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Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 15 th December 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 15 th December 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Client Logo Here Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 15 th December 2009

2 Client Logo Here Aims of Session 1.To review outcomes of secondary analysis (Core Outputs 1-4) 2.To validate the baseline HNADA calculation for affordable housing  Consider evidence from CHR  Review calculation outcomes for each HMA 3.To outline methodology for assessing the requirement for market housing 4.To present the outcomes of the HNADA market housing model

3 Client Logo Here Secondary Analysis: Core Outputs 1-4

4 Client Logo Here HNADA Core Outputs HNADA credible if “analysis delivers core outputs” Core outputs provide: Housing market intelligence Estimated ranges of need or housing requirements Housing market analysis outputs Evidence to interpret system operation Informs intervention planning Range focus: as housing markets are dynamic, definitive measures of need cannot be attained

5 Client Logo Here HNADA Core Outputs Housing Market Intelligence (Demographic & Economic Context) 1.Estimates of current dwellings 2.Analysis of housing market trends Range: Housing Requirement/Need 3.Total future households 4.Specific housing requirements 5.Current households in need 6.Future affordable housing requirement 7.Future market housing requirement 8.Future requirement for either market or affordable housing

6 Client Logo Here Demographic Context Marginal population growth (1.8%) since 2001 Marginal growth in number of households (5%)  projected 7% increase over 10 years to 53,950  single parents and single person households expected to increase by 16% (3,440) and 18% (20,170) Substantial growth in older households by 2019  75+ expected to increase by 30% (to 13,297)  65+ to increase from 20% (21,977) to 25% (28,199) of population  Shift in balance of care/housing options for older people Need for family housing decreasing by 19%  9,180 households falling to 7,410 Impact on future dwelling profile required?  Requirements from single parent/person households

7 Client Logo Here Economic Context Economic Performance since 2000  Economic growth at national and global levels  Like Scotland, Angus has enjoyed high levels of output and employment Employment Rate in Angus: 2008/09  Higher employment rate (84.3%) than Scotland (79.6%)  Higher self-employment (10.5%) than Scotland (7.6%) or UK (9.1%) Unemployment rate  Increased by 0.3% to 4.4% (April 08-March 09)  October 2009: 3.1% of population in receipt of JSA Income and Earnings  Angus average gross weekly pay = £  Scotland average gross weekly pay = £461.80

8 Client Logo Here Economic Context Employment Structure in Angus  Labour market highly dependent on skilled trade occupants (14.6%); Scotland (11.6%); UK (10.7%)  Under represented in managerial and professionally qualified occupations

9 Client Logo Here Estimate of Current Dwellings 53,713 residential dwellings (July ‘09)  71% private ownership, 20% social housing, 9% private rented sector 72% of private dwellings fail SHQS 57% of private owners own outright 2,751 vacant properties (5% stock)  84% empty homes; 16% 2nd homes Shift in Dwelling Profile since 2001  14% increase in dwellings  9% decrease in Private Rented Sector? (4,902 – 4,451?)  Social housing decrease: from 25% (11,552) of dwellings in 2001 to 20% (10,866) in 2009  Private sector increase from 75% (35,393) to 80% (42,848)

10 Client Logo Here Housing Market Trends Access to finance/low cost of borrowing Fuelled mobility in market  20% growth in market turnover between 2003 and 2007  5.4% sales turnover in 2007 (2,330) High levels of inward migration  Only 65% of sales to Angus residents between  Purchasers from Dundee have a major influence on HMAs Fuelled house price inflation (2003/07)  Increase in weighted average house prices = 84% Housing affordability issues evident  52% can’t afford LQ, 72% can’t afford WA In 2009 housing market is constrained 2008: Volume of sales fell by 30%

11 Client Logo Here Housing Market Trends Aberdeen City: 114% Aberdeenshire: 123% Dundee City: 90% Fife: 71% Perth & Kinross: 69% Median House Price Inflation  Angus: 84% increase 2008 Angus inflation = 3%

12 Client Logo Here Estimate of Future Households Over Next 10 Years… 7% increase in number of households, 364 households per annum Projected increase in households aged 65+ Decrease in households aged 16–24 (-2%) Increase in households aged (27%)  Increase in typical first time buyer group  Current market restrictions likely to impact most heavily on FTB’s given level of deposit required and restricted lending multiples relative to income  May influence demand expressed for social or private rented housing options

13 Client Logo Here 18% increase in older people (55+) by 2019 (28,590)  50% increase in households aged % of older people have disability or LLTI (14,812)  1% have mental health problems  10% frail due to old age  10% have a long term illness  12% have mobility/physical disabilities Groups with Specific Requirements

14 Client Logo Here Groups with Specific Requirements 20% households have LLTI/disability  6,113 of overall households have household member with a physical disability  4,867 have a limiting long term illness Subjective requirement for special forms of housing expressed by 2,493 households Recent increases in migrant workers (855% ) has fuelled housing need  Impact of economic recession?

15 Client Logo Here Need for Special Forms of Housing “Do you or anyone in your households have an unmet need for special forms of housing” HNADA survey “Do you or anyone in your households have an unmet need for special forms of housing” 5% of respondents said they did have a an unmet need = 2,493 households Of the 2,493 households:  25% were single people (615)  26% were couples (639)  17% were 3+ adult households (430)  27% were households with children (680)  5% were single parents (130)

16 Client Logo Here Of the 2,493 households: 50% require ground floor accommodation 32% require specialist care housing 3% require wheelchair accommodation 6% require sheltered accommodation 8% require other special forms of housing Need for Special Forms of Housing

17 Client Logo Here Of the 50% who require ground floor accommodation  46% were aged between  31% were aged 60+  17% were aged Of the 32% who require specialist care housing  41% are aged between  35% are aged between  17% are aged 60+ Of the 6% who require sheltered accommodation  75% are aged 75+  25% are aged between Of the 3% who require wheelchair accommodation  57% are aged between 45 and 49  43% are aged 75+ Need for Special Forms of Housing

18 Client Logo Here Of the 50% who require ground floor accommodation  44% own their property outright  24% have a loan or mortgage  21% rent from a housing association Of the 32% who require specialist care housing  48% have a loan or mortgage  26% own their property outright  15% are living in social housing Of the 6% who require sheltered accommodation  50% rent from Angus Council  31% own their property outright  19% are in other forms of accommodation Of the 3% who require wheelchair accommodation  58% have a loan or mortgage  42% rent from Angus Council Need for Special Forms of Housing

19 Client Logo Here Baseline Housing Need Calculation for Affordable Housing

20 Client Logo Here Plus Current Need X (a quota) Newly Arising Need Minus Equals Supply of Affordable Housing Net Shortfall/ Surplus Affordable Housing Need Calculation

21 Client Logo Here Current Need: Unsuitable Housing Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175 Concealed Households: 219 Overcrowding: 779 Special Needs: 3,194 Poor Condition: 428 Harassment: 127 Current Need = 4,922 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

22 Client Logo Here Total Current Need – Eliminate: ‘In situ solutions’:  Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680  Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514 Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242 Then eliminate % can meet need in private housing market  52% households can meet market entry price Net Current Need = 2,206 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

23 Client Logo Here Newly Arising Need New household formation: 840  Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices = 269 (32%) Existing households falling into need: 724  Change in household circumstances including annual flow of homeless households Newly Arising Estimate = 1,295 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

24 Client Logo Here Affordable Housing Supply Affordable housing relets: 1,075 Committed new affordable supply: 50 Turnover net of units taken out of management: 0 demolitions Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

25 Client Logo Here Interim Calculation Estimate Current need = 4,922  Net current need = 2,206  Net annual current need = 221 (10 years) Annual newly arising need = 1,295 Annual total need = 1,516 Annual affordable supply = 1,125 Estimated shortfall = year Est. shortfall = -3,910 Affordable Housing Need Calculation

26 Client Logo Here Calculation for Affordable Housing: CHR Validation

27 Client Logo Here Calculating the Requirement for Market Housing

28 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement Methodology Annual Inward Migration Market Entry Level Current Need for Market Housing Mid-Market Properties Upper End of Market Newly Arising Need for Market Housing Annual Internal Demand Market Supply Affordability Analysis Total Need & Demand for Market Housing Market Entry Level Mid-Market Properties Upper End of Market Match Need & Demand to Supply

29 Client Logo Here Current Need: Market Housing  North HMA: 56% CAN afford = 729  South HMA: 39% CAN afford = 490  East HMA: 52% CAN afford = 417  West HMA: 47% CAN afford = 415 Angus Gross Current Need = 2,051 Angus Annual Current Need = 205 Calculation Inputs

30 Client Logo Here Newly Forming Households  North HMA: 49% CAN afford = 40  South HMA: 38% CAN afford = 100  East HMA: 33% CAN afford = 66  West HMA: 42% CAN afford = 124 Angus Annual Need = 330 Calculation Inputs

31 Client Logo Here Annual Demand Assumptions Total Demand ‘Very Likely to move’ in next year = 1.85%  North HMA = 240  South HMA = 250  East HMA = 266  West HMA = 238 Angus ‘Like to Move’ = 994 Calculation Inputs

32 Client Logo Here Demand: In Migration (2007)  North HMA = 279  South HMA = 289  East HMA = 190  West HMA = 227 Angus In Migration = 985 Calculation Inputs

33 Client Logo Here Annual Inward Migration (2008 Sales) Current Need for Market Housing Newly Arising Need for Market Housing Annual Internal Demand 205 per annum 330 per annum 994 per annum 985 per annum = = = = Total Annual Demand = 2,514 Calculation Inputs Total Annual Need & Demand Yr 1

34 Client Logo Here Annual Inward Migration (2008 Sales) Current Need for Market Housing Newly Arising Need for Market Housing Aspirational Demand 205 per annum 330 per annum 1,418 per annum 985 per annum = = = = Total Annual Demand = 2,938 Calculation Inputs Total Annual Need & Demand Yr 1

35 Client Logo Here Total Need & Demand Split into quartiles based on affordability assessment 3.5 X’s income lending multiple Calculation Inputs

36 Client Logo Here Market Housing Supply (2007) Calculation Inputs  Sales Volume 2007 = 2,350  Modelling Assumption : Sales in Year 1 – 3 reduced by 30% Volume of sales incrementally increase from Yr 4 to year 10 by approx. 6% per annum

37 Client Logo Here Quartile 1: Shortfall North HMA: -136 South HMA: -180 East HMA: -129 West HMA: -163 Angus shortfall = -609 Market Housing Requirement Yr 1

38 Client Logo Here Quartile 1: Year 1,5,10 Market Housing Requirement

39 Client Logo Here Quartile 2: Shortfall/Surplus North HMA: -124 South HMA: -100 East HMA: -96 West HMA: -129 Angus shortfall = -450 Market Housing Requirement Yr 1

40 Client Logo Here Quartile 2: Year 1,5,10 Market Housing Requirement

41 Client Logo Here Quartile 3+: Shortfall/Surplus North HMA: 113 South HMA: -82 East HMA: 54 West HMA: 34 Angus surplus = +119 Market Housing Requirement Yr 1

42 Client Logo Here Quartile 3-4: Year 1,5,10 Surplus Market Housing Requirement

43 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2 Relates to properties below £130,000 Total Shortfall Year 1: 609 Shortfall over 10 Years: 2,568

44 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement Surpluses in Housing Q3&4 Relates to properties above £130,000 Total Surplus Year 1: 119 Surplus in East, North & West HMA’s: 201 Shortfalls in South HMA: 82 Cumulative Surplus (10 Years): 695 Total Shortfalls (All Quartiles)  Year 1 = -939  Year 5 = -745  Year 10 = -146

45 Client Logo Here Market Housing Requirement Cumulative Shortfall of Market Housing: 6,400 New Build Delivery Assumption: 2,640 (2007: 290 sales per annum) Housing Land Requirement circa 9,000?


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