeds Transit Rules  Vessel movements / interactions within harbor  Outputs Times in system (travel, docking, etc.) Delay times

8 Pianc May 2006 CARGO TUG CRUISE TANKER HarborSym Monte Carlo Simulation Model

9 Pianc May 2006 Network builder Data entry tables Data explorer Network Graphical User Interface

10 Pianc May 2006 Vessel Call Data Base  Unique Vessels Vessel class Physical characteristics  Vessel Call Arrival Time / Draft  Dock Visits  Commodity Transfers Quantity / Commodity Category Import/Export Microsoft Access Relational Data Base Import From Excel

11 Pianc May 2006 Vessel Call Database Structure

12 Pianc May 2006 Cruise Ship - multiple vessel calls ArrivalDateExportQuantityImportQuantity 1/4/2001 7:00:00 AM /8/2001 7:00:00 AM /13/2001 6:25:00 AM /18/2001 6:25:00 AM /22/2001 6:45:00 AM /27/2001 6:45:00 AM /1/ :50:00 PM /5/2001 6:45:00 AM /10/2001 6:25:00 AM /15/2001 5:50:00 AM /24/2001 6:00:00 AM /1/2001 5:35:00 AM /5/2001 5:50:00 AM

13 Pianc May 2006 Alternate Views Possible  Vessel Call Time of arrival at port, where vessel goes, commodities transferred  Vessel Multiple calls of an individual vessel at port  Dock Stream of commodity transfers over time at each dock  Commodity Flow Time-based flow of commodities to port  Fleet Set of Vessels serving port

14 Pianc May 2006 Vessel Call Analyzer  Examine a Vessel Call Database  Extract statistics useful for: simulation forecasting generation of synthetic vessel calls

15 Pianc May 2006 Flow of Commodity To Port / Docks

16 Pianc May 2006 Commodity-Driven Forecast Tool  Assist in developing balanced / rational fleet and commodity forecasts  Develop synthetic vessel calls for HarborSym  Inputs Commodity / Fleet / Constraints  Methodology Translate Annual Commodity Forecast to Vessel Calls Use up fleet resource subject to constraints  Outputs  Forecast Satisfaction / Detailed Calls

17 Pianc May 2006 Inputs Commodity Forecast By Dock, Commodity, Import/Export Fleet Specification Classes Potential Calls / Priority Statistical Description of Physical Characteristics Loading Factor Distribution By Class/Commodity Constraints Dock Draft Limitations Vessel Classes / Commodities What classes carry a commodity Vessel Classes / Docks What classes can call at dock

18 Commodity Category Dock Import Quantity Export Quantity Liquid BulkStPetersburg08031 Liquid BulkPort Manatee Liquid BulkPort Tampa Liquid BulkRattlesnake0355 Liquid BulkBig Bend06956 Liquid BulkPort Sutton Liquid BulkEast Bay Liquid BulkHills Cut D Liquid BulkSparkman Liquid BulkYbor Dry BulkPort Manatee Dry BulkAlafia Dry BulkBig Bend Dry BulkPort Sutton Commodity Forecast At Dock

19 Fleet Specification Vessel Class Allocation Priority Maximum Visits BLKC1155 BLKC21132 BLKC3161 CHEM11118 CHEM2180 CHEM31107 CHEM411 GCRR11138 Vessel Class Regression Type InterceptSlope BLKC1log(Beam)~log(Capacity) BLKC1log(LOA)~log(Capacity) BLKC1log(DesignDraft)~log(Capa city) BLKC2log(Beam)~log(Capacity) BLKC2log(LOA)~log(Capacity) BLKC2log(DesignDraft)~log(Capa city)

20 Constraints DockClass Chevron and MotivaCHEM3 Chevron and MotivaBLKC1 Chevron and MotivaGCRR3 Chevron and MotivaOIL1 Chevron and MotivaOIL2 Chevron and MotivaOIL3 Chevron and MotivaOIL4 DuPontOIL2 DuPontOIL4 DuPontTNKB1 DuPontOIL3 DuPont and Sun MarineCHEM2 DuPont and Sun MarineOIL4 DuPont and Sun MarineOIL5 DuPont and Sun MarineTNKB1 DuPont and Sun MarineTNKB2 Vessel Class Commodity BLKC1Petroleum Products BLKC1Grain BLKC1Chemicals BLKC1Wood BLKC1Stone BLKC1Iron Ore BLKC1Machinery BLKC2Petroleum Products BLKC2Grain BLKC2Chemicals BLKC2Wood BLKC2Iron Ore BLKC2Machinery Dock Limiting Depth Offshore Marine/LNG39.5 Houston Marine/LNG39.5 Chevron and Motiva39.5 Premcor39.5

21 Pianc May 2006 Methodology  Generate set of distinct vessels based on fleet specification  Loop through commodity demands Find a vessel that can carry the commodity at the dock (subject to constraints) Load it to maximum, subject to loading factor and depth limitation at dock Reduce commodity demand at dock by amount loaded Remove vessel from available set Next demand  Stop when: no more suitable vessels available or all forecasts satisfied  Assign trip times  Report results / store in database

22 Pianc May 2006 Outputs  Logical Consistency Over-constrained?  Satisfied / Unsatisfied Forecasts  Fleet Utilization  Synthetic Vessel Call Data Base

23 CommodityDock I/E QuantityAllocatedDeficit % Defict # Calls Crude11 Exxon Mobil I %122 Crude7 Fina OilI %122 Crude3 Chevron Motiv I %109 Petroleum Products 5 Lone StarI %2 Petroleum Products 4 PremcorE %6 ArrivalDockCodeCommodity Import Quantity Export Quantity Entry Draft Name 1/4/2001 5:33:31 AM6 DuPontCrude OT2000 1/4/2001 1:07:14 PM8 Union OilCrude OT4006 1/4/2001 6:09:29 PM3 Chevron Motiv Crude OT1000 2/28/ :28:26 AM8 Union OilPetroleum Products CT1019 3/5/ :22:00 AM11 Exxon MobilPetroleum Products BC1009 3/6/2001 5:37:56 AM3 Chevron Motiv Petroleum Products GC2009 Forecast Tool Outputs - Forecast Satisfaction / Vessel Movements

24 Pianc May 2006 Output Synthetic Vessel Call Database

25 Pianc May 2006  Each vessel call carries single commodity to/from a single dock  Each vessel call is either import/export  Yearly basis (no seasonality)  No Tide  Statistical method of generating vessel characteristics  Assume vessels exporting from port arrive at minimum draft  Constant inter-arrival time for a class of vessels Current Simplifying Assumptions

26 Pianc May 2006 Summary  Suite of tools to assist planners in studies of harbor improvements Data-Driven Transparent Non-Proprietary  Status HarborSym - available, beta test, used in projects Vessel Analyzer - late stage development Forecast Module - in testing  For more information: Keith Hofseth,


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