1. Why environment regulation has created investment hiatus in the UK electricity generation industry - the way forward? By Dr Liz Warren e.warren@gre.ac.uk

2. Purpose of the presentation To examine the impact that targeted regulation has had on the UK electricity generation industry. To consider the future of the UK market. To briefly discuss the vast differences between the UK’s problems and Canada’s current predicaments.

3. Background to UK electricity generation industry 1990 – privatisation, the aim was to stand back and let the market drive investment. 2001 – Introduction of NETA (New Electricity Trading Arrangements), electricity was now traded as any other commodity. From 2001 there have been a significant number of environmental regulations introduced

4. Environmental regulation since 2001 DriversRegulations TargetsGlobal (Kyoto), EU (Various), UK (Climate change Act 2008) EmissionsEuropean Union Emission Trading Scheme (EUETS), Waste Incineration Directive (WID), Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD), UK National Emissions Reduction Plan (NERP), Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) EMRContracts for difference (CfD) and Capacity Market. EnergyRenewable obligations banding, Renewable obligations, Feed in Tariff (FiT) and Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI). EfficiencyClimate Change Levy (CCL), Carbon Price Support (CPS), Green deal and Energy Companies Obligation (ECO), Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC), Energy Efficiency Scheme, Building regulation, Code of sustainable homes (CSH).

5. Competition

6. Generation fuel portfolio 2000-2012 Source: Dukes, 2013

7. A brief indication of what has been happening in the past two years “In 2012, private sector investment in the energy sector rose to £11.6b, representing about 10% of UK capital investment in 2012, or the equivalent to building 20 Olympic stadiums. This was more than private sector investment in transport or public investment in health or education.” (E&Y, 2013)

8. A brief indication of what has been happening in the past two years “Renewable energy is an important component of energy sector investment. Between January 2010 and April 2013, £29b in renewable investments was announced, expected to support 30,000 jobs.” (E&Y, 2013)

9. A brief indication of what has been happening in the past two years “Energy sector companies have proposed investing in enough additional combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) plants and nuclear power stations to power 25– to30 million homes (27 gigawatts),11 over the next decade, but many projects are awaiting Government policy decisions before committing to construction.” (E&Y, 2013)

10. So what?

11. Source OFGEM, 2013

12. What’s the story? Investment Security of supply Regulation

13. What’s the story? Market led investment No legal requirement to ensure security of supply Increased regulation to encourage renewables – yet no secure future policy

14. Typical investment 1000 MW investment (in a gas plant, CCGT) would cost approx. £600 million with a life expectancy of approx. 25 years -this would supply 800,000 households (Warren & Seal, 2014). Takes between 4-7 years to plan and get permit (section 36) These investments are to compete against renewables projects that have financial incentives. Too many uncertainties

15. Investment mix in the UK Targets: 15% renewables by 2020 (Pollitt & Haney, 2013) –Going well due to financial incentives ROCS and in future CfD. However, the remaining 85% of the portfolio needs consideration.

16. What has regulation achieved? Transparent policy and regulation in the renewables sector has reduced uncertainty and increased investment in ‘renewables’ (Mani & Dingra, 2013) –UK is now the principal offshore wind market in the the EU. However, renewable regulation has created an overall uncompetitive energy market (Helm, 2014)

17. Real Options

18. When the companies within the UK electricity generation industry use investment appraisal they have to add a large risk margin because expected future policy can impact on profitability, this is why the UK is finding it difficult to attract capital (White et al, 2013).

19. The future of the UK in this sector White paper (2011) accepts there is a need for change – the government have finally accepted they can’t leave this any longer to deal with – if they don’t blackouts are a significant possibility. Therefore they started the Energy Market Reform (EMR).

20. EMR – will it work? Aims to target both renewables and non- renewables and provide more certainty to the market. –CfD Contracts for Difference –CPS Carbon price support –CM Capacity market –EPS Emissions performance standards

21. So what is the result in the UK Positive – we are increasing the % of the portfolio relating to renewables. Although the UK public is questioning if this is an ideology we can currently afford! Negative – investment hiatus has created a great strain on the system – questioning security of supply for 2014-15.

22. So what is happening in Canada – is it the same experience? CanadaUK Country has an abundant and diverse set of resources Relies heavily on importing resources – especially now with increased carbon targets Federal and provincial governments overseeing regulation National and super national governments overseeing regulation One of the largest energy exporters – issues e.g. Fracking in the USA. Leading off shore wind market in Europe. 2 nd Largest reserves of crude oil (mainly in Alberta), issues of expansion of pipelines e.g. Keystone XL

23. So what is happening in Canada – is it the same experience? CanadaUK Net exporterNet importer GDP contribution from the energy sector 6.8% (www.energy.ca) GDP contribution from the energy sector 3.5% (DECC, 2013) 16% total investment to the economy (www.energy.ca) 10.1% total investment to the economy (DECC, 2013)

24. Conclusion The UK has signed up for high targets to reduce emissions. Providing financial incentives for renewables but leaving the investment for the remaining market to be market led (but with no supporting policy on the future of the market). Theory and practice not considered…..politics V real options.

25. Bibliography As per chapter provided and: CAPP (2014) Commentary. www.capp.ca accessed 1 st March 2014www.capp.ca DOS (2014_ New Keystone XL Pipeline Application. www.keystonepipeline-xl.state.gov accessed 1 st March 2014www.keystonepipeline-xl.state.gov Dukes (2013) Digest of United Kingdoms energy Statistics 2013. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/digest-of- united-kingdom-energy-statistics-dukes-2013-printed-version-excluding-cover-pages accessed 10th March 2014https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/digest-of- united-kingdom-energy-statistics-dukes-2013-printed-version-excluding-cover-pages Ofgem (2013) Electricity capacity assessment report 2013. https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/electricity- capacity-assessment-report-2013 accessed 10th March 2014https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/electricity- capacity-assessment-report-2013 Ernst & Young (2013) Powering the UK. Energy Uk. www.energy-uk.org/energy-industry/powering-the-UK.html accessed 2nd March 2014www.energy-uk.org/energy-industry/powering-the-UK.html Fertal, C., Bahn, O., Vaillancourt, K. Waaub, J. (2013) Canadian energy and climate polices: A SWOT analysis in search of fedral / provincial coherence. Energy Policy. 63, pp 1139-1150 Murray, A. Interview. Director of Olefins Business Development at NOVA chemicals – Canada.