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Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008 Presentation to Safe Food NSW February 14, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD - 02 14 2008 Presentation to Safe Food NSW February 14, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Presentation to Safe Food NSW February 14, 2008

2 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD There are approximately dairy farms employing people, looking after 4,4 million milking cows and producing 24 billion litres of milk per year goat farms ewe farms

3 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD The dairy farms deliver annually 23 billion litres of milk to … … 700 processing plants, employing people and generating 23,5 billions €.

4 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD The productions of the French dairy sector

5 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Laguiole Bleu d’Auvergne Beaufort Bleu du Vercors Cantal Fourme d’Ambert Fourme de Montbrison Tome des Bauges Reblochon Abondance Bleu de Gex Salers Beurre Charente-Poitou Comté Morbier Mont d’Or Munster Langres Chaource Epoisses Maroilles Neufchâtel Livarot Camembert de Normandie Beurre & Crème d’Isigny Brie de Meaux Pont l’Evêque Bleu des Causses Saint Nectaire Brie de Melun A.O.P. Cow’s Milk Cow :28 A.O.P. Butter :2 A.O.P. Cream :1 A.O.P.

6 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD millions d'euros Exports in value Imports in value Balance in value French international trade of dairy products (to EU and other countries) The international trade of dairy products The foreign outlet : To day :  a « dairy product » positive balance of 2 billions per year To morrow :  decrease of restitutions  increase of the imports ? Source : ATLA

7 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Export markets essentielly europeans but 20% of exports go to other foreign countries Value of french exports of dairy products (Millions d’€) Belgique550 Allemagne672 Pays Bas 211 Italie422 Roy. Uni 424 Espagne513 Maghreb112 Reste Afrique 80 Am. du Nord 152 PECO et CEI 34 Proche et Moyen Orient 96 Reste Asie 146 Océanie6 Total Exports : millions d’€ of which EU 25 : millions d’€ other foreign countries : 826 millions d’€

8 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD The french are heavy consumers of dairy products (annual consumption, kg/habitant) Cheese Liquid milk

9 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD The dairy products outputs (excluding milk powder) Breakdown of volume consumption - Summary year 2005 Products Consumption Household/sales Food service Industry Fluid milk 86%14%0% Cream 62%16%22% Butter 45%10%45% Cheeses (1) 79%9%12% Yogurt & Desert (2) 89%11%0% TOTAL81%12%7% (1) Inc fresh salted cheese (2) Ex. fresh salted cheese Source : CNIEL

10 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Breakdown of households food spendings 2006 The dairy sector gathers up almost one fifth of all food spendings Fruits & vegetables 10% (+1,9%) Sea food 4% (-2,7%) Meat & poultry 14% (-0,5%) Delicatessen 12% (+3,5%) Drinks 9% (+1,0%) Dairy 18% (-0,5%) Frozen food 6% (+3,7%) Grocery 27% (+0,4%) Evol total : +0,7%

11 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD What dairy products for tomorrow? Decline of products used as ingredients (standard milk, butter) for home usages that are becoming obsolete (pastry, home made sauces, and elaborate cooking). Increase of culinary aids: plain or flavoured creams, cooking cheese (spreadable, gratin, etc..), ready to use sauces. Multiplication of recipies and new targeted offers to dismantle the monolith image of some markets (« milk is just milk »). Increase of personalised single shares, a work largely done by yogurts and dairy deserts, partially by cheese and still to be invented for butter and milk Setting up of meal solutions based on dairy products for out of home consumption. Development of cheese based meal solutions for home consumption. Ageing of the population : development of a dairy offer adapted to the needs of senior consumers (nutrition, packaging, advises).

12 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD U&A - Base = 1013 people A food family with a very positive image in % 7,8/10 7,6/10 7,4/10 6,8/10 6,3/10 Average note Q9b.J e vais vous présenter différents produits laitiers. Pour chaque produit, je vous demanderai de me donner une note de 0 à signifie que vous avez une très mauvaise opinion de ce produit, 10 signifie que vous en avez une très bonne opinion, les notes intermédiaires servent à nuancer votre jugement. Source : CSA yogurts butter dairy deserts cream fresh or UHT cheese milk

13 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Milk Yogurts Cheese Butter Dairy deserts Fresh cream nsp Less healthyMost healthy (55) (2) (/) (19) (22) (/) (2) (1) (4) (35) (28) (22) (00) : the most healty (first quote); (00) : the less healthy (first quote) Q9b. Et toujours parmi ces produits, pouvez vous me donner ceux que vous estimez être les 2 meilleurs pour la santé ? et les 2 moins bons pour la santé ? En % U&A - Base = 1013 people But there is a clear gap between two families of dairy products Source : CSA

14 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD N°1 in popularity About the following types of farming, can you tell me if you have an excellent, good, bad or very bad opinion? Dairy farming comes ahead of all types of farming Dairy farming enjoys an excellent opinion positive for (90%). Wine growing (83%).Fruits and vegetables (82%). Fruits and vegetables (82%).Bovine meat (77%). Bovine meat (77%).Cereals (71%). Cereals (71%).And a less positive opinion. And a less positive opinion for porks and poultry (50%)

15 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Increased trust over the last 5 years Your trust in dairy farmers Would you say that over the past 10 years, the situation has improved gotten worse, or remained inchanged? Basis total 2006 : 1001 Basis total 2001 : 927 en % improvedunchangedgot worse

16 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Dairy farming : controlled modernity  Requires a real know-how (96%)  Is more and more a professional manager (87%)  Is a dynamique and entrepreneurial person (91%) Portrait of a real professional … And would you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all to say that the trade of dairy farming is a trade that… ?  He knows how to combine productivity and quality (85%)  He is eager to improve and modernise (87%) For each sentence, tell me if you agree totally, rather yes, rather no or not at all… … master of his life

17 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Are farmers who work a lot for a small revenue (84% ) Who deserve to get help to maintain farming and life in the country (87% ) A difficult trade and situation… And would you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all to say that the trade of dairy farming is a trade… ? And would you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all to say that dairy farmers… ? A trade with an uncertain future… only 1 french person out of 2, think it has a future (51%)

18 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD …but they are essential actors of the economy And would you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all to say that the trade of dairy farming is a trade… ?  An indispensable trade (76%)  Important actors of the economy(88%)  Important actors of the economy (88%)

19 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD An essential role to play … … at environmental and social levels…  To maintain rural life (90%)  For quality of life in France (80%)  To keep up the landscape (76%) And do you agree totally, rather yes, rather not or not at all with the following assesments? Dairy farmers play an essential role…

20 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Dairy markets : where do we stand ? Where are we going ? The changes in agricultural policies What prospects for the producers ? Outlook on the Dairy sector

21 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD A world gone crazy… World rates in $ Butter skim milk powder fat powder

22 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Why this situation ? The present situation results from the conjunction of 3 factors : -The increase in world demand - The drying out of the world market -The drop in the collection in Europe

23 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Will this last over the long/medium term ? The prospects of dairy consumption are related to : -The increase of the world’s wealth -The increase in population

24 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Annual growth of GDP (PIB) (%) WORLD DEVELOPED (pays développés) NORTH AMERICA WESTERN EUROPE OCEANIA DEVELOPED OTHER DEVELOPED TRANSITION DEVELOPING (pays en développement) AFRICA LATIN AMER & CARIB ASIA & PACIFIC LDC OTHER DEVELOPING Source FAO 2007

25 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD GROWTH OF POPULATION IN URBAN AREAS Source FAO 2007

26 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD This brings prospects of consumption growth for all products … Source FAO 2007 BeurreFromageLEPP. grasse

27 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD zone in slight surplus 4 zones in deficit 4 zones balanced or almost 1 zone strongly export oriented …with contrasting potential of evolution in the big blocks Self sufficiency in dairy products and level of apparent consumption per cqpita

28 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Today, the question is not whether the markets are expanding or not It is whether the milk producers in the world will be able to meet the demand On the markets level

29 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Very few regions can produce milk

30 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Few are growing

31 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD The key question is whether the emerging countries will be able to develop their dairy production It may be YES for Brazil and India It is NO for Russia, Ukraine and Argentina What about China ?

32 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Whatever happens, a large part of the world supply will be expected from the traditional dairy producing blocks : Europe, the USA and Oceania But in these countries, two new phenomenoms will interfere : the biofuels and the climatic change

33 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Development of Ethanol production in USA Source FAO 2007

34 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Development of Biofuels in Europe Source FAO 2007

35 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Climatic change is real in Australia Source ADF 2007

36 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Results of a survey over australian farmers : what will be the biggest challenge in the coming years ? Source ADF 2007

37 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Consequently, everyone anticipates an increase in the price of dairy products in the coming years With however a strong volatility due to the disappearance of agricultural policies

38 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD

39 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD It is necessarily bad May be it will fail… L’OMC / TWO

40 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD We are heading towards a total desabling of the PAC as the treaty of Rome set it There is no more regulation by the public authority The challenge is therefore to get organised at interprofessional level to palliate public pulling out Health check In summary

41 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Dairy markets : where do we stand ? Where are we going ? The changes in agricultural policies What prospects for the farmers ?

42 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Develop and keep the value in our branch Defend the french dairy model Prepare the future in terms of economic organisation The three fundamentals

43 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Keep the value in our branch « Mr President, this is not about your popularity, but the price increase of a camembert »

44 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Keep the value in our branch Dairy products. Our friends for life WE WILL NOT BE MADE A FOOL OF !

45 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Milk is a social model in itself It must be defended in political circles It’s the « European parliamentary day » 2008 event Defend our model

46 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Investment fund - Milk Institute - Contractualisation Prepare the future in terms of economic organisation

47 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD We are experiencing a radical change The interprofession will have a very big part to play The role of farmers tomorrow is at stake to day Conclusions

48 Yves Boutonnat for SAFE FOOD Thank you for your attention


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