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Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou July 30, 2013 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 1 32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE.

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Presentation on theme: "Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou July 30, 2013 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 1 32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE."— Presentation transcript:

1 Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou July 30, 2013 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 1 32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE JULY · ANCHORAGE AK, USA

2 1.Introduction2.Methodologies3.Results and Discussion4.ConclusionsReferences 2

3  China’s five-year plans are a series of social and economic development initiatives.  SO 2 reduction targets and results in the previous five-year plans. Source: NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment ( ) 3 10 th ( )11 th ( ) SO 2 reduction targets10% below 2000 levels10% below 2005 levels SO 2 reduction results27.8% above 2000 levels14.3% below 2005 levels Industrial emissions meeting discharge standards79.4%97.9% Industrial desulfurization rate33.5%66.0%

4 SO 2 emissions of China ( ) Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook ( ), NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment ( ) 4 ↑27.8%↓14.3% 66.0% 33.5% Industrial desulfurization rate

5 SO 2 emissions and desulfurization rates by provinces of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 5 Above mean desulfurization rate

6 SO 2 emissions by sectors of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 6

7 Industrial desulfurization rates by sectors of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 7 Above mean desulfurization rate

8 8 China’s SO 2 emission reduction target in the 12th Five-Year Plan Source: State Council of China, The Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction During the 12th Five-Year Plan Period 3 provinces are allowed to increase SO 2 emissions. SO 2 emissions limit in 2015: 20.9 Mt, 8% below 2010 levels. 0.2 Mt is reserved for SO 2 emission trading pilot projects among regions and enterprises.

9 9 Integrated assessment model framework Two-level CES production function Technological learning

10  SO 2 emission calculation ◦ SO2 r : SO 2 emissions in specific region. ◦ Q rse : Energy thermal consumptions in specific region, sector and energy source. ◦ S re : Sulfur content in specific region and energy source. ◦ α re : SO 2 emission factor in specific region and energy source. ◦ δ re : Desulfurization rate in specific region and energy source.  Objective function ◦ UTIL: Discounted consumption. ◦ C: Annual consumption. ◦ udr: Utility discount rate. 10

11  Four GDP growth scenarios ◦ planned growth 12 th Five-Year Plan: 7% ◦ GDP growth scenarios: 5%, 7%, 9% and 11%  Five possible desulfurization rates ◦ desulfurization rate in 2010: 66.0% ◦ desulfurization rate scenarios: 50%, 60% 70%, 80% and 90% ◦ given exogenously due to the uncertainty of the popularizing rates of desulfurization equipment  All the scenarios are simulated: ◦ in view of China’s current economic development and energy consumption ◦ considering relevant environmental protection and greenhouse gas emission reduction 11

12 GDP growth Scenarios Primary energy consumption Electricity generation Gross SO 2 emissions Household SO 2 emissions (%)(Mtoe)(TWh)(Mt) 5% % % % SO 2 emission scenarios of China in 2015  7% growth scenario reduces 14.0% of energy consumption per unit of GDP, slightly lower than the target of 16% set in the 12 th Five-Year Plan.  The household SO 2 emissions show little change due to the single emission source, namely the direct use of coal.  SO 2 emitted by household use of petroleum gas/natural gas is ignored in this study.

13 SO 2 emission reduction scenarios 13 5% growth 7% growth 11% growth 9% growth

14 Industrial desulfurization rate needed for 12 th 5-year plan targets 14 Desulfurization rates should be raised above 70% due to the uncertainty of GDP growth. The popularization of wet-type SO 2 scrubbers and improvement of the environmental emission standards play an important role in the achievement of SO 2 control target by 2015

15 SO 2 emissions by power generation and other sectors, and SO 2 emissions intensity of power generation 15

16 This study makes a comprehensive assessment of energy related SO 2 emissions control in China’s 12 th Five-Year Plan based on a large scale non-linear integrated assessment model. 1.There is a relative large potential for China to reduce SO 2 emissions technologically and the popularization of wet-type SO 2 scrubbers and improvement of the environmental emission standards play an important role in the achievement of SO 2 control target by The improvement in energy consumption structure contributes to SO 2 and other energy related emission controls effectively, as well as the sustainable development of energy. 3.The thresholds of desulfurization for different growth scenarios, namely 5%, 7%, 9% and 11% scenarios, to achieve the SO 2 emission control target are presented in this study, as 69.9%, 72.1%, 73.8% and 77.8, respectively. 4.Future environmental policy should concentrate on the provinces which emit SO 2 seriously, like Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Henan, or relevant industrial sectors such as electric & heat power, ferrous metals and nonmetal mineral sectors. 16

17 BP (2013), "BP Statistical Review of World Energy", June, BP Publishing. IEA (2012), "Energy Balances of non-OECD Countries 2012 Edition" OECD Publishing. Kanada, M., Dong, L., Fujita, T., Fujii, M., Inoue, T., Hirano, Y., Togawa, T., et al. (2013). Regional disparity and cost-effective SO 2 pollution control in China: A case study in 5 mega-cities. Energy Policy, (In Press). doi:http://dx.doi.org/ /j.enpol Kaneko S, Fujii H, Sawazu N and Fujikura R (2010), "Financial allocation strategy for the regional pollution abatement cost of reducing sulfur dioxide emissions in the thermal power sector in China", Energy Policy. Vol. 38(5), pp Lin B, Jiang Z and Zhang P (2011), "Allocation of sulphur dioxide allowance – An analysis based on a survey of power plants in Fujian province in China ", Energy. Vol. 36(5), pp Lin W, Xu X, Ma Z, Zhao H, Liu X and Wang Y (2012), "Characteristics and recent trends of sulfur dioxide at urban, rural, and background sites in North China: Effectiveness of control measures", Journal of Environmental Sciences. Vol. 24(1), pp Lu Z, Streets DG, Zhang Q, Wang S, Carmichael GR, Cheng YF, Wei C, Chin M, Diehl T and Tan Q (2010), "Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000", Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. Vol. 10(13), pp MEP (2003), Emission standard of air pollutants for thermal power plants (GB ), Beijing: China Environmental Science Press. MEP (2011), Emission standard of air pollutants for thermal power plants (GB ), Beijing: China Environmental Science Press. NBS, China Statistical Yearbook ( ), China Statistics Press. NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment ( ), China Statistics Press. SCC (State Council of China), (2011), The Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction During the 12 th Five-Year Plan Period. Schreifels JJ, Fu Y and Wilson EJ (2012), "Sulfur dioxide control in China: policy evolution during the 10th and 11th Five-Year Plans and lessons for the future", Energy Policy. Vol. 48(0), pp Su, X., Zhou, W., Nakagami, K., Ren, H., & Mu, H. (2012). Capital stock-labor-energy substitution and production efficiency study for China. Energy Economics, 34(4), 1208–1213. doi: /j.eneco US EPA (2003). Air Pollution Technology Fact Sheet, Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) - Wet, Spray Dry, and Dry Scrubbers. EPA-452/F United States Environmental Protection Agency. [Accessed June 1, 2013]. Wang X, Liu H, Pang J, Carmichael G, He K, Fan Q, Zhong L, Wu Z and Zhang J (2013), "Reductions in sulfur pollution in the Pearl River Delta region, China: Assessing the effectiveness of emission controls", Atmospheric Environment. Vol. 76, pp Xu, Y. (2011). Improvements in the Operation of SO 2 Scrubbers in China’s Coal Power Plants. Environmental Science & Technology, 45(2), 380–385. doi: /es Zhao B, Wang S, Wang J, Fu JS, Liu T, Xu J, Fu X and Hao J (2013), "Impact of national NOx and SO2 control policies on particulate matter pollution in China ", Atmospheric Environment. Vol. 77(0), pp

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