Presentation on theme: "Revelation of 5.12 Quake, Sichuan, China Part 5 Post-disaster problems that require long-term concern Supercourse China 超级课程 · 中国"— Presentation transcript:
Revelation of 5.12 Quake, Sichuan, China Part 5 Post-disaster problems that require long-term concern Supercourse China 超级课程 · 中国 http://www.SuperCourse.cn/ 2008-6-6
Outline 5.1 Infrastructure reconstruction 5.2 Social Security 5.3 All that needs consideration 5.4 Accumulation of epidemiological studies 5.4.1 What should epidemiological researchers do? 5.4.2 Methodological issues of post-quake research 5.4.3 Research suggestion 5.4.4 Methodological techniques of epidemiological investigation 5.5 Disaster risk model
Infrastructure Damage 1Collapsed Buildings5.36 Million $ 2Damaged Buildings21 Million $ 3Pipes5,000 km 4Water tanks839 5Water treatment works1,281
Irrigation systems for 100,000 hectares of paddy fields > 50,000 greenhouses 7.3 million square meters of livestock barns Agricultural Damage Relief web
Livelihoods of many of affected people is highly dependent on agriculture Vulnerable to food insecurity – Loss of cereal stocks – Damaged agriculture production – Impaired income generation Agricultural Damage
Building Damage Number of damaged/collapsed: >15,000,000 Building earthquake resistant structures makes good economic sense: 3-5% for typical buildings
Giant Pandas Unknown situation of 280 giant pandas in Wolong National Nature Reserve www.iht.com
Principles of reconstruction There are four principles that the post-disaster reconstruction should follow: 1) scientific planning of development; 2) harmonization; 3) caution and thrift; 4) comprehensiveness.
Site-Selection of the Reconstruction Points: avoid the fault zone and alpine valleys, choose a relatively safe place Other considerations: problems of staff residential area as regards drinking water, transportation, national habits and cultural heritage Xhnet.com
Do not forget children in Sichuan! At least 5,498 children have been left alone in Sichuan Province's quake zone, either because they have been orphaned or their parents cannot be located
Do not forget elderly in Sichuan! About 4,800 elderly people left alone due to death of their family or they have been separated from all their relatives
Security policy of the Injured, the disabled, and orphans Building welfare house to arrange for the injured, the disabled and orphans proposed by The Home Office of Sichuan Province
The relocation protection of emigrating victims According to the initial program, in addition to temporary resettlement for victims, the victims will be funded grants, encouraged to rely on the friends and relatives. The civil affairs departments of other provinces are allowed to accept rehousing people in the disaster areas after necessary formalities.
Protection of Cultural Heritages State Ethnic Affairs Commission launched an emergency rescue program to salvage Qiang cultural heritage A-ba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture and the Beichuan Qiang Autonomous County are seriously affected by the disaster; a large number of cultural heritage are damaged; some successors of non-material cultural heritage were killed 国家民委
Drug Abuse: an example in Bam Earthquake in Iran Ali Ardalan
Substance abuse in Bam Opium abuse Prevalence before the earthquake: 30 % male, 5% female (anecdotal evidence) Norm culture A major problem in the treatment of hospitalized patients 16
Opium odor High price of opium Heroin Injection Low price of heroin Lack of money Security concern Psychological consequences of earthquake Unemployment Inadequate withdrawal services 17 Changing the pattern of substance abuse in Bam
Few earthquakes have been adequately studied epidemiologically, with the exceptions previously noted (122). It is vital that plans for follow-up epidemiology be developed before an earthquake occurs so that the initial surveillance data collected will allow proper follow-up (123). Detailed Follow-Up Epidemiology
CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE GAPS Because we do not know enough about the precise causes of deaths and nature of injuries that occur during earthquakes, relief services are often misdirected and community medical/health planning for earthquakes is often inadequate (126). The more we know about the manner in which injuries and deaths occur, the better we can prepare for and respond to earthquakes. The following are steps researchers can take to help health officials and individuals better prepare for earthquakes.
CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE GAPS (cont.) !Evaluate the role of occupant behavior in earthquake injury susceptibility. !Collect more extensive data concerning the circumstances of entrapment (e.g., location of victims in the collapsed structure). Lack of such data has made planning search and rescue actions, providing proper medical care, and requesting the appropriate outside aid more difficult.
CRITICAL KNOWLEDGE GAPS (cont.) !Incorporate postearthquake research findings into specific emergency-preparedness and response-guidance protocols. The gap between what researchers have learned and the knowledge base underlying the protocols of the "user community" (e.g., response and recovery organizations) can be lessened considerably if researchers and members of the user community interface more effectively. Results of research should be communicated to key decision-makers and citizens at national, state, and local levels so that they can incorporate such findings into community earthquake-preparedness and earthquake- response programs.
METHODOLOGIC PROBLEMS The data needed for comparative earthquake studies is often lacking, including such basic information as the magnitude or intensity of the earthquake, the number of deaths, the number of people injured (using standard definitions) and the size of the affected population (131). The study of earthquake injuries is difficult to approach from any narrow background, as it requires the active collaboration of workers having a number of areas of expertise (122). First, one must understand the mechanisms of physical failure in earthquakes. This requires structural engineering and architectural competence.
METHODOLOGIC PROBLEMS (cont.) The difficulty of collecting information on entrapped people is compounded by the fact that traditional, institutionalized sources of injury data (e.g., hospital medical records) do not usually document information such as where in a building the injury occurred, which attributes of the building contributed to the injury, the injured person's initial behavior when ground shaking began, and the circumstances of entrapment. Unfortunately, this lack of data on the circumstances of entrapment tends to hinder the development of effective search-and-rescue techniques and effective injury-prevention strategies.
METHODOLOGIC PROBLEMS (cont.) Analytic studies that establish and quantify the magnitude of the relationship between significant risk factors and injuries are also very difficult to organize and conduct in an earthquake-devastated region where most dwellings have been destroyed and populations relocated--factors that make locating injured people extremely difficult. Furthermore, in most areas of the world where major earthquakes have occurred, official census records are poor.
RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS !Seek to understand the mechanism by which people are killed or injured in earthquakes (e.g., what components of the building have directly caused trauma). Such knowledge is essential to developing effective prevention strategies (134).
RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS (cont.) !Establish detailed autopsy data on a sample of earthquake victims to determine the exact cause of death. Such information could provide the basis upon which to suggest modifications to buildings to prevent death. Similar autopsy information has been valuable in analyzing automobile crashes and making appropriate modifications to automobile interiors.
RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS (cont.) !Analyze previous building failures in the context of injury studies. The results could lead to the development of simple but effective retrofit prevention strategies designed to mitigate injury or death.
RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS (cont.) !Examine the manner in which buildings collapse during other kinds of disasters. For example, structural collapses caused by tornadoes, hurricanes, single-building construction failures, mine disasters, terrorist bombings, aircraft or train crashes, wartime experiences, and so on could provide valuable insights into the manner in which buildings collapse during earthquakes.
Tips of Methodology Take epidemiologic research after Bam Earthquake as an example: Ali Ardalan
Ethical issues of population-based research in disasters The most important point, People must be informed that the interviews are unrelated to providing information for personal service deliveries to deal with their needs. Verbal consent Confidentiality of individual information 12
13 Geographic-based sampling design in disasters A very useful tool in Bam, because of lack of a sampling frame of residential tents.
Geographic-based sampling plan Cross-road Square Selected start point Geographic zone Section 1 Section 3 Section 2 Main street 14
500 m Minor street, Alley Movement direction Tent 15 Cross-road Square Selected start point Main street Geographic-based sampling plan
500 m 16 Minor street, Alley Movement direction Tent Cross-road Square Selected start point Main street Geographic-based sampling plan
Cross-road Square as selected start point Main street Minor street, Alley Tent Movement direction 500 m 17 Geographic-based sampling plan
Limitation of cross-sectional studies in post-disaster period of Bam earthquake Potential selection bias in determining the risk factors of mortality and injuries and also their incidence estimations 18
Population movement After the earthquake Zones Earthquake-stricken area 19
20 The main construction materials of earthquake-stricken population houses based on a cross-sectional study on 19th and 20th days of post-disaster period in Bam
A consequence of cross-sectional studies in post-disaster period of Bam Total death: 40 % of population Death by cross-sectional study 18 % Selection bias - 45 % 21
Conclusion: Considering the limitations of cross- sectional and case-control studies, it seems a retrospective cohort approach, for instance, based on before-quake list of governmental employees, would be decreases the aforementioned problem. 22
30 years continuous evolution in the practice of Crisis or Disaster Management Civil defense Emergency assistance Disaster response and relief Humanitarian assistance Emergency management Civil protection Disaster mitigation and prevention Disaster Risk Management Strategic shift from managing a disastrous event to more preventive and proactive approaches!!
What is Disaster risk reduction (disaster reduction or DRR)? The conceptual framework of elements considered with the possibilities to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development !
A potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. China EarthquakeGeologicalNatural Flood, HurricaneHydro meteorological PandemicBiological DeforestationEnvironmental degradationHyman Induced Nuclear releaseTechnological What is the Hazard?
What is the Vulnerability? The conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards. Vulnerable Sichuan: oUnprepared people oNon-resistant house & school building oHigh-density population oetc.
In the case of earthquakes, vulnerability factors may be summarised as fallows: -Location of settlements in seismic areas, -Inadequate building practices and regulations, -Dense concentration of buildings with high occupancy, -The lack of warning systems and of public awareness on earthquake risks. In the developing countries, the main increase in risk can be attributed to overcrowding, faulty land-use planning and construction, inadequate infrastructure and services and environmental degradation.
The probability that a particular system or population will be affected by hazards is known as “risk”. Hence, it can be said that, Risk=Vulnerability x Hazard or, taking into account coping capacity: Risk= VulnerabilityxHazard Coping Capacity -Vulnerability has always economic, social, organisational and educational dimensions.
“Mitigation” can be defined as the permanent reduction of the disaster risk and can be categorized as “primary mitigation” which refers to reducing the presence of the hazard and of the vulnerability, and “secondary mitigation”, which refers to reducing the impact of the hazard. “Preparedness” covers the measures that insure the organized mobilization of personel, funds, equipment and supplies within a safe environment for effective relief, “response” can be defined as the set of activities implemented after the impact of a disaster in order to assess the needs, reduce the suffering, limit the spread and the consequences of the disaster and open the way to rehabilitation.
Sichuan earthquake: Risk model Maybe Sichuan was not able to modify the hazard part of the earthquake risk model, and predict it precisely, BUT they could assess their vulnerability conditions and reduced them! This has been the same experience in Bam & Kashmir, Yogyakarta !
Risk awareness & Knowledge development including education, training, research and information are of the important fields of action for Disaster Risk Reduction! Just-in-Time Education Let’s teach the communities right now !
Supercourse China has already made more just-in-time PPT about the Sichuan Earthquake, which concerned with self-rescue and mutual-help in the earthquake, public health problems, as well as the first and secondary rescue( including psychological reconstruction ) after the disaster ect. Please visit: http://www.supercourse.cn/