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An Update Crawford Jencks ------------------- July 2011 RAC Meeting NCHRP 20-83 Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry.

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Presentation on theme: "An Update Crawford Jencks ------------------- July 2011 RAC Meeting NCHRP 20-83 Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry."— Presentation transcript:

1 An Update Crawford Jencks ------------------- July 2011 RAC Meeting NCHRP 20-83 Long-Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry

2 Seven — $1.0 Million Projects 1. Freight and the economy MIT/Christopher Caplice 2. Technologies and system performance RAND Corporation/Steven Popper 3. Preservation, maintenance, and renewal Texas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson 4. Energy supplies and alternative fuels RAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson 5. Climate change PB Americas/Michael Meyer 6. Socio-demographics and travel demand NuStats/Johanna Zmud 7. Sustainability systems and organizing principles Booz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann

3 Project 20-83 Long-Term Strategic Issues WHY?  The transportation industry faces challenges today, AND it will face new and emerging challenges decades from now that may reshape transportation priorities and needs.  DOTs must be prepared to anticipate the implications of the future.  Targeted research is needed to focus on these long-term strategic issues — lessen the “surprise factor.”

4 Overall Concept 20-83 Series Avoid being constrained by the present Project outward 30-50 years Create possible, representative future “what-if” scenarios Determine factors influencing scenarios Provide guidance on monitoring those factors and assessing the results: Is change occurring? Offer strategies to state DOTs to adapt, mitigate, or revise change —Be proactive rather than reactive—

5 Program Goal No. 1: Anticipate the future issues so that we are better prepared to meet new and emerging challenges.

6 Program Goal No. 2: Explore visions of what the future should look like, so that we can help shape the future through our decision making..

7 Economic Changes Driving Future Freight Transportation Massachusetts Institute of Technology/Christopher Caplice NCHRP 20-83 (01) Provide decision makers with a critical analysis of the driving forces behind high-impact economic changes and business sourcing patterns that may affect the U.S. freight transportation system. To be completed: December 2011

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9 Expediting Future Technologies for Enhancing Transportation System Performance RAND Corporation/Steven Popper NCHRP 20-83 (02) Develop a process that transportation agencies can use to identify, assess, shape, and adopt new and emerging technologies to achieve long-term system performance objectives. To b e completed: June 2012

10 Products Practical framework for transportation professionals to think more effectively about technology. Tools to assist in technology assessment. Guidelines for agency use of the assessment results. Case study of bridge inspection technologies.

11 Long –Range Strategic Issues Affecting Preservation, Maintenance, and Renewal of Highway Infrastructure Texas A&M Research Foundation/Stuart Anderson NCHRP 20-83 (03) Guidance for transportation stakeholders on emerging materials, tools, approaches, and technologies that could be used to deal with long-range (30 to 50 years) highway infrastructure maintenance, preservation, and renewal needs and ensure satisfactory system condition and performance. To be completed: June 2013

12 Phase I Key Results Identified 67 scenario drivers for 13 technical areas Developed 78 scenarios for 13 technical areas (six per area based on negative, mid- range, and positive worlds) Aggregated 67 into 13 critical drivers – Climate Change – Economic Growth – Priority on Environmental Quality – Funding – Government Role – Mobility – Population Density – Public Commitment to Sustainability – Resources/Energy – Road Freight – Security – Technology/Innovation – Transportation Choices/Complexity

13 Phase I Results Critical Scenario Driver Impact – Examples – Economic Growth Expected Future: Some positive change with slow growth rate Alternative Future: Constant and flat or some negative change and a declining growth rate – Public Commitment to Sustainability Expected Future: More commitment with slow rate of commitment Alternative Future: Less commitment with even slower rate of commitment Final Scenarios – Multi-driver based and not Linear (under development)

14 Effects of Changing Transportation Energy Supplies and Alternative Sources on Transportation RAND Corporation/Paul Sorenson NCHRP 20-83 (04) 1)Determine how the mandate, role, funding, and operations of DOTs will likely be affected by future changes in long-term energy supply and demand 2)Identify strategies and actions that can be used by the DOTs to plan and prepare for these effects. To be completed: June 2012

15 Energy Use Scenarios Percentage of Passenger Vehicle Miles Powered By: Per-Mile Travel Costs (2011 $) Petroleu m Biofuel Natural Gas Electric ity Hydrog en Current Status ~ 94%~ 6% Negligi ble None8 to 17 cents E1: Petroleum, Low Cost ~ 90%~ 10% Negligi ble 4 to 8 cents E2: Petroleum, High Cost ~ 90%~ 10%Negligible 17 to 68 cents E3: Biofuels, Moderate Cost ~ 70%~ 30%Negligible 8 to 17 cents E4: Natural Gas, Moderate Cost ~ 45%~ 5%~ 50%Negligible 8 to 17 cents E5: Electric, Low Cost ~ 20%~ 5%Negligible~ 75%Negligible4 to 8 cents E6: Hydrogen, Moderate Cost ~ 20%~ 5%Negligible ~ 75%8 to 17 cents E7: Mixed Fuels, High Cost ~ 20%~ 5%~ 25% 17 to 68 cents Illustrative Details of Composite Energy Use Scenarios

16 ScenarioPassenger VMT Transit Mode Share Truck VMT Truck Mode Share Annual Growth Total (40 Yrs.) Annual Growth Total (40 Yrs.) Historical / Current2.6%--<2%3.5%--29% T1. High Passenger and Truck Growth 2.6%172%2%2.3%64%35% T2. Moderate Passenger and Truck Growth 1.6%86%5%1.9%47%32% T3. Low Passenger and Truck Growth 0.5%21%10%1.5%35%29% Illustrative Details of Composite Travel Scenarios

17 Federal Policy Scenarios Climate & Energy PoliciesTransportation Funding Policies Regulatory Mandates Subsidies Pricing Policies Federal Funding Federal Fuel Taxes MBUF or Expanded Tolling Variable Pricing Policies Current Status CAFE Standards, Renewable Fuel Standards Moderate R&D support, vehicle and fuel subsidies None Significant but diminishing Losing real value per mile of travel Limited Limited application of congestion tolls P1. Conservative Policy Scenario Modest increases to CAFE and RFS standards Moderate R&D support, more limited vehicle and fuel subsidies None Federal program continues to diminish Not increased significantly Limited Limited application of congestion tolls P2. Moderate Policy Scenario Modest increases to CAFE and RFS standards Moderate R&D support, more limited vehicle and fuel subsidies None Federal program expands moderately Increased in the near term (e.g., 50 cents per gallon) Introduced in the 2020 timeframe Moderate application of congestion tolls P3. Aggressive Policy Scenario Aggressive increases to CAFE, modest increase to RFS Greater funding for R&D, vehicle, and fuel subsidies Carbon tax or cap and trade along with vehicle feebate programs Federal program expands considerably Significantly increased in the near term (e.g., 75 cents per gallon) Introduced in the 2020 timeframe Extensive use of congestion tolls, weight- distance truck tolls, fees based on emissions Illustrative Details of Federal Policy Composite Scenarios

18 Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts and Adaptation Approaches PB Americas/Michael Meyer NCHRP 20-83 (05) 1)Synthesize the current state of worldwide knowledge regarding the probable range of impacts of climate change for the period 2030- 2050 2)Recommend institutional arrangements, tools, approaches, and strategies that state departments of transportation (DOTs) can use during system planning, design, construction, operations, and maintenance to adapt infrastructure and operations to these impacts and lessen their effects. To be completed: March 2012

19 Preliminary U.S. Climate Changes: 2010-  2050 Average Annual Temperature: Lower 48, +4°F; Upper Midwest, +5-6°F; Coastal Regions, +2-3°F; Alaska, +6-7°F U.S. Winter Temperatures: Less than average annual change but magnitude uncertain. U.S. Summer Temperatures: Greater than average annual change but magnitude uncertain. Annual Precipitation: Wetter in the eastern U.S.; drier in the west, south-central, deep south, and Florida; much wetter in Alaska. Sea Level Rise (intermediate model): Average, 6.4±3.5 inches; maximum, 16.8 inches (LA); minimum, -5.6 inches (AK). Extreme Events: Decrease of 1-3 weeks of days below freezing; increase in north of days with >0.4 inches of rainfall. ALL ESTIMATES HAVE HIGH DEGREES OF UNCERTAINTY!

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23 Effects of Socio-Demographics on Travel Demand NuStats/Johanna Zmud NCHRP 20-83 (06) Determine how socio-demographic factors are likely to affect travel demand over the next 30 to 50 years and to identify strategies and actions that can be used by policymakers in state and local transportation and planning agencies to plan and prepare for alternative future scenarios. To be completed: March 2012

24 1 st interim report identified key drivers … Individual-Level: Population Size and Growth Geo-Demographics of Population Size and Growth Household Structure and Composition Household-Based Economic Activity Cultural and Social Diversity Macro Level: External Factors Intertwined with Socio-Demographics External Factors that Impact Scenario Analysis

25 Phase 3 Technical Memo examined 4 broad scenarios: Momentum – gradual changes without radical shifts Technology Triumphs – technology solves all problems Global Chaos – collapse in globalism and sustainability Gentle Footprint – widespread shift to low-impact living Key assumptions and indicators will be identified for each scenario. Future tasks will model how DOTs can predict, influence, and adapt to these scenarios.

26 Sustainable Transportation Systems and Sustainability as an Organizing Principle for Transportation Agencies Booz Allen Hamilton/John Wiegmann NCHRP 20-83 (07) Provide a framework for transportation agencies to use to identify and understand the future trends and external forces that will increasingly put pressure on their ability to carry out their responsibilities to (1) meet society’s evolving demand for transportation services and (2) meet society’s emerging need to operate on a more sustainable basis. To be completed: September 2012

27 Major Drivers… Government and Politics Change in governance New Funding Mechanism Increasing Security Concerns Increasing Regulations Changes in funding levels FUTURE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ENVIROMENT Technology Advanced information technology Medical advances Genetic engineering and nanotechnology Economics Emerging Asian economies Increased U.S. dependence on foreign trade Increased economic integration Increased transportation costs Demographic and Social Factors Population growth More diverse and older population Diverse family structures Changes in urban development Changing work and life patterns Environment and Energy Increased demand and/or restrictions for natural resources Climate changes Increased use of alternative fuels Biodiversity loss Water scarcity Geo-physical changes

28 Overview of the research…

29 December 2010 Workshop & Supplemental Scan of Scientific and Technological Advances NCHRP 20-83A

30 Workshop held Dec. 8-9, 2010 SCOR Principal Investigators Panel Chairs PIs presented research approaches and summarized early work efforts Discussion of potential NCHRP 20-83 topics No new topics selected Workshop report available at: http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp ?ProjectID=2934 http://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp ?ProjectID=2934

31 Communication Plan and Presentation Materials NCHRP 20-83B SCOR anticipates a need for a communication plan to identify the most effective methods and venues for disseminating this information. The requested funding of $500,000 will enable the development and implementation of a communications plan for the entire series of projects. SCOR requested a detailed scope of work be presented for review at their Fall 2011 meeting.

32 Crawford Jencks Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Transportation Research Board cjencks@nas.edu 202/334-3233 Thank you!

33 Thoughts about the Future When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened. John M. Richardson, Jr., American University In times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. Eric Hoffer, American writer 1902-1983 If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less. General Eric Shinseki, retired Chief of Staff, U.S. Army


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