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Astroid Observation – Resources and Partnering Information Theoretic, Statistical Data Mining for Astroid Threat Identification/Characterization Eikenberry-UFAstro.

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Presentation on theme: "Astroid Observation – Resources and Partnering Information Theoretic, Statistical Data Mining for Astroid Threat Identification/Characterization Eikenberry-UFAstro."— Presentation transcript:

1 Astroid Observation – Resources and Partnering Information Theoretic, Statistical Data Mining for Astroid Threat Identification/Characterization Eikenberry-UFAstro & Lindgren-EL 9/30/2013

2 CHALLENGES & COLLABORATIVE PROBLEM SOLVING APPROACH Observational data sets have vast and growing quantities of information on asteroids, Data for any given asteroid are often incomplete or inconclusively matched to the asteroid identification, We can combine our skill sets to provide tools that help exploit the richness of these data sets.

3 WHAT WE AND THESE TOOLS CAN DO Provide probabilistic models to help classify the asteroid properties, predict their orbital elements from partial data, and to validate their threat likelihood of earth impacts. Provide tools for better coping with error and uncertainty in incoming and archival data bases. For example :

4 EXAMPLES WHAT THESE TOOLS DO Missing Data ‐ Filling the Gaps with Probabilistic Estimates. Algorithms finds gaps and fills them based on cases where items are not missing. Does careful science based gap fill, tracks and reports changes. Data Distributions. Over a hundred of non‐normally distributed, algorithms/programs for parameter estimating & computing probabilities. Multivariate Probabilities and Uncertainties. Multivariate/information theoretic methodology able to handle nonlinearities in big data for modeling and rapidly estimating/finding rare outcomes

5 WE ARE NOW ACTIVELY FOSTERING Collaboration between academic scientists specializing in astronomical studies of asteroids observation, classification, and orbital/dynamical modeling, in the US and abroad, with Multidisciplinary Entropy Limited specialists, and Multidisciplinary professionals at public and private research centers, and laboratories, including NASA centers and relevant USG academic affiliates FFRDc.

6 OUR DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND SOME NEXT STEPS We are searching and finding many professionals and organizations that share our passion and have relevant tools. Our work to help build a focused network and true collaboration includes carrying out survey and bibliographic research, producing workshops, and develop joint projects with partners. The following slides list NASA and USG university resources, as well as FFRDCs of NASA plus NSF, DOE, DOD, DHS and the White House

7 RELEVANT MISSIONS NASA Asteroid Redirect Initiative NASA Wise, and Neo Wise Missions NASA Kepler 4 wheel mission NASA Kepler 2 wheel mission NEO options AND OTHERs NASA/DOE/NSF/USAF/INTERNATIONAL MISSIONS UNDERWAY AND PLANNED

8 UARC* RESOURCES University Affiliated Research Centers UARC partner/sponsors USG agencies include NASA, NSF, DOD and others - with focus on aerospace, physics, astronomy engineering, security, IT, etc. NASA Ames UARC-University of California System/UCSC and 501c3 Institutes including SETI Institute and BARI Institute -Bay Area Environmental Research Institute and others. UARCs include Univ. Arizona, CalTech, Johns Hopkins Univ., Univ. Hawaii, Univ. Washington and others

9 FFRDC RESOURCES – NSF NSF-UCAR-NCAR, National Center for Atmospheric Research NSF AUR/NOAO - National Optical Astronomy Observatories, AZ (and science collaborator /partner in the LSST) NSF AUI,NRAO-National Radio Astronomy Observatory NSF-SRI/Arecibo -NAIC-National Astronomy & Ionosphere Center, VA/Arecibo PR

10 FFRDC RESOURCES - DOE DOE: DOE-FIRMILAB- Fermi National Accelerator Lab/ Observatory DOE-ANL-Argonne National Lab, DOE-UC-LBNL-Lawrence Berkeley Nat. Lab DOE-UC/LLNS-LLNL-Lawrence Livermore National Lab DOE-UC/LAMS-LANL-Los Alamos National Lab DOE-Stanford Univ-SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (a science collaborator and partner in the NSF-DOE sponsored LSST- Large Synoptic Survey Telescope along with NOAO, UW, UC, NCSA, IPAC/CalTech, and others).

11 FFRDC RESOURCES - DOD DOD-OSD-USAF-AC Aerospace Corporation DOD-OSD/USAF-MIT-MIT Lincoln Laboratory DOD-OSD-NDRI/RAND National Def. Res. Inst DOD-OSD-US Army. Arroyo/RAND DOD-OSD-MITRE-NSEC-Nat. Sec. Eng. Center DOD-CMU-SEI-Software Engineering Institute DOD-Lockheed-SNL-Sandia National Lab. DOD-IDA-SAC-Inst. Defense Analysis- Studies AC

12 FFRDC RESOURCES - DHS - EOP DHS: DHS-SS&T-Analytic Services, Inc-HSSAI- Homeland Security Studies & Analysis Institute DHS-SS&T-MITRE/HSSED-Homeland Security Systems Engineering and Development Institute, VA White House-EOP-OSTP/NSF-IDA STPI. Science and Technology Policy Institute

13 VA* RESOURCES-OPPORTUNITIES Virtual Astronomy We have identified a number of exciting ‘virtual astronomy’ projects and workers around the world who are making new NEO discoveries and improved NEO characterizations from NEO observational data and from digging through massive cataloged image databases. We look forward to working these pioneers to help make their work more efficient and effective

14 COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT STAGES Survey, develop collaboration consensus, & proposals. Develop real world asteroid observational data sets for testing Find and select best of breed existing tool sets to test Develop next generation collaborative tool test design, building and objectively test. Feasibility. Product. Educate. Try out. Obtain and digest critical feedback. Publication in relevant peer reviewed professional journals. Follow up / next steps. Est time: 24 – 36 months.

15 CONTACTS Prof. Steve Eikenberry, Univ. Florida Astronomy Web: Email: and Coordinator Veronica Donoso Dr Ron Christensen / Dr Orley Lindgren Entropy Limited, Web: Email: Email: olindgren@entropylimited



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