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Research project on the impact of Anti- Dumping investigations on UK business. Final Report Annex 2 Eurostat Data URN 12/1021AN.

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Presentation on theme: "Research project on the impact of Anti- Dumping investigations on UK business. Final Report Annex 2 Eurostat Data URN 12/1021AN."— Presentation transcript:

1 Research project on the impact of Anti- Dumping investigations on UK business. Final Report Annex 2 Eurostat Data URN 12/1021AN

2 Aluminium Foil (large) Total imports decreased around time of initiation (July 2008) But no apparent substitution away from investigated imports, so perhaps not related to AD. Provisional measures – dramatic fall in investigated imports. Fall in overall imports (slide 3) and substitution away from investigated imports (slide 5). This trend continued at definitive stage. In 2 years following the measure, there has been an increase in imports and a switch towards the investigated imports. However, investigated imports are still well below pre-investigation levels of 2008. Increase could reflect increased capacity of those with lower rates of duty (duty ranged from 6.4% to 30%) and/or increase of imports under the CN code that are not product concerned. Survey respondent claimed that once provisional duty adopted it was no longer viable to import the investigated product. This respondent switched purchases to EU which would explain why total imports fell. Same survey respondent said that imports of finished (smaller) rolls increased (not subject to duty) and they were unable to compete. This is confirmed in slides 6-10. 2Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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6 Aluminium Foil (large) 6Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

7 Aluminium Foil (large) 7Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

8 Aluminium Foil (small rolls) Investigation only initiated December 2011 so effect of this investigation still not evident Dramatic increase in imports starts January 2009 (large rolls investigation initiated July 2008 and provisional ADD in April 2009). Increase has continued into 2010 and 2011. Highlights a problem of ADD for downstream industries (in this case, a new investigation has been initiated on request of downstream industry). 8Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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11 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data11

12 Aluminium Foil (small rolls) 12Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

13 Aluminium Foil (small rolls) 13Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

14 Aluminium Road Wheels Total imports decreased around initiation but this appears unrelated to AD because investigated imports did not decrease. Investigated imports have continued to increase after adoption of ADD. Fall in investigated imports share in 2010 and 2011 but this is only because of increase in other imports following decrease in 2009. Survey respondent said that there was no decrease in imports because EU industry was not able to supply. Respondent also said that it is not easy to substitute to other import sources. 14Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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17 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data17

18 Aluminium Road Wheels 18Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

19 Aluminium Road Wheels 19Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

20 Ceramic Tiles Initiation – monthly variations but no discernible decrease in investigated imports. Provisional – modest decrease in investigated imports. Some possible substitution away from investigated imports as evidence suggests % share has fallen in second half 2011 (slides 19-20). Survey respondents presented mixed picture of a) switched purchases to other countries b) continued purchasing from China. Consistent with Eurostat evidence. 20Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

21 21Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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23 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data23

24 Ceramic Tiles 24Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

25 Ceramic Tiles 25Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

26 Coated Fine Paper Initiation – some drop in investigated imports appears to have occurred after initiation but some variation (i.e. increased again for couple of months). At provisional measures, big drop in China imports to relatively low levels and stayed low after definitive ADD. Also drop in total imports. Survey participant said that Chinese imports had disappeared from the market. Also raised point that other factors affect demand for paper significantly e.g. switch to electronic media and biomass. 26Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

27 27Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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29 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data29

30 Coated Fine Paper 30Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

31 Coated Fine Paper 31Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

32 Fatty Alcohol Initiation – no impact on investigated imports but appears to be some increase in other imports. Provisional duties – dramatic drop in investigated imports and remained lower at definitive. Some switch to other imports evident. Survey participants presented mixed evidence. One confirmed shift to other sources but difficult to distinguish from other factors. Another claimed that there was no room to substitute and they continued to import the same quantities. Conflicts with Eurostat data though the ability of downstream users to substitute may vary between different uses. 32Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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35 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data35

36 Fatty Alcohol 36Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

37 Fatty Alcohol 37Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

38 Glass fibres (continuous filament) Initiation – no impact initially, then large increase in investigated imports prior to adoption of provisional ADD. Provisional ADD – large decrease in investigated imports but this was because of stockpiling surge prior to measures. Definitive – imports appear to be returning to similar level pre-investigation. Survey participants – importing the same quantities. Would have been impact at provisional duty of 43%. But reduced to 13.7% in definitive. Stockpiling meant that high duty had no impact. Negative impact on cashflow caused by stockpiling. 38Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

39 39Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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41 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data41

42 Glass fibres (continuous filament) 42Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

43 Glass fibres (continuous filament) 43Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

44 Glass fibres (open mesh fabrics) Initiation – no impact Provisional – Investigated imports fell significantly and remained low after definitive. Some decrease in overall imports but appears to be some switching to other import sources. Survey participant – no change in volume import because product had been excluded. 44Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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47 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data47

48 Glass fibres (open mesh fabrics) 48Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

49 Glass fibres (open mesh fabrics) 49Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

50 Melamine Investigated imports fell prior to initiation which must be unrelated to ADD (unless they decreased on rumours?) Investigated imports fell further after provisional duties and stayed at low levels following definitive. Clear switch to other imports (investigated imports went from 60% of imports in 2008 to 3% in 2011). Survey participants said that there was no change in the level of imports and no substitution to other sources. This clearly conflicts with the evidence from Eurostat. Perhaps reflects UK perspective or other specific circumstances. 50Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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53 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data53

54 Melamine 54Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

55 Melamine 55Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

56 PET Initiation – no initial impact. Investigation terminated with no ADD end 2011. Appears to be a fall in investigated imports in last few months of 2011. ADD on PET from other countries – these suppliers emerged from very low previous levels. Suggests strong substitution effect. Survey participants suggested that a) imports fell and b) there was a substitution effect. Seems to conflict with evidence but there are several cases/reviews involving this product. And participants did say that other significant factors are affecting the market. Also, of course, anecdotal evidence from individual companies may not be inconsistent with aggregate data across 27 Member States. 56Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

57 57Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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59 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data59

60 PET 60Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

61 PET 61Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

62 Steel Fasteners Initiation – no impact. No provisional measures. Definitive measures – dramatic fall in investigated imports to low levels. Big substitution towards other imports. Survey participant said that imports stopped because of very high ADD (up to 85%). Had to buy from elsewhere, thus strong substitution. 62Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

63 63Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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65 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data65

66 Steel Fasteners 66Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

67 Steel Fasteners 67Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

68 Vinyl Acetate No impact on initiation. Provisional measures may have induced some reduction in investigated imports and some substitution towards other imports. Investigation terminated with no measures Jan 2012. Too early to see effect in Eurostat. Survey participants not aware of any reduction but one said there may have been some switching to other sources. 68Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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71 Annex 3 - Eurostat Data71

72 Vinyl Acetate 72Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

73 Vinyl Acetate 73Annex 3 - Eurostat Data

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