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Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou July 30, 2013 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 1 32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE.

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Presentation on theme: "Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou July 30, 2013 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 1 32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE."— Presentation transcript:

1 Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou July 30, 2013 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 1 32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE JULY 28-31 · ANCHORAGE AK, USA

2 1.Introduction2.Methodologies3.Results and Discussion4.ConclusionsReferences 2

3  China’s five-year plans are a series of social and economic development initiatives.  SO 2 reduction targets and results in the previous five-year plans. Source: NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (2000-2012) 3 10 th (2001-2005)11 th (2006-2010) SO 2 reduction targets10% below 2000 levels10% below 2005 levels SO 2 reduction results27.8% above 2000 levels14.3% below 2005 levels Industrial emissions meeting discharge standards79.4%97.9% Industrial desulfurization rate33.5%66.0%

4 SO 2 emissions of China (1992-2010) Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (1990-2012), NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (1998-2012) 4 ↑27.8%↓14.3% 66.0% 33.5% Industrial desulfurization rate

5 SO 2 emissions and desulfurization rates by provinces of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 5 Above mean desulfurization rate

6 SO 2 emissions by sectors of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 6

7 Industrial desulfurization rates by sectors of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 7 Above mean desulfurization rate

8 8 China’s SO 2 emission reduction target in the 12th Five-Year Plan Source: State Council of China, The Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction During the 12th Five-Year Plan Period 3 provinces are allowed to increase SO 2 emissions. SO 2 emissions limit in 2015: 20.9 Mt, 8% below 2010 levels. 0.2 Mt is reserved for SO 2 emission trading pilot projects among regions and enterprises.

9 9 Integrated assessment model framework Two-level CES production function Technological learning

10  SO 2 emission calculation ◦ SO2 r : SO 2 emissions in specific region. ◦ Q rse : Energy thermal consumptions in specific region, sector and energy source. ◦ S re : Sulfur content in specific region and energy source. ◦ α re : SO 2 emission factor in specific region and energy source. ◦ δ re : Desulfurization rate in specific region and energy source.  Objective function ◦ UTIL: Discounted consumption. ◦ C: Annual consumption. ◦ udr: Utility discount rate. 10

11  Four GDP growth scenarios ◦ planned growth 12 th Five-Year Plan: 7% ◦ GDP growth scenarios: 5%, 7%, 9% and 11%  Five possible desulfurization rates ◦ desulfurization rate in 2010: 66.0% ◦ desulfurization rate scenarios: 50%, 60% 70%, 80% and 90% ◦ given exogenously due to the uncertainty of the popularizing rates of desulfurization equipment  All the scenarios are simulated: ◦ in view of China’s current economic development and energy consumption ◦ considering relevant environmental protection and greenhouse gas emission reduction 11

12 GDP growth Scenarios Primary energy consumption Electricity generation Gross SO 2 emissions Household SO 2 emissions (%)(Mtoe)(TWh)(Mt) 5%2673530660.6 2.1 7%2818589365.0 2.2 9%3001643469.0 2.2 11%3405819380.7 2.3 12 SO 2 emission scenarios of China in 2015  7% growth scenario reduces 14.0% of energy consumption per unit of GDP, slightly lower than the target of 16% set in the 12 th Five-Year Plan.  The household SO 2 emissions show little change due to the single emission source, namely the direct use of coal.  SO 2 emitted by household use of petroleum gas/natural gas is ignored in this study.

13 SO 2 emission reduction scenarios 13 5% growth 7% growth 11% growth 9% growth

14 Industrial desulfurization rate needed for 12 th 5-year plan targets 14 Desulfurization rates should be raised above 70% due to the uncertainty of GDP growth. The popularization of wet-type SO 2 scrubbers and improvement of the environmental emission standards play an important role in the achievement of SO 2 control target by 2015

15 SO 2 emissions by power generation and other sectors, and SO 2 emissions intensity of power generation 15

16 This study makes a comprehensive assessment of energy related SO 2 emissions control in China’s 12 th Five-Year Plan based on a large scale non-linear integrated assessment model. 1.There is a relative large potential for China to reduce SO 2 emissions technologically and the popularization of wet-type SO 2 scrubbers and improvement of the environmental emission standards play an important role in the achievement of SO 2 control target by 2015. 2.The improvement in energy consumption structure contributes to SO 2 and other energy related emission controls effectively, as well as the sustainable development of energy. 3.The thresholds of desulfurization for different growth scenarios, namely 5%, 7%, 9% and 11% scenarios, to achieve the SO 2 emission control target are presented in this study, as 69.9%, 72.1%, 73.8% and 77.8, respectively. 4.Future environmental policy should concentrate on the provinces which emit SO 2 seriously, like Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Henan, or relevant industrial sectors such as electric & heat power, ferrous metals and nonmetal mineral sectors. 16

17 BP (2013), "BP Statistical Review of World Energy", June, 2013. BP Publishing. IEA (2012), "Energy Balances of non-OECD Countries 2012 Edition" OECD Publishing. Kanada, M., Dong, L., Fujita, T., Fujii, M., Inoue, T., Hirano, Y., Togawa, T., et al. (2013). Regional disparity and cost-effective SO 2 pollution control in China: A case study in 5 mega-cities. Energy Policy, (In Press). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.105 Kaneko S, Fujii H, Sawazu N and Fujikura R (2010), "Financial allocation strategy for the regional pollution abatement cost of reducing sulfur dioxide emissions in the thermal power sector in China", Energy Policy. Vol. 38(5), pp. 2131 - 2141. Lin B, Jiang Z and Zhang P (2011), "Allocation of sulphur dioxide allowance – An analysis based on a survey of power plants in Fujian province in China ", Energy. Vol. 36(5), pp. 3120 - 3129. Lin W, Xu X, Ma Z, Zhao H, Liu X and Wang Y (2012), "Characteristics and recent trends of sulfur dioxide at urban, rural, and background sites in North China: Effectiveness of control measures", Journal of Environmental Sciences. Vol. 24(1), pp. 34 - 49. Lu Z, Streets DG, Zhang Q, Wang S, Carmichael GR, Cheng YF, Wei C, Chin M, Diehl T and Tan Q (2010), "Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000", Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Vol. 10(13), pp. 6311-6331. MEP (2003), Emission standard of air pollutants for thermal power plants (GB 13223-2003), Beijing: China Environmental Science Press. MEP (2011), Emission standard of air pollutants for thermal power plants (GB 13223-2011), Beijing: China Environmental Science Press. NBS, China Statistical Yearbook (1990-2012), China Statistics Press. NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (1998-2012), China Statistics Press. SCC (State Council of China), (2011), The Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction During the 12 th Five-Year Plan Period. Schreifels JJ, Fu Y and Wilson EJ (2012), "Sulfur dioxide control in China: policy evolution during the 10th and 11th Five-Year Plans and lessons for the future", Energy Policy. Vol. 48(0), pp. 779 - 789. Su, X., Zhou, W., Nakagami, K., Ren, H., & Mu, H. (2012). Capital stock-labor-energy substitution and production efficiency study for China. Energy Economics, 34(4), 1208–1213. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.11.002. US EPA (2003). Air Pollution Technology Fact Sheet, Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) - Wet, Spray Dry, and Dry Scrubbers. EPA-452/F-03-034. United States Environmental Protection Agency. http://www.epa.gov/ttncatc1/products.html#aptecfacts [Accessed June 1, 2013]. http://www.epa.gov/ttncatc1/products.html#aptecfacts Wang X, Liu H, Pang J, Carmichael G, He K, Fan Q, Zhong L, Wu Z and Zhang J (2013), "Reductions in sulfur pollution in the Pearl River Delta region, China: Assessing the effectiveness of emission controls", Atmospheric Environment. Vol. 76, pp. 113 - 124. Xu, Y. (2011). Improvements in the Operation of SO 2 Scrubbers in China’s Coal Power Plants. Environmental Science & Technology, 45(2), 380–385. doi:10.1021/es1025678. Zhao B, Wang S, Wang J, Fu JS, Liu T, Xu J, Fu X and Hao J (2013), "Impact of national NOx and SO2 control policies on particulate matter pollution in China ", Atmospheric Environment. Vol. 77(0), pp. 453 - 463. 17

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