A (somewhat cautious) estimation The practical and strategic assessments likely to be carried out by the terrorist make it probably that conventional explosives will remain weapons of choice for most terrorist groups. The exceptions are groups motivated by apocalyptic beliefs and have cult-like characteristics. The global jihad fits into this category.
Terrorism as Strategy: Is Terrorism the Peacock's Tail? An institutional/evolutionary view u We tend to look at terror organizations primarily in terms of their goals and grievances. However, to understand them properly, we need to change our viewpoint to an institutional one. u Why? Because a terror organization is, first and foremost, an organization. History has shown that terror organizations that do not devote attention to their own survival do not, in fact, survive. This is analogous to biological evolution, where “ success ” doesn't necessarily mean being the fastest, smartest, or “ best ” but only producing viable offspring. The peacock with the showiest tail “ wins ”, as long as he can fly a little.