Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

H.Calero Consulting Group, Inc. Puerto Rico 2014 - 2016 Consumers: A Moving Target.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "H.Calero Consulting Group, Inc. Puerto Rico 2014 - 2016 Consumers: A Moving Target."— Presentation transcript:

1 H.Calero Consulting Group, Inc. Puerto Rico Consumers: A Moving Target

2 ADJUNTAS AGUADA AGUAS BUENAS AIBONITO AÑASCO ARECIBO BARRANQUITAS CABO ROJO CAGUAS CAYEY CEIBA CIALES CIDRA COAMO COMERIO FLORIDA GUANICA GUAYAMA GURABO JAYUYA JUANA DIAZ JUNCOS LAJAS LARES LAS MARIAS MANATI MARICAO MAYAGÜEZ MOCA NAGUABO OROCOVIS PONCE RIO GRANDE SALINAS SAN GERMAN SAN JUAN SAN LORENZO SAN SEBASTIAN SANTA ISABEL TOA ALTA TOA BAJA UTUADO VEGA ALTA VEGA BAJA VILLALBA YABUCOA YAUCO Where is Puerto Rico today Gross Domestic Product 13 $103b Gross National Product 13$71b Population m Share of Manufacturing in GDP 47% Income Per Capita13 $17,413 Total Employment 7/ m Inflation 7/14 1.3% Unemployment rate 7/ % Participation rate 7/ % 2hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board, US Census Bureau, PR Department of Labor.

3 It is the worst recession Base year = 100 (year prior start of recession) Years 3hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board & index by HCCG

4 Less people, fewer jobs Total employment (Peak before recession=100) Months

5 Investment went down Investment as % of GNP Recession 5hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board

6 PR exports slowing down $Billion 6hcalero.com Trend

7 Banking performance Total assets down Total loans fall Profitability is low Bank delinquency -38% -22% $ B $ M $ B

8 The public debt challenge PR total public debt, $ billion As of March, 2014 $73.5b $14 b $47 b $24 b $49.2 b $15 b $4.1 b 8hcalero.com Source: PR Government Development Bank $5.0 b

9 The economy relies on consumption Consumption as % of GNP, 2013

10 Excludes mortgage debt Risk of personal debt as % of personal income, 2013

11 Bullet proof real consumption Base year = 100 (year prior start of recession) Years 11hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board & index by HCCG

12 Current recession & real consumption 2006 = 100 Services Durable Total Non durable Years 12hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board & index by HCCG

13 PR consumption & disposable income 2006 = 100 Disposable Income Consumption Years 13hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board & index by HCCG

14 Consumers’ debt $ million

15 Families’ financial assets plunged $ million 15hcalero.com

16 Falling homeowner’s equity PR house price index Total growth = -13%

17 PRSI continues in recession Monthly PRSI Sep 12, ,190 Loss of $14 billion in wealth 20,

18 PR posts mixed results HCCG quarterly economic Indices, 2Q 2014

19 Since 2005, PR’s population began shrinking

20 Less population while seniors explode PR population, million

21 The gates are open in PR Net migration (emigrants – inmigrants), 000s Est ’13–’ ’11–’

22 Young people are leaving PR Population by age group 2012, % EmigrantPR population Men Women Men Women Gen Y – those born between 1976 and 2000

23 Middle class leaving PR Median income, $000s Emigrants Total population Years 23hcalero.com Source: PR Institute of Statistics

24 Women are winning PR population by sex, % Source: US Census Bureau

25 Maturing Population Median Age Years

26 Millennials still prevail in 2013 Population by Age Group

27 Who are the biggest spenders? US Consumption Expenditures Survey hcalero.com

28 Which groups exhibit most growth US Consumption Expenditures Survey 2003/2013 % growth 28hcalero.com

29 Spending Patterns: <25 –They spend more on Housing, Transportation, and Food –Compared to other age groups, they spend more on eating out – Most growth from 2003 to 2013 has been in Housing and Insurance –Least growth has been on Transportation

30 This group spends the most It includes baby boomers who also spend the most on Housing, Transportation, and Food Compared to other age groups, they spend more on entertainment Most growth is in Healthcare Least growth is in Transportation Spending Patterns: 45-54

31 Spending Patterns: 65+ This group spends mostly on Housing, Transportation, Food, & Healthcare. Most growth is in insurance and pensions Least growth is on Food

32 Full recovery will take time… Forecast of US and PR real GNP growth FY Forecast 32hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board & HCCG PR Macroeconomic Model

33 Years to return to 2005 GNP Real GNP, $ million 13 years 33hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board & HCCG estimates

34 Years to return to 2005 GNP Real GNP, $ million 4 years 13 years 34hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board & HCCG estimates

35 Consumption & Income HistoryProjected % change, real Consumption1.5%2.3%2.4%2.2%1.1%1.6% Dispos. Income 1.9%-0.2%1.6%-0.5%-0.8%-0.4% Baseline 35hcalero.com Source: PR Planning Board & HCCG PR Macroeconomic Model

36 Growth of Internet users in PR Annual Growth = 14% 000s Source: World Bank, US Census estimates of population

37 Cell phones enhance mobility Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) Source: World Bank PR 7% annual growth 2012

38 Ecommerce continued growth Ecommerce as % of total sales 38hcalero.com Source: EPA

39 The rise of social network US social network users, million 39hcalero.com Source: Facebook & Twitter

40 How knowledge speeds decisions Without effective knowledge platform 40 Time Data gathering Analysis Response With effective knowledge platform Time Data gathering Analysis Response

41 416 Ponce de León Ave. suite 1111, San Juan PR T F Heidie Calero personally offers your clients, your management, or any special group, a live presentation on how the economy is performing. We use the latest available statistics and include our forecast on inflation, GNP growth, retail sales, and unemployment, among others. We use state-of-the-art presentation equipment, and professionally- designed slide shows. The meeting is then, interactive and lively. We guarantee the presentations are easy to understand, avoiding economic jargon, and illustrating graphically the most complex concepts. These conferences are free for the subscribers of our newsletter Puerto Rico Economic Pulse. Ask for a live presentation.


Download ppt "H.Calero Consulting Group, Inc. Puerto Rico 2014 - 2016 Consumers: A Moving Target."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google