Presentation on theme: "US THORPEX Legacy Planning Meeting"— Presentation transcript:
1US THORPEX Legacy Planning Meeting The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) ProjectDaniel P. Eleuterio, Office of Naval ResearchJessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere ResearchFred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather ServiceDave McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography CommandUS THORPEX Legacy Planning MeetingJune 5, 2014- What can be done to facilitate the US research and operational communities to more effectively engage in the three THORPEX-Legacy projects?- How to foster international collaborations for mutual benefit?- What are some key scientific issues that can quickly benefit from a more focused research effort?- How to further promote collaborations between the forecast science and the SERA research communities?- How to further promote research to operational transitions?Participants are encouraged to suggest additional themes to be considered for discussions.
2National ESPC Overview An interagency collaboration, initiated between Navy, Air Force and NOAA and expanded to DoE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for coordination of research to operations of a National earth system analysis and prediction capability. The original project combined global weather models in an operational synoptic multi-model ensemble under NUOPC.Seeks improved communication and synergy, for global prediction of weather, ocean, and sea ice conditions at weather to short-term climate variability timescales.Common prediction requirements and forecast model standards that enable agencies to improve leverage and collaboration.A national research agenda that will improve prediction across scales from days to decades.Cooperative focus projects to assess predictability of global scale high impact environmental conditions to inform S&T, R&D, and transition to operations.Towards an multi-model ensemble based air-sea-land coupled global prediction capability
3Home Field Emphasis Challenges to Achieve a Weather-Ready Nation Hail, Tornadoes, Tropical Storms & HurricanesWinter Storms, IceExtreme Heat and ColdDroughts and FloodsClimate AdaptationSea Level RiseCommerce and NavigationAviation TransportationFood SecurityAir and Water QualityEcosystem HealthPrivate Sector and National SecurityHome Field EmphasisSlide provided by Ed RappaportNational Weather EnterprisePublic Safety and Economic Well-being of NationPublic-Private Partnership
4Defense Department Challenges – A Global Force for Good Home Field Advantage… at the Away GamesWe provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations – from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
5From Sources of Predictability at Weather to Seasonal/ Climate Variability Timescales to Operational Prediction through Global Coupled Model Ensembles
6NRC Study on Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting This study will identify:Potential sources of predictability and assess their relative value for advancing predictive skill;Process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into forecast models;Opportunities for application and advancement of atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice coupled models at S2S timescales (a few days to several weeks);Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S forecasts;Techniques for uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic products; andInfrastructure requirements for computational, data storage and communication, and visualization techniques needed to make high resolution data assimilating global coupled ensembles an operational reality.
7National ESPC Need: Seamless Full Earth System (or at least “lightly seamed”)Partnerships:ESPCNOPPHFIPNMMEUSGCRPUSCLIVARNUOPCWWRP/WCRPNational ESPC
8Coupled Model Development Navy ESPC Highlights - Infrastructure Design infrastructure for operational implementation for coupled systemDefine implementation across operational systems, architecture requirements, cycling setup including DANote the single sided “one-way” arrows for the uncoupled system. The coupled system, on the right, contains the feedback between the main HYCOM and NAVGEM forecasting systems which have two subsystems in common, CICE and WW3. NAVGEM contains two unique subsystems its LSM and NAAPS which have indirect feedback with HYCOM primarily through NAVGEM flux output.“Operational Implementation Design” has details on data volumes, resources required, and operational job distributions“In press” as Naval Research Laboratory Memorandum Report search under author Metzger
9Project Information and Highlights NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Earth System Prediction R2O (draft)Project Information and HighlightsSchedulingScope:Improved Model Guidance: Coupled NWP to 30 daysExpand critical weather forecasting research to operations (R2O)Accelerate development and implementation of improved global weather & ocean prediction modelsImprove data assimilation techniquesImprove software architecture and system engineeringPromote hurricane and other high impact forecast models that meet societal requirementsEstimated Benefits:Address growing service demandsIncreased accuracy and lead time for high impact weather forecastsMore reliable probabilistic forecastsEffectively mitigate economic disruption from hurricanes and other predictable “strong signal” weather phenomenaMilestoneDateInitiate Effort: Charter approved02/2014Planning Teams Organized03/2014Develop Spend Plan and Research Priorities06/2014Develop Next Generation Global Prediction System Implementation Plan09/2014Award External Grants3/2015Implement NEMS Physics Interoperability Interface9/2015Demonstrate Coupled NGGPSNext Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)Issues/RisksIncreased WCOSS Developmental Computing Capacity NeededProbabilistic operational skill at longer lead times needs to be better quantified and communicated.
10Air Force Post-Processed Ensemble Products Unlike Navy and NOAA, USAF does not develop their own global model nor share their forecast fields due to their licensing agreement. Instead they provide joint NUOPC Ensemble processing.Probability ofSurface wind > 25, 35, 50 ktsLower and upper level moderate and severe turbulenceIcing at 500, 700, 850, 925 mbSurface viz < 1, 3, 5 nmSurface temp < 32, > 90Many Precip products and othersAll provided to NCEP NOMADS servers as operational fields, 6 hrs time steps out to 10 day leads for all fields.Plans for longer lead times and higher resolution in 2014/15.Probability of Surface Level Reduced VisibilityProbability of SevereFighter Index of Thermal Stress (FITS)
11Collaborative Programs Across Scales: Multi-model ensembles Inter-agency Atmospheric Weather and Coupled Climate R2O EnsemblesHurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP: 1-7 days)Providing rapid improvement R2O capability for US (NOAA),Global (Navy) Tropical Cyclone Track and IntensityDistributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency resourcesNational Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NAEFS/ NUOPC: 5-16 days)Improving medium-range forecasts and probabilities of specific events.Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency missions and resourcesPlanned extension to 30 days (poss. 45 days)Increasing resolution to 1/2˚ in 2015Incorporating Common Modeling Architecture (ESMF)National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME: 3-9 months)Multi-model Climate Ensembles: more accurate than any one modelDistributed Production: leverages multi-agency andinternational computer infrastructure and investments (US, Canada)Currently a Phase II research project through FY14 for higherresolution output suitable for sub-seasonal updates (Weeks 3-12).
12DRAFT Interagency National ESPC Fielding Plan (2018) Forecast Lead8-14 Days15-30 Days31 – 90 Days3 – 18 MonthsAnnual to Decadal0-7 DaysNational Global Prediction NeedsBoundary conditions for TC Track & Intensity, TC genesis, Hi Res Littoral air/ocean operations, EM/EO/NBC predictionDrought/Flood, Heat Wave/Freeze Prediction, Storm Surge/Inundation/Erosion, Beach Warnings, Safety/Emergency/Public Health Operations, Ship & Aircraft Routing . . .Strategic Planning, Environmental Stress Instability, Arctic Sea Lanes, Ship and Land Transportation Infrastructure Management, Agriculture/Fisheries Planning & Ecosystem Management, Water Resource Management, Energy Sector Planning . . .Navy and DoD CapabilityTC-COAMPSOthersNAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE/WW-3NAVGEM EnsembleNUOPC/NAEFS EnsembleDOD Applications of NOAA managed Seasonal Ensemble PredictionStatic Climatology/Reanalysisbased on past environment“Climatology Products”HFIP EnsembleNUOPC EnsembleNOAA CapabilityHWRFGFDLGFSClimate Fcst System (CFSv2/3)National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)GFS, HYCOM, WW-3GEFS EnsembleMulti-Model EnsembleCFS-R, HURDAT, etc.
13The call for Extended Range Products in the S2S Gap (Federal/Operational, Credible, Reliable, Calibrated, and Probabilistic)When initialized anywhere in phase space, the solution collapses toward this attractor. However, behavior of the trajectory is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. -- Ed Lorenz (1963)Every day meteorologists predict next week’s weather…..Research is underway to develop models that will help them make predictions on an even longer timescale, seasonal forecasts of monsoon rains for example. --Tim Palmer, A weather eye on unpredictability (1991)Nearly 25 years later are we as far along as we should be?