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Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim

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Presentation on theme: "Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim"— Presentation transcript:

1 Energy and Economy Energy Modelling Lab. Department of Energy Studies, Energy Systems Division, Ajou University Prof. Suduk Kim suduk@ajou.ac.kr

2 CHP continued… How Fuel Cells Work?  How electrolysis works How electrolysis works  How Fuel Cells Work (1) How Fuel Cells Work (1)

3 Advantages of Direct FuelCell ® (DFC ® ) stationary power plants FuelCell Energy’s DFC power plants offer numerous advantages over conventional and alternative power generation sources:  Ultra-clean due to their virtual absence of pollutants which supports sustainability goals, facilitates clean air permitting during installation, and benefits public health throughout the lifecycle of the power plantabsence of pollutants  Economical because high efficiency reduces fuel costshigh efficiency  Reliable baseload power provides continuous electricity and heat around-the-clock Reliable baseload power  On-site distributed generation improves power reliability and energy securitydistributed generation  Fuel flexible DFCs can be operated on clean natural gas, renewable biogas or directed biogas Fuel flexible  Combined heat and power (CHP) further drives economics and efficiency — as high as 90 percent, depending on the application Combined heat and power (CHP)  Avoid investment and maintenance in costly, difficult to site transmission & distribution (T&D) infrastructure  Versatile DFC power plants convert biogas waste disposal problems into ultra- clean power generation solutions for operations that generate biogas  High efficiency minimizes the carbon footprint of DFC plants operating on natural gas; DFC plants are generally classified as carbon neutral by regulatory bodies when operating on biogas due to its renewable nature Source: Fuel Cell Energy, also available at http://www.fuelcellenergy.com/why-fuelcell-energy/benefits/http://www.fuelcellenergy.com/why-fuelcell-energy/benefits/

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5 5 - the need to have a framework to facilitate the Demand Response in power market - the Importance of the bilateral information exchange Economics of Smart Grid (Demand Response)

6 Software CD Design Hourly Power Consumption Analysis (KEPCO) -6- Program Initiation

7 Hourly Power Consumption Analysis (KEPCO)

8 Main Menu Hourly Power Consumption Analysis (KEPCO) -8-

9 Data Raw Data on Customer Information KEPCO AffilateData Points (’05-’09) Number Customer 경기북부 72,9232,081 충북 60,6641,271 충남 129,6463,153 인천 141,2332,743 전북 47,882976 제주 14,012214 전남 100,6441,965 경기 257,0115,774 경남 81,0561,714 강원 48,5381,193 부산 199,0264,213 대구 & 경북 124,6982,940 서울 236,7985,969 총합계 1,514,13134,206 Raw Data on Customer Load Profile KEPCO AffilateNumber of Days (’05-’09) Number Customer 경기북부 1,041,137764 충북 269,208182 충남 402,621248 인천 1,723,1601,209 전북 930,248630 제주 298,976230 전남 1,594,8571,148 경북 123,92885 경기 5,095,0583,460 경남 1,516,6641,055 강원지사 312,906235 강원 249,733239 부산 3,668,5842,291 대구 573,901370 남서울 & 서울 2,903,7372,003 총합계 20,704,71814,149 1. Raw Data Summary 9

10 Data Cleaning Process Customer Profile Data Points (’05-’09) Number Customer Total1,514,13134,206 가공된 고객정보 데이터 Data Points (’05-’09) Number Customer 총합계 435,3988,645 Load Profile Number of Days (’05-’09) Number Customer Total20,704,71814,149 가공된 전력부하 데이터 Number of Days (’05-’09) Number Customer 총합계 12,354,2878,645 # Elimination of Duplicates # Choose in between the period of 2005.01 - 2009.12 # Elimination of Data Recording Error 2005.02.30/31 # Final Sample selection in conjunction with load profile # Elimination of Daily Duplicates # Elimination of Duplicate Errors at the KEPCO Affiliate (South Seoul/Seoul) # Final Sample selection in conjunction with load profile 10

11 데이터 현황 분류 1 분류 2 분류 3 코드기업수비고 주택용저압 100199 일반용 갑 저압 21187 고압 A 2212,119 고압 B 2311 을 고압 A 226844 고압 B 2367 임시 ( 을 ) 2X8696 교육용 저압 2133 고압A 22316 농사용 갑 4101 병 43043 3. 모형적용을 위한 고객정보 및 전력부하 데이터 현황 (1) 11

12 데이터 현황 분류 1 분류 2 분류 3 코드기업수비고 산업용 갑 저압 31151 고압 A 321483 고압 B 3312 을 고압 A 7212,428 고압 B 7314 병 고압 A 7261,399 고압 B 736161 고압 C 7461 가로등을 61035 심야 갑 90516 을 91568 3. 모형적용을 위한 고객정보 및 전력부하 데이터 현황 (2) 12 => 위 것과 함께 하나로

13 KSIC ( Korean standard industrial classification) and KEPCO Data 13

14 Panel Type of Regression Equation 14

15 Fitted Load Pattern (Chemical Industry C, High Voltage A) 15 - Customer Number [726-0305] - Actual and Fitted load pattern 480Hours after Jan. 1st

16 Simulation Result(Chemical Industry C, High Voltage A) 16 - Customer Number [726-0305] - With the 20% Price Increase, following gives the expected impact on power consumption 480Hours after Jan. 1st

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18 Smart Grid Taxonomy—Dividing the System Source: Leeds, DJ, The Smart Grid in 2010: Market Segments, Applications and Industry Players, GTM Research, 2009 Telco, Manufacturers Companies Power, Energy Companies Telco, Energy, Computer, Consultant, Software, Hardware Companies

19 Taxonomy of Smart Grid: Players Source: Leeds, DJ, The Smart Grid in 2010: Market Segments, Applications and Industry Players, GTM Research, 2009

20 Consumer Portal—Future Concept of Energy Management (Costumer Side) Electric Power Research Institute, Consumer Portal Stakeholder FAQ and Survey, IntelliGrid EPRI, 2005 Costumer portal is “a combination of hardware and software that enables two-way communication between energy service organizations and equipment within the consumers’ premises”

21 1. Google Power Meter Project Eight utilities representing over 10 million customers from 3 countries and 6 different US states have become the first partners of the Google PowerMeter project. They are offering these smart meters to their customers to enable them to access detailed information on their home energy use. To assist the utility partners with the integration to Google PowerMeter, the group is also joined by Itron, one of the world's largest meter manufacturers. Here are the first 9 partners: Glasgow EPB Location: Glasgow, Kentucky Customers: 7,000 JEA Location: Northeast Florida Customers: 417,000 Reliance Energy Location: Mumbai, Delhi & Orissa, India Customers: 6.8 million San Diego Gas & Electric ® Location: San Diego County and Southern Orange County, California Customers: 1.4 million Toronto Hydro–Electric System Limited Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada Customers: 684,000 TXU Energy Location: Texas Customers: 2.2 million White River Valley Electric Cooperative Location: Portions of Christian, Douglas, Ozark, Stone and Taney counties in Missouri Customers: 40,000 Wisconsin Public Service Location: Northeast and Central Wisconsin and an adjacent portion of Upper Michigan Customers: 450,000 Yello Strom Location: Germany Customers: 1.4 million

22 EUROPE NoTelecom companies Power companiesMain activities 1Metering data center, M2M communication network 2UTILIS’s smart metering, integrated solution with billing systems 3NES meters, meter management software 4Management of metering information, reporting, maintenance and support of all devices 5System to manage the deployment of Linky smart meters 6T connectElecktro-Kraft and Jeppo Kraft ADDAX remote reading electric meters 7AiMiR system Deployment 8Low cost PLC Automatic/Remote Meter Reading, Home/Building Automation, Switching and Lighting, HVAC Control 9Turn-key solutions, services for the BPL/PLC 10Advanced Automated Meter management (AMM) system solutions

23 North America NoTelecom companiesPower companies 1Open standards-based, secure wireless network communications 2MotorolaMotorola’s Harmony system 3Advanced Metering System, Utility of the Future Project 4Intelligent communications infrastructure, smart meters 5MotorolaWireless communication systems and services 6Customer care and Billing, Pecan Street Project 7GoogleSmart Meters “Google Powermeter Project” 8intelligent communication platform, home energy management information and controls 9Smart metering and Smart Grid engagements

24 Australia and New Zealand case NoTelecom companiesPower companies 1Turn-key metering, installation of AMM 2Network infrastructure, communications 3Advanced metering technology, operational services NoTelecom companiesPower companies 1AiMiR system Deployment 2MotorolaMotorola MOSCAD system ASIA and South America

25 Task I : SGMM and KUL

26 SGMM Architecture and Matrix 6 Levels x 8 Domains Source: SEI, 2011, SGMM Model Definition: A framework for smart grid transformation

27 Smart Grid Compass: Survey First 4 sections: Non-Specific Questions on Surveyee  Sections 1 and 2 capture contact information for the responding utility and the person completing the survey.  Section 3 collects key data about the responding organization.  Section 4 collects grid performance data that is used to correlate the impact of increasing smart grid maturity with overall grid performance. 8 Domain-Specific Questions  Sections 5-12 present multiple choice questions organized by SGMM domain that address each expected characteristic in the model. Source: SEI, 2011, SGMM Compass Assessment Survey: A survey based assessment of smart grid maturity

28 KUL : Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium Benjamin Dupont, Student Member, IEEE, L. Meeus, and R. Belmans, Fellow, IEEE, Measuring the “Smartness” of the Electricity Grid, 978-1-4244-6840-9/101, IEEE, 2010, http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber =5558673&isnumber=5558663&tag=1 Ronnie Belmans,  SmartGrids A Vision For Intelligent Electrical Grids Serving the Energy User, CEER Smartgrids, June 29, 2009  SmartGrids A Vision For Intelligent Electrical Grids, Smart Grids Presentatie, IEEE, 12 mei 2009  SmartGrids SRA 2035, Strategic Research Agenda Update of the SmartGrids SRA 2007 for the needs by the year 2035, March 2012 Both at the same department!! Ageing Assets Installation wave in European distribution systems in the 60s & 70s -> Replacement wave with business-as-usual approach -> Opportunity for new system architecture and operation schemes  EU SmartGrid Vision  Proper Measurement of ‘Smartness’ of SmartGrid will be an essential part! JRC EU SmartGrid Vision But JRC has publications on BCA! Source: SmartGrids SRA 2035: Strategic Research Agenda, Update of the SmartGrids SRA 2007 for the needs by the year 2035, EU, March 2012

29 Characteristics of SG (EPRI, DOE, KUL) Source: EPRI, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, Final Report, January 2010 U.S. Department of Energy, Smart Grid System Project, January 2009 Dupont, et al, 2010, Measuring the “Smartness” of the Electricity Grid Characteristics*Dupont. et al.(KUL)DOEEPRI 1 Enables informed participation by customers Advanced Meters Dynamic Pricing Signals Grid related signal Load Managed Customers Customer potals Energy Savings Smart Appliances Demand Side ManagementLoad Participation Prosumer 2 Accommodates all generation and storage options Distributed Generation and Storage PHEVsLoad Factor DER interconnection 3 Sell more than kWhs ** New Energy ServicesRegulatory Policy FlexibilityOpen Architecture/Stds Customer ChoiceElectric VehichlesPlug-in Electric Support MechanismsVenture CapitalAncillary Service Interoperability Maturity LevelInteroperability certification 4 Provide power quality for the 21 st Century Required Power Quality Power Quality Microgrids 5 Optimise assets and operate efficiently T&D AutomationDeferred gneration, project Dynamic Line Rating Capacity Factors Efficiencies 6 Operate resiliently to disturbances, attacks and natural disasters*** Advanced Sensors information ExchangeGrid Response LoadDER penetration T&D Reliability (Improvement in reliability and outage restoration) Standards in telecommunication infrastructureCyber Security Outage restoration improvement Sub total592046 *Each characteristics have similar name for each organization, the name of Characteristics are mainly based on Dupont et. Al. **EPRI and DOE use ‘Enables new products, services and markets’ *** In EPRI, he has two Charateristics for #6, but we integrated those in one because of those similarity.

30 Task II : BCA

31 BCA Comparison from Various Reports Benefits (EPRI 2010) BCA REPORTS EPRI 2004EPRI 2011FERC 2006FSC 2008IEE 2011 Economic Improved Asset Utilization Optimized Generator Operation Deferred Generation Capacity Investments XXX Reduced Ancillary Service Cost XXX Reduced Congestion Cost XX T&D Capital Savings Deferred Transmission Capacity Investments XXXX Deferred Distribution Capacity Investments XXXX Reduced Equipment Failures XX T&D O&M Savings Reduced T&D Equipment Maintenance Cost XX Reduced T&D Operations Cost XXX Reduced Meter Reading Cost XXXX Theft ReductionReduced Electricity Theft Energy EfficiencyReduced Electricity Losses XX Electricity Cost SavingsReduced Electricity Cost XXXX Reliability Power Interruptions Reduced Sustained Outages XXXXX Reduced Major Outages XXXXX Reduced Restoration Cost XXXXX Power Quality Reduced Momentary Outages XXXX Reduced Sags and Swells XX Environmental Air Emissions Reduced CO2 Emissions XXXX Reduced SOx, NOx, and PM-10 Emissions XX Security Energy Security Reduced Oil Usage (not monetized) X Reduced Wide-scale Blackouts XX Source: EPRI_2004 Power Delivery System of The Future: A Preliminary Estimate of Costs and Benefits (EPRI 1011001) EPRI_2010 Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects (EPRI 1020342) EPRI_2011a Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid: A Preliminary Estimate of the Investment Requirements and the Resultant Benefits of a Fully Functioning Smart Grid (EPRI 1022519) FERC_2006 Assessment of Demand Response & Advanced Metering (AD-06-2-000) FSC_2008 Benefit-Cost Analysis of Advanced Metering and Time Based Pricing IEE_2011 The Costs and Benefits of Smart Meters for Residential Customers

32 국내 BCA 사례 ( 한국전력, 2011.7) 고객측면의 BCA 결과Utilities 측면의 BCA 결과 Source: AMI 구축과 RTP 시행에 따른 경제성 분석, 기획본부, 경영연구소, 한국전력, 2011.7

33 Previous Researches Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010

34 Other BCA Researches FSC, 2007, Benefit-Cost Analysis for Advanced Metering and Time-Based Pricing, Stephen S. George, Michael Wiebe, Workshop, Freeman Sullivan & Co., November 13, 2007 - (Short, ppt) FSC, 2008, Benefit-Cost Analysis for Advanced Metering and Time-Based Pricing, Stephen S. George, Josh Bode, Michael Wiebe, Freeman Sullivan & Co., Jan., 2008 - (Full Document) ESC, 2002a, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002 ESC, 2002b, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002, pp. 79-87 ESC, 2002c, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002, pp 62-66 ESC, 2002d, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002, pp.62-66 ESC, 2002e, Installing Interval Meters for Electricity Customers – Costs and Benefits - Position Paper, November 2002, pg. 85 CRA and Impaq Consulting, 2005, Advanced Interval Meter Communications Study, Draft Report, 23 December 2005, pg. 60. Institute for Electric Efficiency, 2010, “ Utility Scale Smart Meter Deployment, Plans and Proposal (September, 2010) IEE, 2011, The Costs and Benefits of Smart Meters for Residential Customers, IEE Whitepaper, Institute for Electric Efficiency July 2011 Greentech Media report, 2011, “ Smart Grid HAN Strategy Report 2011: Technologies, Market Forecast, and Leading Players, “2011 EPRI, 2004, “Power Delivery System of the Future: A Preliminary Estimate of Costs and Benefits,” Palo Alto, CA: 1011001. EPRI, 2008, “Characterizing and Quantifying the Societal Benefits Attributable to Smart Metering Investments,” Palo Alto, CA: 1017006. EPRI, 2008, “The Green Grid: Energy Savings and Carbon Emissions Reductions Enabled by a Smart Grid,” Palo Alto, CA: 1016905. EPRI, 2010, “Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects,” Palo Alto, CA: 1020342. EPRI, 2011, “Estimating the Costs and Benefits of the Smart Grid: A Preliminary Estimate of the Investment Requirements and the Resultant Benefits of a Fully Functioning Smart Grid,” Palo Alto, CA: 1022519. The Brattle Group, 2008, “Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge 2010- 2030,” prepared by The Brattle Group for The Edison Foundation, November 2008. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC), 2006, Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering, Staff Report, February 2006 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC),2008, Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering, Staff Report, December 2008 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC), 2009, A National Assessment of Demand Response Potential, Staff Report, June 2009 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission(FERC), 2010, National Action Plan on Demand Response, Docket No. AD09-10, June 17, 2010 JRC, 2012, Guidelines for conducting a cost-benefit analysis of Smart Grid projects Modern Grid Initiative, http://www.netl.doe.gov/moderngrid.

35 Task III : JRC & DOE, EPRI

36 EPRI: The Concept of Benefit Definition: an impact (of a Smart Grid project) that has value to a firm, a household, or society in general. Types: Four fundamental categories of benefits  Economic – reduced costs, or increased production at the same cost, that result from improved utility system efficiency and asset utilization  Reliability and Power Quality – reduction in interruptions and power quality events  Environmental – reduced impacts of climate change and effects on human health and ecosystems due to pollution  Security and Safety – improved energy security (i.e., reduced oil dependence); increased cyber security; and reductions in injuries, loss of life and property damage Perspectives: Three basic groups of beneficiaries  Utilities are the suppliers of power and include electric utilities that generate power as well as the transmission and the load serving entities that deliver it (and integrated utilities that do all three)  Customers are the end-users or consumers of electricity  Society in general is the recipient of externalities of the Smart Grid – effects on the public or society at large – which can be either positive or negative in nature. Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010 Precision : represents the level of precision in the estimated magnitudes of these benefits and costs. A reasonable way of characterizing the general level of precision is to use broad categories such as: 1. Modest level of uncertainty in quantitative estimates and/or in monetization (the project might specify percentile values) 2. Significant uncertainty in quantitative estimates and/or in how to monetize 3. Highly uncertain 4. Cannot be quantified

37 Map Functions to Benefits (EPRI) Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010 Utility Consumer Society

38 Ten-Step Approach for Cost-Benefit Analysis (EPRI) Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010

39 JRC Application of BCA (InovGrid) Source: JRC, 2012, Guidelines for conducting a cost-benefit analysis of Smart Grid projects Step 2 Identify Functionalities Step 1: Identify Project and Its Technologies Step 3 Map each functionality to standardized benefit Step 4-5: Quantify Benefit

40 40 Characterization Module Screenshots (Example: Phase I)

41 INITIAL APPROACH TO QUANTIFY AND MONETIZE BENEFITS Source: EPRI 1020342, Methodological Approach for Estimating the Benefits and Costs of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects, January 2010 Table C-2 In general, Benefit = Baseline - Project

42 Benefit Calculation Input Data Optional Inputs: Alternative Formula of Benefit Calculation (usually more detailed) can be conducted at the right hand corner of new row of data input. Default: Default Input for Benefit Calculation Baseline ~2016, Project 2012-2016

43 Cost Representation (Too Simple Process!) 1.Yearly Cost  Input: the capital cost for each year along the project year 2.Amortized Cost  Input: Initial and final year of spending, Total capital cost, and Interest rate  Yearly amortized cost is calculated Amortized Cost Yearly Cost

44 Task I,II,III and Comparison and Proposition

45 Relationships Among the Tasks EPRI DOE SGCT JRC BCA SEI SGMM Tool Kit Development TASK III EU SmartGrid Enhancement Smartness Performance Mesurement Smartness, Maturity TASK I EPRI Guideline BCA-Benefit Cost Analysis TASK II

46 Other Tool Kit Development Experiences of EML

47 Wind (REVAP v0.9) & PV

48 Solar - REVAP v0.9

49 49 KNOC(Korea National Oil Comapany)


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