Presentation on theme: "Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou July 30, 2013 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 1 32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE."— Presentation transcript:
Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Weisheng Zhou July 30, 2013 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 1 32ND USAEE/IAEE NORTH AMERICAN CONFERENCE JULY 28-31 · ANCHORAGE AK, USA
1.Introduction2.Methodologies3.Results and Discussion4.ConclusionsReferences 2
China’s five-year plans are a series of social and economic development initiatives. SO 2 reduction targets and results in the previous five-year plans. Source: NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (2000-2012) 3 10 th (2001-2005)11 th (2006-2010) SO 2 reduction targets10% below 2000 levels10% below 2005 levels SO 2 reduction results27.8% above 2000 levels14.3% below 2005 levels Industrial emissions meeting discharge standards79.4%97.9% Industrial desulfurization rate33.5%66.0%
SO 2 emissions of China (1992-2010) Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (1990-2012), NBS & MEP, China statistical yearbook on environment (1998-2012) 4 ↑27.8%↓14.3% 66.0% 33.5% Industrial desulfurization rate
SO 2 emissions and desulfurization rates by provinces of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 5 Above mean desulfurization rate
SO 2 emissions by sectors of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 6
Industrial desulfurization rates by sectors of China in 2010 Source: NBS, China statistical yearbook (2011) 7 Above mean desulfurization rate
8 China’s SO 2 emission reduction target in the 12th Five-Year Plan Source: State Council of China, The Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction During the 12th Five-Year Plan Period 3 provinces are allowed to increase SO 2 emissions. SO 2 emissions limit in 2015: 20.9 Mt, 8% below 2010 levels. 0.2 Mt is reserved for SO 2 emission trading pilot projects among regions and enterprises.
9 Integrated assessment model framework Two-level CES production function Technological learning
SO 2 emission calculation ◦ SO2 r : SO 2 emissions in specific region. ◦ Q rse : Energy thermal consumptions in specific region, sector and energy source. ◦ S re : Sulfur content in specific region and energy source. ◦ α re : SO 2 emission factor in specific region and energy source. ◦ δ re : Desulfurization rate in specific region and energy source. Objective function ◦ UTIL: Discounted consumption. ◦ C: Annual consumption. ◦ udr: Utility discount rate. 10
Four GDP growth scenarios ◦ planned growth 12 th Five-Year Plan: 7% ◦ GDP growth scenarios: 5%, 7%, 9% and 11% Five possible desulfurization rates ◦ desulfurization rate in 2010: 66.0% ◦ desulfurization rate scenarios: 50%, 60% 70%, 80% and 90% ◦ given exogenously due to the uncertainty of the popularizing rates of desulfurization equipment All the scenarios are simulated: ◦ in view of China’s current economic development and energy consumption ◦ considering relevant environmental protection and greenhouse gas emission reduction 11
GDP growth Scenarios Primary energy consumption Electricity generation Gross SO 2 emissions Household SO 2 emissions (%)(Mtoe)(TWh)(Mt) 5%2673530660.6 2.1 7%2818589365.0 2.2 9%3001643469.0 2.2 11%3405819380.7 2.3 12 SO 2 emission scenarios of China in 2015 7% growth scenario reduces 14.0% of energy consumption per unit of GDP, slightly lower than the target of 16% set in the 12 th Five-Year Plan. The household SO 2 emissions show little change due to the single emission source, namely the direct use of coal. SO 2 emitted by household use of petroleum gas/natural gas is ignored in this study.
Industrial desulfurization rate needed for 12 th 5-year plan targets 14 Desulfurization rates should be raised above 70% due to the uncertainty of GDP growth. The popularization of wet-type SO 2 scrubbers and improvement of the environmental emission standards play an important role in the achievement of SO 2 control target by 2015
SO 2 emissions by power generation and other sectors, and SO 2 emissions intensity of power generation 15
This study makes a comprehensive assessment of energy related SO 2 emissions control in China’s 12 th Five-Year Plan based on a large scale non-linear integrated assessment model. 1.There is a relative large potential for China to reduce SO 2 emissions technologically and the popularization of wet-type SO 2 scrubbers and improvement of the environmental emission standards play an important role in the achievement of SO 2 control target by 2015. 2.The improvement in energy consumption structure contributes to SO 2 and other energy related emission controls effectively, as well as the sustainable development of energy. 3.The thresholds of desulfurization for different growth scenarios, namely 5%, 7%, 9% and 11% scenarios, to achieve the SO 2 emission control target are presented in this study, as 69.9%, 72.1%, 73.8% and 77.8, respectively. 4.Future environmental policy should concentrate on the provinces which emit SO 2 seriously, like Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Henan, or relevant industrial sectors such as electric & heat power, ferrous metals and nonmetal mineral sectors. 16
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