Presentation on theme: "Performance of Textile Industry 2007 and Forecast in 2008"— Presentation transcript:
1Performance of Textile Industry 2007 and Forecast in 2008 INDONESIAN TEXTILE ASSOCIATIONASOSIASI PERTEKSTILAN INDONESIAPerformance of Textile Industry 2007 and Forecast in 2008Adhigraha Bldg. 16 th fl.Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto, Kav. 56Jakarta – IndonesiaTel , FaxWebsite:
2NASIONAL MACROECONOMIC Economic Indicators BUSINESS CONDITION 2007NASIONAL MACROECONOMICEconomic Indicators2004200520062007 (est)Economic Growth (%)*5.135.605.506.00Inflation (%)*6.4017.116.606.38Currency (Rp/US$)*9.3609.8309.0209.130BI Rate (%)*7.4012.759.758.00Investment (Rp. triliun)*58.30118.2859.29167.92Goods Trade Balance (USD billion)***25.0627.9639.7339.92Non-oil Trade Balance (USD billion)***21.1526.1937.4939.51Number of Unemployment (million people)****9.8010.7011.7012.70Number of Poverty (million people)****36.2035.1039.0545.70Source : BI*, BKPM**, BPS***, Lipi**** proceccedThe economic growth is still reduced by inflation and society purchasing power has yet to grow.No spreading out of economic growth (still focusing on the non-intensive labor sectors); thus it has yet to reduce unemployment and poverty.Performance of the real sectors (trade balance) are still hampered, and it has yet to be able to give good impact on the economic growth.
3Domestic and World Textile Consumption BUSINESS CONDITION 2007Domestic and World Textile ConsumptionDomestic Finished Clothes Consumption 2007 (Est.)Total People Consumption *US$ 268,17 billionFinished Clothes Cons. (2,5%)**US$ 6,71 billionVolume conversion (US$ 5,5/kg)**tonSource: BI*, BPS** processedBy value, finished clothes consumption declined but by volume the domestic consumption increased. Consumption per capita reached 5.3 kg (in 2006: 4,6kg/capita)World consumption increased by 3%.World consumption per capita in 2007 about 8,48 kg (in 2006: 8,37kg/capita)Source : WTO, Otexa, Eurotex processed
4DOMESTIC MARKET (Total Sales: 358.000 ton worth US$ 1,97 billion) PERFORMANCE OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2007National Textile Production &Model of Distribution 2007 (000 ton)Production : 800Export: 220(27,5%)Impor : 705Fiber :Production: 1680Export: 800(47,6%)Import: 90Yarn:Production: 970Export: 320(32,9%)Import: 110Fabric:Production: 410Export: 380(92,6%)Import: 20Garment :Production : 120Export: 110(91,6%)Import: 68Other Products:Production: 230SMEs Garment :DOMESTIC MARKET (Total Sales: ton worth US$ 1,97 billion)Source: API (processed)Indonesia is still relying on export market by USA, EU and Japan as the mainexport destination country.
5Trade Performance (Export-Import) PERFORMANCE OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2007Trade Performance (Export-Import)Trade Performance 2007 (Compared to 2006)Sub-SectorExportImportValue (US$ billion)Volume (000 ton)Fiber0,3 (15% increase)220 6% increase)0,98 (24% increase)705 (increase 18%)Yarn1,89 (6,1% increas)800 (1% increase)0,23 (17,8% decrease )90 (decrease 29%)Fabric1,44 (2% decrease )320 (0,6% decrease )0,44 (22% increase)110 (increase 5,7%)Garment5,97 (13,2% increase)380 (1% increase)0,15 (200% increase)20 (increase 81%)Other product0,46 (15% increase)110 (10% decrease )0,25 (increase 177%)68 (decrease 21%)TOTAL10,06 (6,4% increase)1.830 (2,6% decrease )2,05 (increase 29,7%)993 (increase 4,6%)Source: BPS (est) processedExport value increased by 6.4% (has yet to meet growth target by 10% annually).Export volume declined and the increase of export was driven by increase of unit price.Importing clothing drastically increase.Trade balance totaled US$ 8.01 billion (increased by 1.8% compared to 2006).The world trade value of 2007 reached to USD 546 billion, and Indonesia only dominated 1.8% of the total market share.Source: BPS
6Domestic Market Condition PERFORMANCE OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2007Domestic Market ConditionDomestic market consumption increased by 20% to 1.22 million ton.The local products sales in domestic market declined by 42.9% to ton and 22% share (far from the target of 75%).Import volume of clothing and other products increased by 72%.Import products dominated domestic market by 70% share to ton.Source : BPS, Ministry of Industry, BI, API Compiled
7INDONESIA POSITION IN USA MARKET PERFORMANCE OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2007Position in Int’l MarketINDONESIA POSITION IN USA MARKETJANUARY-OCTOBER 2007Export to the US grew by 10% to US$ 4.32 billion.Indonesia’s share in the US market was 4.39% (in 2006 was 4.21% share).The position declined 1 level to 5th, under Vietnam by share 4.62% (in 2006: 3.74%).% SHARE
8INDONESIA POSITION IN EU-27 MARKET PERFORMANCE OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2007Position in Int’l MarketINDONESIA POSITION IN EU-27 MARKETJANUARY-AUGUST 2007Despite EU import increased by 1.2% but Indonesia export to the region declined by 1.2%.Indonesia’s share is 1% and the position is in the 8th in the EU countries.%SHARE
9INDONESIA POSITION IN JAPAN MARKET PERFORMANCE OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2007Position in Int’l MarketINDONESIA POSITION IN JAPAN MARKETJANUARY-NOVEMBER 2007 *)In 2007, Japan textile import increased by 3.3% and Indonesia export rose by 2.1% to US$ 504 million.Indonesia’s market share in 2007 increased to 2.9% (2006: 1.8% share).% SHARENote: *) Excl. EU-25
10Inter-ASEAN Textile Trade PERFORMANCE OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2007Inter-ASEAN Textile TradeData : *) Jan-JunIndonesia Export to ASEAN slowly increased by 3.3% and the import fast increased by 15%, mainly from Thailand and Philippines.*) Jan-Jun
11Impact on National Economic PERFORMANCE OF TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2007Impact on National EconomicTEXTILE CONTRIBUTION AGAINST THE GDP VALUE 2007INDONESIA TEXTILE TRADE BALANCE(US$ billion)Net Export : US$ 8,01 billionDom. Sales : US$ 1,97 billionInvestment : US$ 0,33 billionTotal : US$ 10,31 billionGDP : US$ 423,69 MilyarSHARE SURPLUS OFINDONESIA TRADE 2007(TOTAL US$ BILLION)SHARE OF WORKER IN TEXTILE INDSUTRYAGAINST THE NATIONAL INDUSTRY(97,58 MILLION)Biggest foreign exchange earner from non-oil sector (2,4% to GDP)Export surplus is always above US$ 5 billion annuallyThe biggest absorber of workers in manufacturing industry15%Textile & Garment(1,841,520)
12TEXTILE BUSINESS CLIMATE 2008/2009: CHANCE, CHALLENGE, OBSTACLE AND WORKING AGENDA IN TEXTILE INDUSTRY
13National & World Economic BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009National & World EconomicIf target of 6.8% economic growth in 2008 can reachable and inflation can be reduced by 5%, the society’s purchasing buyer would increase. At any rate, government must focus on the sector driven to increase the economic growth. If not focusing on the increase of the manufacturing sector, the economic growth would be in appearance only since it cannot reduce number of unemployment and poverty.Along with the increase of the world crude oil price reached to about USD 100/barrel, the world economic is expected to slow down. It will impact on the growth of trade volume and value (export-import. The decline of growth in the importing countries will also make the trade dropped.
14BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009 Textile Consumption & Supply-DemandOptimistic assumption, if government can increase society’s purchasing power, the textile consumption will grow to about 1.3 million ton in 2008.Despite not significant, the world textile consumption is predicted to remain grow and would be 56.6 million ton in 2008 by USA and EU as the main market.Source: WTO, Otexa, Eurotex processed
15World & Domestic Textile Market BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009World & Domestic Textile MarketDespite consumption grows, the illegal import will disturb market share of local products in domestic market. For that, share in the domestic market is predicted to remain under 25%.Growth of the world textile consumption will impact on the trade value. In 2008, the world textile trade will reach to US$ 565 billion.China and India are still dominating world textile trade. China will be free from the safeguard measure and to be member of WTO. Indonesia will face other potential competitor such as Vietnam and Kampuchea those get rapidly growth in the garment industry.
16World & Domestic Textile Market BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009World & Domestic Textile MarketTo increase competitiveness in the domestic and export, the government should focus on:Having trade cooperation (FTA) with the countries to be main export destination like USA and EU, like with Japan (IJ-EPA).Activating ITPC as marketing agent of the national industry in cooperates with related associations relating to the effort to have market penetration.Facilitating promotion like exhibition and other promotional activities in the countries to be main textile export destination, such as Textile World (EU), Magic Show (USA), ITAF, IFW, etc.Handling problem of unfair trade competition, in which import goods can be easily imported and circulated to the domestic market.
17Target on Production Capacity ITPT National 2010 BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009Investment & Machinery ModernizationDespite banking is still focusing on the government obligation savings; however, some banks begins allocating funds to the textile industry.Program of Increasing Machinery Technology in the textile industry drive textile manufacturers to modernize machines and expand production capacity. In 2007, the investment increased to US$ 300 million. This investment will impact on the performance of textile industry in the future.In 2008, it is expected that there would be increase of investment of more than US$ 500 million. The fund is allocated to modernize machines in the sectors of spinning and weaving and increase production capacity in knitting, finishing, and weaving.Restructuring/Modernization- 2.5 million spindle- 200,000 shuttle loomExpansion- 20 Man Made Fibre unit2.4 spindle63,500 shuttle-less loom16,600 knitting mach.221 finishing unit179,000 sewing machIncrease of Production Capacity (million ton)Fiber :Yarn :Grey Fabric :Finish Fabric :Garment :Target on Production CapacityITPT National 2010
18Availability of Energy Supply BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009Availability of Energy SupplyThe energy supply from PLN has yet to meet the industry’s demand.The electricity base rate (4 cent/kwh) is competitive enough, but the applied rate (due to peak season program, multiuse, public lighting and VAT) makes no longer competitive (8 cent/kwh).Textile industry has begun doing energy diversification by building private power plant using coal and gas as fuel sourceSource : API Compiled
19Government should focus on: BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009Availability of Energy SupplyGovernment should focus on:Giving priority to primary energy (gas and coal) to meet the domestic energy demand.Supporting industry to have energy diversification by making sure continuity of gas and coal supply to the industry.Increasing efficiency for the PLN performance and building new power plant using domestic source of primary energy; thus it can meet industry’s need by competitive price.
20Average Cost for Labor 2007 (US$/hour) Labor Productivity Rank 2005 BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009LaborThe labor system cannot drive increase of workers’ productivity; thus it declines competitiveness.The Act No. 13/2001 especially for minimum wage, outsourcing, overtime, and severance pay, is still burdening industry (un-friendly business policy).The Work Training Center has yet to be maximally used to increase workers’ productivity.Average Cost for Labor 2007 (US$/hour)Indonesia: 0,76China: 0,55Vietnam: 0,35India: 0,60Pakistan: 0,40BangladeshLabor Productivity Rank 2005Thailand: 27Malaysia: 28Korea: 29: 31Filipina: 49: 59Source : Min. Of Labor compiled from any other sourceCompany does training to increase workers’ productivity, either done internally or makes cooperation with the training institutions
21API in cooperates with government should focus on: BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009LaborAPI in cooperates with government should focus on:Revising the Act No. 13/2001 mainly in minimum wage, outsourcing, overtime, severance pay to make business more and more favorable.Reactivating Work Training Center (BLK) as training institution to increase workers’ skill and productivity.Supporting training and education centers to increase workers’ productivity. The centers can make cooperation with industry in arrange model of training and education.
22Terminal Handling Charge Rate (US$) BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009InfrastructureHigh-cost economy in transportation sector (from, in and to the seaports):The THC rate is more expensive compared to the ASEAN countries.Access to seaports damage and traffic jam (cost and time of transportation is more and more increase).Terminal Handling Charge Rate (US$) Country2004200520 feet40 feetIndonesia15024097Singapore110160Philippine78N/aMalaysia76Thailand40Source: Indonesian Shipowner Association (DEPALINDO)
23BUSINESS CLIMATE FORECAST 2008/2009 InfrastructureTo handle the problems in infrastructure, API and government should focus on:Increase productivity and efficiency of the seaport performance to make quicker services and reduce THC of 20-feet under US$ 70/container and 40-feet under US$ 100/container.Improving access from and to the seaport to reduce traffic jam.Drive investment in transportation sector (train) from industrial estates to the seaport. It will make transportation faster, safer and more competitive price.
24TARGET OF THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2008: By above estimation and forecast, performance of the textile industry in 2008 is targeted:Investment aimed at modernizing and expanding production will increase 5% of production capacity; thus, the production utilization is targeted to be above 80%.By new investment, it is expected there would be growth by 5% of number of workers.Import growth in the US, IJ-EPA and AJ-EPA, correction of the RMB value against the USD, political condition in Pakistan, industrial growth of home textile in Asia, and accurate promotional strategy are expected to drive growth by 10% of export.The domestic market will be difficult to reach. At any rate, if the national textile industry can seize market share of uniform, the local products are expected to dominate 60% of the domestic market.---- T H A N K Y O U ---
25TARGET OF THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY 2008: Forecast of textile export by sub-sector in 2008 as follows:Total Export Growth : 10%Fiber export growth : 0%Yarn export growth : 10%Fabric export growth : 5%Ready-made wear : 12%Other textile export growth : 6%Forecast of Textile Export Value of 2008Total : US$ 11,06 billionFiber Export value : US$ 0,3 billionYarn export value : US$ 2,08 billionFabric export value : US$ 1,51 billionReady-made wear export : US$ 6,68 billionOther : US$ 0,49 billion
26T H A N K Y O U INDONESIAN TEXTILE ASSOCIATION ASOSIASI PERTEKSTILAN INDONESIAAdhigraha Bldg. 16 th fl.Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto, Kav. 56Jakarta – IndonesiaTel , Fax