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Global Impacts: Measuring the Impact of UK Consumption on Biodiversity Overseas Chris West, Elena Dawkins, Simon Croft, David Raffaelli, William Sheate.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Impacts: Measuring the Impact of UK Consumption on Biodiversity Overseas Chris West, Elena Dawkins, Simon Croft, David Raffaelli, William Sheate."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Impacts: Measuring the Impact of UK Consumption on Biodiversity Overseas Chris West, Elena Dawkins, Simon Croft, David Raffaelli, William Sheate 6th December 2012

2 Outline of Global Impacts Session TimeActivity 11.15 Presentation: An introduction to preliminary work on developing a potential Global Impacts methodology 11.30 Questions related to the presentation 11.45Discussion: Limitations and Assumptions of the methodology 12.25Discussion: Moving from prototype to indicator 12.55 Discussion: Targets 13.15?Close, and lunch

3 Defra Project Background Project Duration: Nov 2011 – March 2013 The Issue – Growing consumption, increasing reliance on imports – Complex supply chains – Indirect and direct impacts of consumption – Overseas biodiversity impacts Project Aim – provide a database-driven methodology for linking UK imports to geographically-defined impacts on biodiversity

4 StudyProducts coveredMethod AppliedBiodiversity Indicator(s) Trends in EU virtual land flows: EU agricultural land use through international trade, Van Sleen (2009) Wheat case study Material flow analysis with a multi-criteria assessment of impacts Genetic diversity Species diversity Overall environmental utility Dutch Trade and Biodiversity, Kamphuis et al. (2011) Soya, palm oil and tropical timber products Trade flow analysis, combined with land area production data. Relative species richness Relative species richness of original species Global Biodiversity Database, Scott Wilson (2007) Soya, lumber palm oil, cotton, shrimps and wine Trade flow analysis. Identification of ecoregions (WWF) in the country of production, threats to ecoregion. Ecoregion land area apportioned by import demand The global biodiversity footprint of UK biofuel consumption, JNCC (2009) BiofuelsTrade data; source countries and crops, estimate land use requirement and identify the ecosystems under pressure Land use matched to region Existing studies

5 Study Products covered Method AppliedBiodiversity Indicator The global land use impact of the United Kingdom’s biomass consumption, JNCC (2011) Part I Biomass Material flow data (e.g. domestic material consumption) and biomass import data. Land required to supply products, with crop yields and crop water requirements. Matched land area requirements of imports to Biogeographical realms, biomes and specific countries UK National Ecosystem Assessment Technical Report. Chapter 21: UK Dependence on non-UK Ecosystem Services, UNEP-WCMC (2011) Biomass Import data from converted to land area requirements using crop yields and matched to the Biogeographical Realms. MFA used to track the history of biomass consumption in the UK. Matched land area requirements of imports to Biogeographical realms, biomes and specific countries Lenzen et al. (2012) MRIO and biodiversity threats Those that ‘threaten’ species Multi-regional input-output model linked to listed ‘threats’ within the IUCN Red List. IUCN Red List Species under threat

6 Our approach: – Understanding consumption: Measuring trade and supply chains Linking production abroad with imports to the UK – Understanding potential biodiversity impacts: Selecting indicators of biodiversity Linking indicators to production abroad Defra Project Background

7 Trade information: Import, export data exists from HMRC, FAO, UN, Eurostat, OECD... – Physical – Financial Input-Output (IO) tables map interactions between industry throughout the whole economy. They are necessary to measure indirect/embedded materials within products. They capture the full supply chains of goods. We selected GTAP data based on the criteria: – Availability (current and likely future) – Number of regions covered vs no. of sectors covered – Regularly updated – New version just released Understanding Trade and Consumption

8 GTAP/MRIO approach: Financial flows between 129 countries (multi-regional), across 57 sectors. Interactions between economic sectors (all inputs and outputs of whole economy) mapped out in tables (input- output). Limitations: – Limited sector resolution – Released every 4 years (latest version has 2004 and 2007 data) – Financial flows not physical quantities MRIO data

9 Linking to detailed production data FAO: – Agriculture stats: yield, area harvested, production and trade flows for 236 Countries and over 600 products – ForeSTAT: production, import, export for wood product groups – FishSTAT: total capture, aquaculture, commodities, production and trade This is more detailed than the financial data, but lacks information about full supply chains. We need a method to link detailed product data to the full supply- chain in input-output models…

10 Diagram of MRIO physical model adapted from: Brad R. Ewing, Troy R. Hawkins, Thomas O. Wiedmann, Alessandro Galli, A. Ertug Ercin, Jan Weinzettel, Kjartan Steen-Olsen, Integrating ecological and water footprint accounting in a multi-regional input–output framework, Ecological Indicators, Volume 23, December 2012,

11 Linking production data to MRIO Method 1: Allocate physical production of each product and country within FAO to an equivalent producing sector and region within GTAP – Relies solely on financial MRIO data to model trade in commodities between sectors Method 2: Allocate physical production to importing regions in GTAP – Hybrid approach; requires harmonisation of datasets and method for dealing with re-exports in the physical data Method 3: Allocate physical production to regions and sectors in GTAP – Retains product detail to greatest extent but requires seed and feed data

12 UK Demand for products from: Product demanded: Total embedded Brazilian land area used for soybean production UKFood products nec184,555 UKTrade34,198 UK Beverages and tobacco products29,981 UK Public Administration Defense Education Health29,697 UK Vegetable oils and fats22,500 ChinaWearing apparel10,715 Brazil Vegetable oils and fats10,146 FAO Trade Data Exports of soybeans to UK What it tells you: Exports of raw materials/commodities to a country. What it doesn’t tell you: Where the final/processed products end up, and whether they are re-exported Any ‘hidden’ impacts embedded in products e.g. soya embedded in meat products DEFRA MODEL UK Demand for products with ‘embedded’ soybeans What it tells you: Impacts (land associated with soybean production in this case) associated with demand for any products (including ‘hidden’ land embedded in products). CountryTonnes Brazil619000 United States of America27908 Ireland19539 Belgium14560 Ukraine10418 Netherlands10097 Italy6806 Argentina5063 China4485

13 Environmental ‘extensions’ can be added to the production data: – From FAO we have details on yields by country and can therefore calculate land requirements – We also have data on water consumption and pollution (in the form of form of green, blue, and grey water – Some fertiliser data is available – IUCN RedList, Important Bird Area databases contain information about species threats – Other regional information about endemism, habitat types etc. These extensions can be viewed in isolation or potentially combined. Linking production quantity to impact

14 Sectors linked to physical production and land use data – sector level (e.g. fruit and veg, not mangos) Physical production linked to environmental drivers of biodiversity loss and indicators

15 Method Summary Defra model enables a detailed look at products and land use/ water/ biodiversity impacts etc. of those products. Benefits of Defra Model: – Retains product-level detail of FAO. Combines FAO physical data with MRIO financial flow data. – Calculates all of the ‘hidden’/embedded impacts in products that might be missed in just direct import/export data of the actual commodity (e.g. captures soya imported via meat products). – Assesses impacts associated with the final consumption of products, compared to FAO trade data where commodities are likely to go into industry (rather than final consumers) and be processed and either consumed or re-exported elsewhere. Defra model: – Still under development, builds on work from OPEN-EU project, adds additional datasets and indicators for anything associated with production of commodities. – Initial results are starting to become available for UK demand….

16 The Hybrid-MRIO model still only contains information to country-level. To validate the model, and provide further regionally-specific information we are conducting case studies on Brazilian soybeans and shrimps (probably from Asia). It is intended that this approach can be used to drill-down into potential impact ‘hotspots’ inferred in the model. Case Studies and Knowledge Base

17 The following results are (very!) preliminary and therefore only for illustration: – Based on Method 1 (allocating products from FAO to producing sectors in GTAP). – Available for only a handful of commodities at present. – Some outstanding data issues (e.g. with China data in FAO). – Biodiversity extensions are undergoing further work. Preliminary results

18 ‘Raw’ data from FAO shows direct imports of soybeans into the UK by exporting country: Running the data through the hybrid-MRIO model gives us this: Soybean consumption by the UK (2007)

19 We can also look at how demand for different sectors contributes to this production: Soybean consumption by the UK (2007)

20 We can also look at how demand for different sectors contributes to this production: Beyond Production: Top Ten: Seed cotton consumption by the UK (2007) Country Production (tonnes) Production Rank Land Use (ha) Land Use Rank Blue Water (m3) Blue Water Rank Grey Water (m3) Grey Water Rank Redlist Species IBAs (A1) India 390,124 1 266,967 1 728,122,607 13765524081 1210 Pakistan 214,580 2 115,439 2 462,589,208 21525031262 170 United States of America 164,800 3 68,860 4 148,839,426 5351812973 562 Uzbekistan 136,869 4 53,359 5 457,217,578 3113752 1133 Turkmenistan 34,983 5 23,672 7 166,933,847 4386148 826 Brazil 31,314 6 8,578 12 557,141 29188933964 9919 Greece 16,153 7 5,637 13 19,151,158 110116 120 Tajikistan 15,462 8 9,293 10 59,604,994 639873818 9 United Republic of Tanzania 13,338 9 29,911 6 5,303,360 1587639010 12015 Australia 12,623 10 2,630 27 23,057,790 940198717 3964

21 Beyond Production: Seed cotton consumption by the UK (2007)

22 By SEI: – JNCC/SNH project on material flow analysis for Scottish Biomass and links to biodiversity impacts – WWF European Policy Office: EU Policy and consumption-related impacts on WWF Priority Areas for conservation (feasibility study) By others: – Manfred Lenzen’s group in Australia – WWF China Related ongoing and future work

23 Thank you!

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