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Pathways through vocational education and training for school leavers David D Curtis 10 th Annual AVETRA Conference Evolution, Revolution or Status Quo?

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Presentation on theme: "Pathways through vocational education and training for school leavers David D Curtis 10 th Annual AVETRA Conference Evolution, Revolution or Status Quo?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Pathways through vocational education and training for school leavers David D Curtis 10 th Annual AVETRA Conference Evolution, Revolution or Status Quo? Victoria University 11-13 April 2007

2 Acknowledgement and Disclaimer The research being reported was funded and commissioned by the Department of Education Science and Training (DEST) The research is part of the LSAY program, a joint DEST / ACER initiative This presentation deals with some aspects of the study, which is still in progress The views expressed are the author’s and are not those of DEST

3 Outline Participation in VET programs VET Program types: Apprenticeships; Traineeships; Non-Apprenticeship courses Completion of VET programs Outcomes following VET programs Employment status; Weekly earnings and hours worked; Benefits to program completion

4 Data and Methods Data sources Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) Cohort sampled in 1995 (Y95) in Year 9 13,613 participants; 2 stage stratified sample VET sector courses commenced by 2001 Outcomes assessed in 2004 (Age = 23 years) Attrition: 2001, n=6,876; 2004, n=4,660 Limitations Study restricted to young people in transition (Much VET provision for older workers) Methods Cross-tabulations and logistic regression

5 Definitions Australian Apprenticeships Combine practical work with structured training and lead to nationally recognised qualifications Traditional apprenticeships in engineering and related technologies, electrical and electronics, building, some service industries Traineeships now cover many industry groups, and are often of shorter duration than apprenticeships Non-apprenticeship courses Most often delivered through TAFE institutes

6 Variables and Methods Variables Individual and family background Acquired characteristics at school Progress through post-school programs Cross tabulations To compare the characteristics of the young people who pursue the various pathways Multinomial logistic regression To examine what distinguishes young people in the major pathways from those who choose no post- school education or training

7 Results 1: Demographics No PSSApprnt’shpTraineeshipNon-app VET Uni Sex Female223112747 Male252082135 Indig.St. Indigenous3014242522 Non-Indig231292542 Location Metro211072646 Regional2614122137 Remote2514 2434

8 Results 2: Family Background No PSSApprnt’shpTraineeshipNon-app VET Uni Parent Occ Prof & para16872059 Manag.1811102447 Clerical2211 2640 Trades2618102532 Machine op307113132 Labourer2810122633 Parent Ed. Inc. sec2911 2532 Comp. sec2511122538 Trade2116102538 Post sec. 13871964

9 Results 3: School Factors No PSSApprnt’shpTraineeshipNon-app VET Uni Achieve Qtl Lowest3516113115 Low-mid2613112932 Mid-high1911 2249 Highest13761568 Schl sector Govt2713112633 Catholic16972453 Independent13761966

10 Results 4: School Factors No PSSApprnt’shpTraineeshipNon-app VET Uni Yr Level Yr 10422914221 Yr 11412514244 Yr 1218692551 VETiS No VETiS18782254 VETiS2915123122

11 Multinomial Logistic Regression No PSS App’shp Tr’shp TAFE Uni Female Male Post-sec Trade Comp sec Inc. sec Metro Regional Rural Response variable Predictor variables SexParent EdLocation a b c d

12 Demographics Odds Apprnt’shpTraineeshipNon-app VETUni Sex (cf Female) Male5.220.570.630.57 Indigenous (cf Non-indig) Indigenous2.042.650.961.73 Location (cf Metro) Regional1.531.210.710.80 Rural1.211.600.910.94

13 Background Odds Apprnt’shpTraineeshipNon-app VETUni Parent Ed (cf Higher ed) Inc sec0.590.490.480.43 Comp sec0.680.700.620.55 Trade0.930.680.700.58 Achievement Year 9 Reading0.790.890.951.32 Mathematics1.191.120.981.85

14 Program Completion Apprenticeships 84% of commencers complete (m 87%, f 60%) Traineeships 83% of commencers complete (m 81%, f 84%) Non-apprenticeship VET 73% completion, but… 83% for lower certificates 78% for higher certificates 65% for diploma programs No influence of individual demographic factors Substantial effects by field of study Caution These completion rates are higher than those reported by NCVER based on AVETMISS data

15 Reasons for Attrition Apprenticeships Conflict in the workplace Not liking the type of work Health or personal reasons Traineeships Health or personal reasons Find better work Dissatisfaction with off-the-job training Non-apprenticeship VET courses Wanted to find job or apprenticeship Lost interest Course expectations unmet

16 Outcomes Outcomes investigated were: 1.Employment status (at 2004 interview) FT employment; FT study; PT employment; Unemployed; NILF 2.Weekly gross earnings and hours worked Outcomes were assessed by 1.Program type 2.Completion status

17 Employment Status By program type FTSFTWPTWUnEmpNILF No PSS269118 App’shp291412 Tr’shp281726 Non-app VET 575947 All VET377957

18 Education & Labour Market Status 2004 SexProgramFTSFTWPTWUnempNILF FemaleNo PSS26014718 Appshp3721528 Trshp376848 NAV570114 Total46712513 MaleNo PSS278894 Appshp194211 Trshp287605 NAV482752 Total284653

19 Labour Market Success Model MalesFemales Yr 9 Literacy1.001.08 Yr 9 Numeracy1.001.22 Location (cf Metro) Regional1.450.53 Rural1.180.56 Yr 12 status (cf Incomp) Completed Yr 122.772.43 Program type (cf No PSS) Apprenticeship11.040.65 Traineeship1.932.32 Non-app VET1.691.78

20 Experience of Unemployment


22 Earnings and Hours Worked

23 Job Satisfaction

24 Benefits to Completion FTWPTW MaleFemaleMaleFemale No PSS7860814 App’shpInc8575124 Comp9670122 Tr’shpInc8968118 Comp877868 Non-app VET Inc76591011 Comp8473610

25 Earnings Benefit to Completion

26 Results: Summary Substantial differences in post-school education and training pathway by: Family SES; Sex; Country of birth; Indigenous status; Location; Apprenticeship pathway is important for: Males; School non-completers; Regional youth; Traineeship pathway is important for: Females; Indigenous youth; Rural youth; Non-apprenticeship VET pathway provides equitable access on most characteristics. Higher education is accessed by: Females; high achievers; high SES; OS NESB;

27 Results: Summary School Achievement Both reading literacy and numeracy are related to post-school participation Numeracy achievement has a stronger effect School sector Past research has reported a strong effect Recent multilevel analyses suggest this is mediated by peer group effects

28 Results: Summary All VET pathways are associated with more favourable outcomes than no post-school study Increased FT work; Reduced unemployment but variable earnings benefits Apprenticeships have the most favourable outcomes, but these appear to relate to fields of training/work and are gender-related Traineeships work well for young women Benefits to Non-app VET are less pronounced cf apprenticeships, but typically Non-app VET courses do not require labour market experience

29 Implications Skills Formation Young people who do no post-school training are at risk of marginalisation Not all pathways are equally productive for all young people Apprenticeships important for males – labour market segmentation Traineeships important for females Higher education participation is related to ability and aspiration. Aspiration (and intention) mediate achievement and language background (Khoo & Ainley, 2005)

30 Implications Advice for Young People Young people form school completion and post- school intentions by early secondary school Career decisions are based on some good and some poor information (Beavis et al., 2005) Poor information requires remediation Some pathways are more promising than others for sub-groups of young people Advice on the outcomes of alternative pathways could be provided explicitly during early secondary schooling

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