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Prof. Alex `Sandy’ Pentland MIT Human Dynamics Lab http://hd.media.mit.edu
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Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland Complexity is simple look at the generating process, not the leaves Big Data, Small Problems use big data to discover parameters and boundaries Stone Soup & Big Data pooling data with users to benefit everyone
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Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved Corporate Information Flow Complex!
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Copyright alex pentland 2010, all rights reserved Nature 1/09 Big Data Says that Humans are Really Pretty Simple Nature, 1/09 `People have been studying this for a long time, but Alex is raising it up to another level.’
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Two Minds Nobel Prize winners Kahneman and Simon: Humans have two minds Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved Fast Parallel Automatic Associative Slow Serial Controlled Rule-based Habitual (System 1) Attentive (system 2) Conceptual Representations Past, Present, Future Can be evoked by language Content Process
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The Sociometric Badge captures interactions with others Proximity Location Face-to-face interactions Social signals NOT words Technology Review Top 10 Emerging Technologies Sociometric Solutions Organizations for Humans
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Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved Science, 9/2010 204 groups, size 2 – 5 participants Three Factors: 1. Total Number of contributions 2. Equality of contribution rate 3. Amount of (backchannel) signaling Group Performance Governed by Ancient Patterns
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Copyright alex pentland 2011 BAC Call Center Average Call Handle Time Cohesion of Face-to-Face Network Productivity from to simple patterns Waber, Olguin, Pentland $15M / year savings….. Just by changing coffee breaks
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Creativity: discovery and integration Creative groups change between star-shaped network (exploration) and cohesive network (integration) …like bees 89% accurate identification of `top creative days’ by socialization and activity measurements (sociometric badge) Copyright 2011 Alex Pentland Tripathi, Burleson, Gloor, Pentland
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Copyright alex pentland 2011 Olguin, Waber, Kim, Gloor, Pentland Simple Patterns Account for 40% to 60% of Performance Harvard Business Review: Breakthrough Idea of the Year
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Out In The Wild Complex! Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland
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Big Data Says that Humans Are Really Pretty Simple Copyright Alex Pentland, 2011 Decisions made by Exposure not friends, information, or arguments Accounts for 75% – 85% of variance
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Me (Individual 1) Democrat, but 0.50 to switch to Republican 100% Democratic Individual 2 100% Republican Individual 3 Social Influence: Like Immune System Pan, Altshuler, Pentland
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14 Using sensors in smart phones to obtain different type of social networks. Call Network Proximity Network Friendship Network Co-location Network Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved FunF Open Source Sensing http://funf.media.mit.edu Aharony, Pan, Pentland
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Many networks influence conscious decisions Pan, Aharony, Pentland Copyright alex pentland, 2011 Predicting What You Will Buy
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Big Data and Tribes Copyright alex pentland 2011 The Next Google …cover Newsweek
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Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland Patterns of Buying The Next Google … cover Newsweek iPhone blackberry
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Copyright 2009, 2010 Alex Pentland Patterns of Health The Next Google … cover Newsweek HIV diabetes
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Me (Individual 1) Democrat, but 0.50 to switch to Republican 100% Democratic Individual 2 100% Republican Individual 3 Shaping Behavior: Social Influence Gompertz function, like immune system Pan, Altshuler, Pentland
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Copyright alex pentland 2011 Mani, Rahwan, Pentland Twice as efficient as standard incentive mechanisms Leveraging Social Influence
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Predicted Proportion Of Population Changing Behavior Quantitative Shaping validated on stock purchases, app downloads Treatment Cost Altshuler, Pan, Pentland
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Personal Data & Privacy “Personal data is the new oil of the internet and the new currency of the digital world.” —Meglena Kuneva European Consumer Commissioner
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Stone Soup & Big Data The Evolution of A New Consensus Copyright 2011 Alex Pentland FTC, Commerce, White House, EU,… Microsoft, Google, Cisco, Qualcomm… Verizon, ATT, FT, BT, Bharti…… Mastercharge, Equifax, … ACLU, OpenID,Infocard,…. Harvard Law, MIT Media Lab, …
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My Data Personal Data Stores Bank Data Financial Data Bank Data Mobility and Call Data Legal Data Medical Data
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Trust Securely make offers to individuals Personal Data Store Personal Data Store Personal Data Store Personal Data Store Personal Data Store Personal Data Store OIX, NSTIC, EU UK: mydata Vets: blue button Copyright alex pentland 2011 Privacy Market
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USE CASE 1
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USE CASE 1 CONTINUED
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`Optimal’ Anonymous Market Discovery: AKA Instant Groupon USE CASE 2 40 th Anniversary of the Internet Grand Challenge Pickard, Pan, Rahwan,Cebrian,Madan,Crane,Pentland
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The Bottom Line Big Data and Simple Behavior Models can make the complex simple We are moving to a data-driven world, make sure you secure the data you need! Copyright alex pentland 2011, all rights reserved
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Copyright alex pentland 2011 Forbes, 8/10, Mining Human Behavior http://media.mit.edu/~pentland http://idcubed.org pentland@mit.edu
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