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Oil 2014: The good, the bad and the ugly Carl Larry President, Oil Outlooks and Opinions.

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Presentation on theme: "Oil 2014: The good, the bad and the ugly Carl Larry President, Oil Outlooks and Opinions."— Presentation transcript:

1 Oil 2014: The good, the bad and the ugly Carl Larry President, Oil Outlooks and Opinions

2 Who, What, Why 15 years: ABN, Barlcays, Citi, Credit Suisse President of Oil Outlooks and Opinions Second City Chicago 1996

3 US economy is “better-er” 2009 – WTI average price $62.09 2013 – WTI average price $98.22 2009 – US Unemployment 10.0% 2013 – US Unemployment 7.3% 3 for 3 (1949-52, 1975-78, 1982-85)

4 The tortoise kinda wins

5 Stronger

6 Better

7 Faster

8 OPEC why? Missed call Saudis 10.2M b/d (9.6M 2008) UAE 2.8M (2.5M) Kuwait 2.8M (2.6M) More is less Running out of capacity and time

9 Give to receive The “other” Keystone Pipeline expansion – Cushing to Nederland (700-800K b/d) Seaway expansion 2014 (800K b/d) WTI/Brent – it’s all about the Benjamins

10 All hail shale

11 Exporting the imports 2013 on pace for 3.4M b/d Crude only 56K b/d Estimated revenue: $780M Import diff – Crude 2007 11M – 2013 8.6M ($230M/d) – Products 2007 3.5M – 2013 2.0M ($4.5M)

12 Faster

13 Run from RINs

14 RINs run, gas stumbles

15 Dodd Frank dood Less banks Less Funds More individual investors More physical trade Algorithmic trade

16 What could go wrong? Egypt Syria Iran/Israel Nigeria Venezuela/Latin America

17 Grower not a show-er WTI 2009 $62 to 2013 $98 Brent is a benchmark of growth Japan back again? EU recovery without refineries? Lat Am letdown post World Cup, Olympics?

18 Get to it already… WTI 2014 – 2009-2010 +$16 (avg $70.00) – 2011-2013 +$3 ($95.50) – 2014 $102 Brent – 2014 $110 Gasoline (RBOB) – $2.9700 ULSD (HO) – $3.0200

19 All statistical information resourced by: EIA ( Disclaimer: We offer a commentary and view on the market. In no way do we trade upon our information. All client contact is strictly confidential, though we reserve the right to talk about market movements in general terms. These terms may include the verbiage if such, “funds”, “trading shop”, “Majors”, “Producers”, “Banks” and other similar institutions. Names of such parties in the markets shall not be used in any commentary regarding market trading or positions. We are not held responsible for trades made upon views and opinions put forth in this commentary or in personal appearances. The commentary is another available tool to help form one’s won trading opinion and their actions based on those opinions lie solely with that person Trading and hedging are risky operations. In no way should one base trades or hedging based solely on information from within this commentary or from a presentation. We are an editorial research commentary that follows market fundamentals, technical signals and market trends. We take no responsibility for profits or losses for our opinions. All publications are protected by US and International copyright laws. All rights reserved. The commentary is the sole property of Oil Outlooks and Opinions llc. Any reproduction of said commentary, use of name or information proprietary to the commentary shall be subject to legal action, revocation of all services and possible forfeiture of all fees. The use of the services of Oil Opinions and Outlooks LLC are for customers only and all internal and external research is considered to be derived from reliable sources. Disclaimer information

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