In Summary, This Storm Was Associated With… Weak surface cyclogenesis A high amplitude, open mid-level trough Coupled jets at 300 mb Strong low-to-mid-level frontogenesis Reduced stability above the frontal zone indicating potential for enhanced banding. Models in good agreement on the placement of max qpf over the Poconos/Catskills.
What verified… Maximum snowfall and precipitation occurred over the central southern tier of NY (west of the model forecasts). Much less precipitation and snowfall occurred over the Poconos and Catskills than what was forecast.
Eta forecast time-cross section of snow growth area and omega at AVP
Eta forecast time-section of snow growth area and omega at BGM
Summary Models were indicating a significant snowstorm over the Poconos and Catskill Mountains. Large-scale forcing was relatively modest. Models were basing the high qpf on the placement of strong low-level frontogenesis. Models were in good agreement. Observed snowfall maximum was west of the model forecasts. One source of model error may have been poor initialization of the 700 mb temperature gradient associated with the frontogenesis. Another factor was less favorable microphysical environment over the Poconos/Catskills.
A WES SIMULATION IS AVAILABLE… Michael.Evans@noaa.gov