Presentation on theme: "Basic Theories of the Balance of Payments"— Presentation transcript:
1Basic Theories of the Balance of Payments Three Approaches
2Three Approaches The Elasticities Approach to the Balance of Trade The Absorption Approach to the Balance of TradeThe Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payment (MABOP)
3The Elasticities Approach to BOT d = elasticity of demand= the responsiveness of quantitydemanded to changes in priced = (%Qd)/(%P)which is usually negative
4Elasticities | d | > 1 the demand is elastic | d | < 1 the demand is inelasticIf the demand is elastic, the 1% rise in price leads to more than 1% decline in quantity demanded.If the demand is inelastic, the 1% rise in price leads to less than 1% decline in quantity demanded.
5Devaluation and BOTDoes the devaluation of a currency improve the country’s balance of trade?Consider EPs/$ = the Mexican peso price of the dollar
6Devaluation and BOT (cont’d) (1) If the demand curve for the dollar slopes downward and the supply curve of the dollar slopes upward, then the devaluation of the peso leads to an excess supply of the dollar, which causes the Mexican trade deficit to decrease.
7Devaluation and BOT(2) If the demand curve for the dollar is steep and the supply curve of the dollar is negatively sloped, then the devaluation of the peso leads to an excess demand for the dollar, which causes the Mexican trade deficit to increase.
8Devaluation and BOT (cont’d) (1): stable FX market equilibrium(2): unstable FX market equilibriumThe case (2) could occur when Mexican demand for US imports and US demand for Mexican exports are both very inelastic.The greater the elasticities of both country’s demand for the other country’s goods, the greater the improvement in Mexico trade balance after a peso devaluation.
9Devaluation and BOTThe condition that guarantees the case (1) is called Marshall-Lerner Condition.
10J Curve EffectAfter the devaluation, it is often observed that the trade balance initially deteriorates for a while before getting improved.
11Elasticities and J-Curves Why do we have a J-Curve?The initial demands tend to be inelastic.Suppose Mexico imports good X from the US and exports good Y to the US.Devaluation Eps/$ PXPs & PY$ QXd & QYd
12Elasticities and J-Curves But if Mexican demand for X is inelastic, the % decrease in QXd would be smaller than the % increase in PXPs so that Imports = PXPs QXd would increase.Further, if US demand for Y is inelastic, the % increase in QYd would be smaller than the % decline in PY$ so that Exports = PY$ QYd would fall.
13Pass ThroughDevaluation Import prices in the home country and export prices in foreign countries.But prices do not adjust instantaneously.Persistent BOP deficit devaluation Home demand for imports and foreign demand for exports an improvement in BOP in the L-R
14Pass-through Analysis How do prices adjust to exchange rate changes in the S-R?Differences in the pass-through effect across countries Producers adjust profit marginsExample: When the yen appreciated against the dollar substantially during late 1980s, Japanese auto-makers limited the pass-through of higher prices by reducing the profit margins on their products.
15Pass-though analysis (cont’d) In general,Depreciation of the dollar Foreign sellers cut their profit marginsAppreciation of the dollar Foreign sellers increase their profit margins
16Absorption Approach to BOT Recall the national income identity:Y = C + I + G + (X – M)SoY – A = X – Mwhere A = C + I + G is the total domestic spending or absorption.
17Absorption approach to BOP (cont’d) If Y > A, then X – M > 0 or BOT > 0.If Y < A, then X – M < 0 or BOT < 0.Does devaluation always improve BOT?Recall: If Y = Y* Full employment level of output, then all resources are already employed and hence, X – M needs A .If Y < Y*, then X – M obtains through increasing Y with A unchanged, i.e. by producing more to sell to foreigners.
18Absorption approach So, when Y < Y*, devaluation would improve BOT. But when Y > Y*, devaluation would increase X – M but create inflation.
19Monetary Approach to BOP RecallCurrent accountNon-reserve capital accountOfficial reserve account moneysupply
20Fed’s Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities Domestic Credit Currency (Treasury securities, (Fed reserve notesDiscount loans, etc ) outstanding) International Bank reservesreserves(Gold, SDR, other foreigncurrencies denominateddeposits and bonds)
21Monetary base DC + IR = CU + R MB (1) where DC = domestic credit IR = international reservesCU = currencyR = bank reservesMB = monetary base
22FX intervention againSuppose the Fed sells $1 billion of its foreign assets in exchange for $1 billion of US currency.Fed’s balance sheetAssets LiabilitiesForeign assets -$1 billion Currency -$1 billionSo, MB by $1 billion.
23Money Supply Recall: MS = m•MB (2) where m = money multiplier M = CU + Dwhere D = depositsMB = CU + RSo, M/MB = (CU + D)/(CU + R)= (1 + c)/(c + r) mwhere c = currency-deposit ratior = reserve ratio
24Money supply and Money demand Substituting (2) in (1), we obtainMS = m (DC + IR) (3)Consider Money demand function:Md = k•P•L (4)where P = price level at home and L is the liquidity preference function, which depends on income and the interest rate. k is a constant.
25PPP again Now assume PPP P = E•P* (5) where E = home currency price of theforeign currencyP* = price level in the foreign countrySubstituting (5) into (4), we haveMd = k•E•P*•L (6)
26Monetary equilibrium In equilibrium, Md = MS. So, from (3) and (6), we havek•E•P*•L = m (DC + IR)In terms of “% changes” (or growth rates),E^ + P*^ + L^ = w•DC^ + (1-w)•IR^where k^ = m^ =0 because they are constants. w = DC/(DC + IR).
30Managed floatAlthough exchange rates are market determined in principle, central banks intervene at times to peg the rates at some desired level.When MS or Md changes, the central bank can choose either E^ or IR^ to adjust.
31Implication of PPP Recall PPP again: P = EP*. With a fixed ex rate, E^ = 0, soP^ = P*^In other words, when the foreign price level is increasing rapidly, then the home price must follow if we are to maintain the fixed E. Imported Inflation
32Implication of PPP (cont’d) With flexible rates, E is free to vary so that even when P*^ > 0, P^ can be zero by letting E^ = - P*^, or letting the home currency to appreciate by the same amount as the foreign inflation rate.
33Views based on MABOPBOP disequilibria are essentially monetary phenomena.Devaluation is a substitute for reducing the growth of domestic credit.Appreciation is a substitute for increasing domestic credit growth.