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Questions from the Thinker Think about it....... 1d 2d 3d <= Infinity. black-hole 0d R1R1 R2R2 x1x1 x2x2 x3x3 x4x4 x5x5 XNXN... n-dimensional => What is.

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Presentation on theme: "Questions from the Thinker Think about it....... 1d 2d 3d <= Infinity. black-hole 0d R1R1 R2R2 x1x1 x2x2 x3x3 x4x4 x5x5 XNXN... n-dimensional => What is."— Presentation transcript:

1 Questions from the Thinker Think about it d 2d 3d <= Infinity. black-hole 0d R1R1 R2R2 x1x1 x2x2 x3x3 x4x4 x5x5 XNXN... n-dimensional => What is Design of Experiments? And why is DOE important? Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

2 Discussion: Edison & Einstein Edison: I didn’t fail 10,000 times, I learned 10,000 ways that won’t work. Einstein: I could have worked out the physics in a week. Edison: But would you prove it’s the optimum solution? Einstein: Yes, I see the value of Design of Experiments! DOE Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

3 Terminology of the DOE Science DOE: statistical modeling of test plans Factors: measurables affecting response Response(s): the desired measurable(s) JMP/DOE: interactive software platforms Evaluation: statistical goodness measure ! Iteration: repeating the designs and tests (on products, or enterprise, or services!) Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

4 The full suite of DOE platforms n-factor Response Optimizer Definitive Screening Design {Ver.11} Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

5 Envision, Plan, Do, Check, Act PLAN (design) the experiment; DO the experiment by performing the steps; CHECK the results by testing the information; and ACT on the decisions based on those results. Envision Plan Do Check Act Envision >> Plan >> Do >> Check >> Act! {[(repeat)]} He is perhaps best known for the cycle of professor, author, lecturer and consultant. was an American statistician, Dr William Edwards Deming W. Edwards Deming: Continual Improvement {settle in…} Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

6 The JMP Starter window Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

7 Full-Factorial The basis of the science is to choose ranges for the n factors and assign a top value and low value for each factor. The factors can be varied and starting optimum results calculated. The icon picture represents an n-dimensional cube and if a middle dot is shown, it means a middle value can also be used. Math example: 5! = 5x4x3x2x1 = 120 cases “Five factorial has 120 combinations!” (If too costly, we can try to do better.) Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

8 Custom Design The JMP Custom Design allows you to tailor your plan of experiments to meet specific requirements. Custom Design is often the first choice that one choses from the available design options. This is most advisable! Design professionals begin with Custom Design. Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

9 { RSM } (response surface method) At some point, you want to do some auxiliary statistical graphics, visualization, and optimization exploration. You can do this with JMP to look for local and global maximum or minimum points on the factor surface. Visually, see maximum peaks (or minimums) on plotted surfaces. Assess if you are at localized peaks or valleys, or are they are the global solution you seek. Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation Response Surface Design Min Max

10 Sonic, America’s Drive-In “We are hiring, and growing!” What determines good new-hire candidates? Example of DOE Example of DOE Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation

11 Sonic, America’s Drive-In “We are hiring, and growing!” What determines good employees? Let’s consider the hiring process. Who should be hired based on initial information, and augmented in the future by performance reviews and other measurable factors? Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation First Iteration: Use JMP/DOE Custom Design with a response factor of service times performance: I.e. for the last year of hiring, RATING = (weeks served) times (performance rating). Begin in Oklahoma City, and then in California. Propose the tests to the Sonic CEO. Future Iterations: Use JMP/DOE Augment Design to add additional factors, to be determined, and additional new-hire data as it becomes available expanding to additional states.

12 “We are hiring, and growing!” What determines good employees?   Add ratings later. Try a Custom reduced test set. Try a Custom reduced test set.

13 The design of 12 test runs is a lot less than the 54 from before. These 12 runs will compete very well with the 54 runs ! They will be sufficient to begin iteration after fine tuning your plans and statistical analysis. These 12 test cases constitute the new design.  Sonic, America’s Drive-In “We are hiring, and growing!” What determines good employees? Try other JMP DOE models. Try other JMP DOE models.

14 What we have covered... Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation Steps: Think, Design, Test, Analyze, Act! Improvement involves iterations (repeat) Custom Design starts your path... Consider specialized design platforms If possible, use full-factorial design As need, try other JMP/DOE platforms.

15 Employ the entire design theory Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation Involve key people Determine the factors Start with Custom Design Analyze every step of the way Continual improvement is the goal Ever learn and expand knowledge

16 Enjoy the conference! A poster paper by Thanks for attention! Charles Edwin (Twitter) Kirk Paul (Twitter) Let’s talk in the hallway … Begin again Consider Consulting Corporation and Software Intelligence Corporation Begin again


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