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Lecture 16 chi-square test (continued) Suppose 160 pairs of consecutive nucleotides are selected at random. Are data compatible with the independent occurrence assumption?

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ATGC A1510137 T1013710 G C512108

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Independence implies joint probability equals product of marginal probabilities Let P(first nucleotide = A)= P A1 P(first nucleotide = T)= P T1 and so on Let P (second nucleotide = A)= P A2 P(second nucleotide = T)= P T2 and so on P(AA)= P A1 P A2 P(AT) = P A1 P T2 We do not assume P A1 = P A2 and so on

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ATGC A15 (11.25) 10 (12.66) 13 (11.25) 7 (9.84) T10 (10)13 (11.25) 7 (10)10 (8.75) G10 (10)10 (11.25) 10 (10)10 (8.75) C5 (8.75)12 (9.84)10 (8.75) 8 (7.66) Expected value in ( ) ; df = (# of rows -1)(# of columns -1) Pearson’s chi-square statistic= 166.8 > 27.88. P-value<.001

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Simple or composite hypothesis Simple : parameters are completely specified Composite : parameters are not specified and have to be estimated from the data Loss of 1 degree of freedom per parameter estimated Number of parameters estimated = (# of rows -1)+ (# of columns -1) So the df for chi-square test is #of cells -1 - (#of rows -1) - (# of columns -1) = (#of row -1)(#of col -1) Test of independence in a contingency table

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ChinaHong Kong Singapo re Canadaothers cases33031557199344243 death148138232111 Df = 1 times 4 = 4; but wait, convert to death - alive table first Are SARS death rates independent of countries ? Data from LA -times, as of Monday 5.pm. ( Wednesday, from April 30, 2003)

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China death148 (199.5 ) 138 (94) 23 (12) 21 (20.8) 11 (14.7) alive3155 (3103. 5) 1419 (1463) 176 (187) 323 (323.2 ) 232 (228.3 ) 5305 341 total 3303 1557 199 344 243 5646 Pearson’s Chi-square statistic =47.67 > 18.47; P-value<.001, reject null hypothesis, data incompatible with independence assumption d.f. = 4

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