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A Comprehensive Review of Japan’s Energy Policy - Towards Simultaneous Achievement of 3Es - OCT 2001 ANRE/METI.

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Presentation on theme: "A Comprehensive Review of Japan’s Energy Policy - Towards Simultaneous Achievement of 3Es - OCT 2001 ANRE/METI."— Presentation transcript:

1 A Comprehensive Review of Japan’s Energy Policy - Towards Simultaneous Achievement of 3Es - OCT 2001 ANRE/METI

2 Kyoto Commitment -▲ 6% of GHG emissions below 1990 level - Stabilization of CO2 emissions at 1990 level ▲ 2.5% ▲ 3.7% + 2.0% ▲ 1.8% ▲ 6.0% Emission Reduction of CO2, CH4 and N2O 0% : CO2 from Energy Origin ▲ 0.5% : Emission Reduction of CH4, N2O etc ▲ 2.0% : Innovative Technologies etc Sinks(Land Use Change and Forestry) HFC, PFC, SF6 Kyoto Mechanism ( Emission Trading, J I, CDM ) Total Page 1

3 Page 2 Long-Term Outlook ‘ 98 for Final Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions

4 Substantial Changes since 98 Outlook Page 3 ★ Change of Lifestyle - Rapid Increase of Energy Consumption in Residential and Passenger Transport Sector ★ Deregulation of Energy Industry ・ Increased Cost Sensitivity and Conflict among 3Es ・ Rapid Growth of Coal Power ★ Delay of Nuclear Power Development Program ・ JCO Accident in Tokai village (Sept 1999) ★ Stagnant Growth of New and Renewable Energy

5 Indices on Final Energy Consumption by Sector Page 4

6 Comprehensive Review of Long-Term Supply and Demand Outlook (1) Page 5 ★ Policy Target Simultaneous Achievement of 3Es ◇ Energy Security –Reduction of dependency on imported oil ◇ Environmental Protection –Stabilization of CO2 emissions from energy origin at 1990 level ◇ Economic Efficiency –Stable economic growth and promotion of deregulation to improve economic efficiency

7 Comprehensive Review of Long-Term Supply and Demand Outlook (2) Page 6 ★ “ BAU ” (Business As Usual) Case: ◇ Without any policies to achieve Kyoto Target ★ “ Base ” Case: ◇ With energy conservation policies introduced after COP3 -Industry Sector Keidanren Voluntary Action Program -Residential Commercial Sector Top Runner Program for 11 types of household electric appliances Energy efficiency standard for house and buildings -Transport Sector Top Runner Program for automobiles and light and medium trucks Enhancing freight efficiency, modal changes from truck to railways Intelligent Transport Systems

8 Voluntary Action Program of Keidanren ☆ Steel Industry ▲ 10% Energy Consumption below 1990 by 2010 ☆ Chemical Industry ▲ 10% Energy Intensity below 1990 by 2010 ☆ Paper and Pulp Industry ▲ 10% Energy Intensity below 1990 by 2010 Page 7

9 Top Runner Program Page 8 16km/l 14km/l 12km/l 10km/l Fuel Efficiency ( km/l ) New energy efficiency standard Old energy efficiency standard 16km/l 14km/l 12km/l 10km/l Fuel Efficiency ( km/l )

10 Targets for Energy Efficiency Air conditioner(heating & cooling) Air conditioner(cooling only) Television receivers Video cassette recorders Fluorescent lamp luminaries Copying machines Computers Magnetic disc units Gasoline-fueled passenger vehicles Gasoline-fueled freight vehicles (2.5 tons or below) Diesel powered passenger vehicles Diesel powered freight vehicles (2.5 tons or below) Refrigerators ※ Base year: 1997(automobiles: 1995) 2004/07 63% % % % % % % % % % % % % Target Improvement year of efficiency ※ Page 9

11 Page 10 Comparison of BAU and Base Case Mtoe: Million tons of oil equivalent FEC: Final energy consumption (from '90) 2020 FEC; Mtoe BAU case ( + 31%) -- ↓44Mtoe BASE case ( + 17%) 393 CO2; Mt-C BAU case ( + 21%) -- ↓40Mt-C BASE case ( + 7%) 321 ↓20Mt-C Policy target (± 0%) →Need more 20Mt-C reductions in addition to painful reduction of 40Mt-C!

12 Final Energy Consumption – Base Case Page Mtoe Residential Passenger Commercial Freight Industry Mtoe (from'90) Residential (+ 38%) Passenger (+ 27%) Commercial (+ 32%)* Freight (+ 7%) Industry (+ 3%)* Total (+ 15%) * Including Non-energy use

13 Total Primary Energy Supply – Base Case Page 12 Mtoe (from'90) Renewables (+ 40%) Nuclear (+ 90%) Hydro & Geo (- 6%) Natural Gas (+ 54%) Oil (- 9%) Coal (+ 56%) Total (+ 18%)

14 Additional Policies and Measures to achieve Policy Target Page 13 Need to Reduce Another 20 Mt-C to achieve Kyoto Target 1- Further Promotion of Energy Conservation 2- Further Promotion of New and Renewable Energy 3- Fuel Switching ( mainly in Power Sector )

15 Further Promotion of Energy Conservation Page 14 Further conservation of 6.46 Mtoe under Policy Case, in addition to Mtoe under Base Case. - Major energy conservation policy measures and effects - Mtoe "Base case" "Policy case ” Industry sector18.59Base Keidanren voluntary plan of action etc Promotion of efficient industrial furnace Residential & Commercial sector12.96Base Expansion of Top Runner Program ard for appliances Efficiency standard for house & buildings Promotion of efficient appliances Promotion of HEMS; Home energy manag. sys Promotion of BEMS; Business energy manag Transportation sector14.71Base Expansion and Acceleration of Top Runner Program Promotion of NGVs, Hybrid Vs, FCVs etc Promotion of ITS technology application Cross sector measures - Promotion of efficient boiler, laser, light - Base+0.92 Total energy consumption reduction46.26Base+6.46

16 Further Introduction of New & Renewable Energy Page 15 ★ Further introduction of 9.53Mtoe under Policy Case, in addition to 8.14 Mtoe under Base Case. ★ Introduction of market expansion measures in electricity sector such as Renewable Portfolio Standard - New and renewable energy policy targets at Mtoe 1999 "Base case" "Policy case ” Solar energy Base+3.91 (5.15) Photo-voltaic cell generation (1.09) Solar heat use (4.06) Wind power generation Base+0.94 (1.24) Biomass energy Base+0.95 (5.50) Biomass fired power generation (0.31) Biomass fuel use (0.62) Black liquer; Pulp & paper waste (4.57) Waste materials energy Base+3.27 (5.24) Waste fired power generation (5.11) Waste & residue derived fuel use (0.13) Wasted energy recovery Base+0.45 (0.54) Total Base+9.53(17.67)

17 Fuel Switching Page Further Promotion of Energy Conservation 6.46 Mtoe = 6.0 Mt-C 2. Further Promotion of New and Renewable Energy 9.53 Mtoe = 9.0 Mt-C 3. Required Fuel Switching – 9.0 = 5.0 Mt-C ★ Fuel Switching: ◇ Mainly in Power Sector (From Coal to Natural Gas) ◇ Need to address Cost Differential between Coal and Other Fuels ◇ P&M for Fuel Switching: - Economic Instrument (Tax, Emissions Trading, Subsidy) - Regulation - Voluntary Action etc.

18 Power Sector after Fuel Switching for 5.O Mt-C Page 17 Fuel Mix of Power sector in 2010 assuming certain economic instruments to achieve 5.0 Mtoe reduction (e.g. making generation cost of coal power 0.3 yen/kwh=25$/t-C more expensive than that of natural gas power) Base2010 Policy TWh Renewable Nuclear Hydro. & Geo. Oil Natural gas Coal Electricity power generation 2010 TWh Base Policy Renewable Nuclear Hydro.& Geo Oil Natural gas Coal Total * additional units (instead of 16-20)

19 Policy Case: Conclusions(1) Page Mtoe Base Policy Renewable Nuclear Hydro.& Geo Natural gas Oil Coal Total CO2 emission

20 Policy Case: Conclusions(2) Page Mtoe Base Policy Residential Passenger Commercial Freight Industry Total

21 Nuclear Moratorium Option Page 20 ★ Policy Case: Additional Nuclear Power Plants towards 2010 ★ Moratorium Option: No Additional Nuclear Power plants towards Coal power substituting nuclear -Under Base Case, 40 Mt-C CO2 emissions above 1990 level (instead of 20 Mt-C) -Need of another 20 Mt-C of fuel switching -Very painful economic measures (e.g. Carbon tax of 250$/t-C) -Severe economic impact Gross Output of Industry Sector ▲ 4.2% below Base Case Household Consumption ▲ 3.9% below Base Case → 0% GDP growth from (instead of 2% under Base Case and Policy Case) ★ Nuclear Moratorium Option can not be chosen as a viable option


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